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Where Do We Go From Here? Habs At The Quarter Mark |
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The Montreal Canadiens aren’t a good hockey club at this point. There was reason to think they were better than they were in the standings, and there still is, but key injuries and key players performing at a level below their own standing has hurt the club. Add to that the glaring hole at LD, that was nearly filled by rookie Victor Mete, and the Canadiens inability to put pucks past goalies with regularity and you get a team that languishes at the bottom of the standings by late November.
The Habs are 8-11-2 as of today for 18 points. Oddly enough, they are only 5 points out of the 8th seed, but the teams in the 9, 10 spot have 4 more points than the Habs and 2 games in hand to go with it. I will speculate the Canadiens are really about 6 points out with no room for error. I had mentioned in my blogs during this home stand that the Canadiens NEEDED 5 wins to really erase that terrible start and put themselves firmly in the playoff mix. Well, they went 2-3-1 at home and were shut out twice…. This was the opportunity to take control of their season, to steal it back from the “fans” who are begging for heads to roll. But, they failed to make it happen and here we are. We are looking ahead at the quarter mark asking: What now?
There is a lot of chatter surrounding the Canadiens Hockey Club lately. There is a strong push for immediate changed ranging from Geoff Molson stepping down as President of the Club, firing Marc Bergevin, firing Claude Julien, trading Carey Price, trading Max Pacioretty, and preparing for years of non playoff hockey. All in the name of winning, because its very easy to acquire a 1st overall pick like Sidney Crosby and it all but assures success… Right?
I will try to give you my slant on what will, and maybe should happen, regarding some of the many topics making the rounds on sports shows and social media.
Carey Price. The “Price isn’t really hurt” storyline is starting to gain more steam and even had another pallet tossed onto the fire today by Montreal Gazette contributor Stu Cowen.
Cowen has no real evidence of his suggestion that Price isn’t really injured, but suggests it anyways based on the team saying the injury is minor and it going on for 2+ weeks now. There are others who are suggesting its Carey Price’s insatiable love life that is why he didn’t play well and is now subsequently scratched while the team attempts to trade him…. Jesus…. This is actual info out there that people are spreading folks. I won’t discuss that any further, but let’s speculate on actual hockey matters.
So, a great idea is to trade Carey Price at a time when he is playing his worst hockey in 8 years and is injured. This idea is beyond idiotic. What kind of sense would it make to take your teams best asset, and best player, and deal him at a time when he is failing your team for an extended period for the first time in nearly a decade? Add to that the injury. You really think this is when you should trade a player many can argue is not only the best goaltender in the NHL, but can be arguably a teams most valuable player? You would get pennies on the dollar and get to watch him regain his form after the trade while you wait for prospects to do anything and clutch the picks you got in return. It is the worst idea of all the ones out there at the moment. Is his contract expensive? Yup, but he is mostly worth it. Is he the leader of your team? Yup. Should a team abandon its best player for the last 8 years because of 5 weeks of bad hockey? Nope. Give your head a shake folks. I also don’t care if he’s out making the rounds like the milk man, not my business. If you don’t think these egomaniacal hockey players are out making new friends all the time then you’re extremely naive and don’t know many guys who played high level hockey. These guys think they are God’s gift to the world and enjoy when others know it. It means nothing. It’s just a story that gets clicks.
Alright, lets get on with it...
FIRE EVERYBODY!
Ok, so let’s fire Bergevin because he let Radulov walk (despite admitting to offering the same as Dallas) and Markov bolted to the KHL. There is a growing sentiment that if the Habs had Markov the season would be different. I was a big Markov fan and I wanted him to stay but for around $3 million per season, and preferably on a one year deal. Markov would have helped our PP, no doubt about it. Markov would help our leadership, sure I can buy that despite it being well documented that he was a quiet, not very vocal leader. But if you think Markov would have helped Price and Montoya go from SP%’s of .877 and .863 to the required .910-.915 then you are lost. Markov would not fix whatever cold spell Price is on or helped him from getting injured. At best Markov would have helped the PP and been a smart, but less mobile, defender. Definitely helpful considering the circumstances we see today, but I daresay they would still be where they are standings wise AND I would bet people would be saying we have to trade the soon to be 39 year old before he slows even further or gets injured in the first year of the 2 year deal it would have required to make him stay.
