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Kekalainen at the Draft: Recap - and what it means for Columbus

March 22, 2013, 12:08 PM ET [2 Comments]
Chip McCleary
St Louis Blues Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
So in four prior articles, I recapped the draft selections that the Blues made under Jarmo Kekalainen. (Links below.) Yes, there were misses along the way – but there were also some pretty noticeable hits, and there’s still a chance for a surprise or two along the way. That’s great for Blues fans, and hopefully we continue to reap the rewards of those drafts and it translates into a Cup down the road – but Kekalainen has moved on to Columbus. What should fans of the Blue Jackets expect going forward in the draft?

The first thing to realize is that picks won’t be made on the basis of organizational need. Period. It’s going to be “best player available.” That generally holds true for most teams, but fans typically look at the current NHL team and say, “we need ____ - go get one in the draft!” as if this is the NFL or NBA and you can immediately plug a guy into the lineup. It can take 3-5 years (and occasionally more) for a guy to finally be NHL ready; by then, your current strength may be a weakness, and what you thought was a weakness may suddenly become a strength. Maybe if he’s truly indifferent between a couple players, he looks at expected needs – but that almost never happens. When the draft rolls around, the list is pretty much set and there’s enough of a difference between guys to rank them definitively – and then it’s just a matter of crossing off names that get called and taking the top name remaining on the list.

There also won’t be many “safe” picks – especially once you get out of the first round. Prepare for a lot of “really, he took that guy?” discussions. Jarmo doesn’t mind taking chances; he’s a “swing for the fences” guy. To him, a lot of safe picks gets you a decent but not really good team; he’s interested in building a great team that’s going to be great over the long haul. He’s also not interested in “who will get to the NHL first?” but wants “who’s going to have the best career?” What Central Scouting, ISS, McKeen’s or anyone else thinks about a prospect (and ranks him accordingly) is largely irrelevant to Kekalainen. Yes, that’s going to result in misses – but it’s also going to result in some big hits when he’s right. Even when you look at Blues picks that didn’t make it to the NHL (yet?), you can see a few guys like Carl Soderberg and Konstantin Barulin who clearly have talent.

As much as some people think Kekalainen prefers European-born players, the truth is he doesn’t have any preference – so picks are going to come from all over. Talent is talent, no matter where it’s from – and it doesn’t matter if the guy is from Kazakhstan or Las Cruces, New Mexico. In JK’s world, if you taken the Canadian / American player because “yeah his ceiling is lower, but he may be easier to sign” you’re cheating yourself and the system going forward. If anything, expect him to invest resources in amateur scouting to get solid coverage, and to build trust in the guys he has in place to find the players he wants.

Finally, expect a renewed commitment to the farm system and player development. Columbus has generally done a decent job with this, but it will get more attention going forward. If there’s one criticism of the Blues organization (and this goes back before JK’s time there), it’s that they’ve generally done a poor job of developing guys. Most current Blues players that came up through the Blues system (the exceptions being Jackman, Polak and Reaves) spent minimal to no time in the AHL – and the guys who’ve spent time in the AHL have generally struggled to adapt to the NHL game. How much of that is “he wasn’t a great pick” and how much of that is “player development sucks?” I don’t know, and it’s a topic I’ll revisit down the road. However, all the “smart, great” picks that get made won’t matter if the guy has to go to the AHL for a season or two and he’s not getting readied for the NHL while there.

Bottom line: some people are likely to get frustrated with the picks Kekalainen makes at the draft going forward. That's to be expected. However, patience is going to be necessary. Even in his two prior stops, there was no "perfect draft" where every pick hit and every guy in that draft went on to be a roster player for years to come. (Hell, there hasn't been a "perfect draft" where every player taken by a team even hit the NHL for at least a game.) Yes, he's going to miss on picks - and it's going to suck and you'll look back 5 years later and say, "how could you not take _____?" (If anyone has that crystal ball to accurately make those predictions now, there's teams that will pay you a lot of money.) However, even in the Eastern Conference where things are going to get much tougher, don't be surprised to see Columbus rise and become a force courtesy of a slew of solid picks make by Kekalainen and the staff he puts together.

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In case you missed them, or just want to look through again, the links to my prior discussions of the Blues drafts from 2003-2010.

2003-2004
2005-2006
2007-2008
2009-2010

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Days to the trade deadline: 12

Number of teams likely selling: 6 (Florida, Philadelphia, Washington, Tampa Bay, Colorado, Calgary)

Potential other sellers: Buffalo, Nashville

Later tonight: random thoughts about the Blues and the NHL – including discussion about the rumored sale/move of the Peoria Rivermen and the potential affiliation with the Chicago Wolves.
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