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EKLUND TELLS YOU EXACTLY WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE NORTHEAST 10-11 |
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To note... I know many of you found me this summer searching for rumors, and don't fret, NHL rumors are ALWAYS my top priority. Success on the internet is about specialties and I am VERY aware what my specialty is and why you choose hockeybuzz as a place to visit. I will not forget who brought me to this dance. You all.
Everyday I will call my sources...today I am focused firmly on Souray, Redden, The Wild backup spot, the health of Michael Leighton, and of course the NY Isles search for a top powerplay D-man with the unfortunate shoulder injury to Mark Streit over the weekend.
When I get new info on any of these topics you will have it.
But this week I will join the pundit world and begin my predictions for 2010-11. I do this for fun only (no wagering) and also to hear your opinions.
I thought I would get the hardest two divisions to pick out of the way right off the bat...The Central and the Northeast...and in my opinion the hardest of all is the Northeast.
Spoiler alert! I am alarmingly accurate with predictions, so if you want to enjoy the drama of this NHL season you may want to not read this blog. It may take the fun out of it. So here goes... (God help me)
EKLUND TELLS YOU EXACTLY WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE NORTHEAST 10-11
(aka: Who am I cursing with my praise.)
Last year many called this "the weakest division in hockey" or "a division in transition." The great irony was the division ended up yielding 4 of 8, in other words HALF, the playoff teams in the Eastern Conference.
Buffalo, Ottawa, Boston, and Montreal. And the technically "worst" team in the division to make the playoffs did the most damage, and Boston was 1 game, hell 1 goal, away from a purely Northeastern Conference Final against Montreal.
What went right in the Northeast 09-10?
GOALTENDING.
In Boston, Rask was a phenom.
In Montreal, Halak was the ultimate playoff spoiler.
In Buffalo, Miller showed why he is the best in the world and how a goalie can be a captain without the "C."
In Ottawa, Elliott showed up huge in the regular season when LeClaire went down, essentially carrying the Sens to the 5th seed.
What went wrong in Northeast 09-10?
SCORING.
Ranking the Divisions average GF in 2009-2010
1. Southeast 241.14
2. Pacific 241
3. Central 233.2
4. Atlantic 231.8
5. Northwest 230.6
6. Northeast 219.14
And if you were to rank the 16 teams who made the playoffs...
1. Washington 318
2. Vancouver 272
3. Chicago 271
4. San Jose 264
5. Pittsburgh 257
6. Colorado 244
7. LA Kings 241
8. Philadelphia 236
9. Buffalo 235
10. Detroit 229
11. Phoenix 225
11. Nashville 225
11. Ottawa 225
14. New Jersey 222
15. Montreal 217
16. Boston 206
Perhaps more remarkable....
The Division had ZERO top twenty scorers in the NHL, and only 5 of the top 50 scorers in the NHL played in the Northeast.
Alfredsson 71 points (25th in NHL)
Plekanec 70 points (28th)
Derek Roy 69 points (32nd)
Tim Connolly 65 points (44th)
Pominville 62 points (50th)
Goal scorers... Only 1 in the top 30?
The oft controversial Phil Kessel notched 30 goals in 70 games.
Get the point?
As the goalies go, so goes the division....
So let's rank the goalies...
GAA:
Rask #1 in the NHL: 1.97
Miller #2: 2.22
Elliott #20: 2.57
Price #31: 2.77
Giguere #36: 2.85 (but 2.57 with Leafs)
On What the Teams Have Done to Fix This....
On Ottawa...
For a division that couldn't score, the teams didn't exactly go nuts and bring in the snipers. Arguably the biggest splash was made by Ottawa in bringing in Gonchar...He will help them a great deal on the power play, but he also is prone to turnovers when pressed. Ottawa lost their best defensman and maybe the best defensive shot blocker in the game in Volchenkov. So Elliott will have to be better. As will Spezza, who is maybe "potentially" the best forward in the division.
On Boston...
The Bruins addition of Tyler Seguin has the most offensive potential, but he is very young, and the Bruins are going to be without Savard for perhaps a very long time. I love the addition of Horton, but he is a huge unknown as are most that come from Florida as of late..Bergeron's health will have to be better and the Bruins will need Krejci to be all he was last season...They will get goals from Recchi, but at this point Recchi shouldn't be counted on to give you actual top line numbers. The risk of Rask having a bit of a sophomore slump is there...however I get the sense that Tim Thomas will return to be a factor. Thomas wasn't terrible at all last year....finishing with 18th in GAA 2.56 and 16th .915 in Sv%.
On Buffalo...
The Sabres lost some key transitional defenders, and their offense may suffer a bit. Roy was solid last year, but Vanek simply MUST be better. Miller is the best in the biz, but the Sabres still don't have a viable, definitive backup goalie plan. The drop off from the best goalie in the NHL to Lalime's 2.81, .907 is too great. Miller went 41-18-2 in 69 games. Lalime went 4-8-2 in 19 games....so he not only only won 4 times in 19 games, he only actually was credited with a decision in 14 of the 19 games, meaning he didn't even play entire games. I often compare Buffalo to the Rangers because of how heavily both teams depend on a star goalie. The Sabres stuck with Lalime this season, while the Rangers addressed the backup with Marty Biron.
As for Toronto and Montreal, I have already written about them at length a week ago when comparing them to each other.
On the Leafs...
The Leafs added nice depth at forward with Armstrong, Macarthur, Brown and arguably a top 6 in Versteeg. The Leafs added Lebda too, who I really think may turn into a steal. But the Leafs additions of Phaneuf and Giguere for an entire season will also be huge.
On Montreal...
The Habs added depth up front with Boyd and Halpern, and a potential top 3 guy in Eller. They will get a full year out of Subban but really must hope Markov can stay healthy when he returns late October. And they must hope that a team who squeaked into the playoffs last year can do so again without their MVP down the stretch and in the playoffs playing in St. Louis...
So I put this on Twitter today and the consensus order of finish was...
On the Popular Picks... (essentially, the majority thinks the division stays true to form last year...
1. Boston
2. Buffalo
3. Ottawa
4. Montreal
5. Toronto.
On My picks...
My picks are going to mirror more of what I think will happen in this goalie led division...but again you could put these names in a hat and have the same chance...I could see 4 teams making the playoffs again as well...if Price is all he was before last year.
1. Buffalo
2. Toronto
3. Boston
4. Montreal
5. Ottawa
What is your prediction?
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