Radulov took off for possibly more money and to play with studs like Seguin and Benn. Bergevin’s only option to keep Radulov was to give him 7+ million by 6 years or the same offer he signed by 7 years, so paying nearly 7 million until he is 37 years old and showed his MTL point potential to be in the 50+ point range. “He’s already on pace to smash that in Dallas Smillie!” You’re right, now please show me where Seguin and Benn are on the Habs roster because that’s why he should get more points. You can’t? OK, sit down.
Did Bergevin think he would lose both players? Nope, bet you he didn’t and when he did he panicked by making two low risk, but also very ugly signings in Streit and Hemsky. This is where I will say MB screwed up. Instead of focusing on signing band aids that have lost most of their ability to play competitively in the NHL, he should have been looking at forcing Sakic’s hand in a deal for Duchene (not that he has done anything to justify the massive overpayment OTT made so far, but this would have been prior to the season and he is much younger than Radulov). This is something that a GM like Sather or Nill would have done, they would have made the move necessary to get better before the season, not sign old and broken players and make a statement like “I think the Defense is better than last years”. This is where Bergevin is earning the criticism, he played hardball figuring he would land one of his two big fish but they swam away instead so he bought some frozen haddock that was past its “Best Before” date, then ate it.
DO I THINK FIRING BERGEVIN AT THIS POINT WILL MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE?
Not really and I’ll tell you why. The Habs shouldn’t be this bad. The team gave young kids a chance up front, which we have all wanted to see for years, and with that comes growing pains. Unavoidable. It was a risk no matter what, but it would be nice to have an NHL established, under 30 years old, top 6 scorer to help with the possibility of the youth having a cold stretch. The biggest issue is also the one where Bergevin firmly planted his foot in his mouth, defence. The defence was starting to hinge on a 19 year old rookie being able to play top pair to make up for the fact they had 2 #4 D, 2 #6 D, and 3 scratch/AHL level D outside of Shea Weber. I don’t think Petry has played to his standard so he can be better. I know its very popular to pile on Alzner right now, but he was one of the better players in the early stages of the season and sometimes players struggle when they are asked to do more than they are capable of. Alzner is a very good second pair D man, in my opinion. But when everyone is struggling, everyone starts pointing fingers and fancy stats lovers are pointing fingers and toes at Alzner not only due to to play, but due to Bergevin signing him in the offseason for maybe $500,000 more than he should get. ***Psst, guess what? Montreal will have to stupidly over pay for everyone to come to MTL unless they are from the province because of taxes, media, weather, and language. Get over it or cheer for someone else***
There was no way to anticipate the teams greatest issue this season and that is goaltending. It was literally the one thing you felt you could count on and it went from top 5 level to bottom 3 level. Firing Bergevin doesn’t fix this.
In fact, lets say some get their wish and MB is fired. Who will replace him? The best and brightest hockey mind available? The clearly most qualified candidate? You already know the answer to this and its NO. They must, for the sake of the media, engage in a prejudiced hiring campaign to hire a candidate that speaks French and English, therefore limiting your potential exponentially because despite what PM Trudeau would like you to believe, the best of everything doesn’t always come from Quebec.
So the Canadiens will hire someone who is likely in the organization already and has been working the same plan forward that you wanted Bergevin fired for. Yeah, sounds like top notch logic there. Toss the team into turmoil and let the players not only face the vicious media to answer questions about their own play, but add to that questions about the firings and possible trades. That’s sure to get everyone in locker room motivated…. Motivated to get the F out of Montreal maybe.
Bergevin hasn’t been terrible, the drafting has been spotty for sure though (outside of D and G prospects). The smart thing to do would be to focus on drafting high potiontial, bright forwards. Like Poehling and Ikonen this summer. Let Bergevin work on more deals like the Danault and a 2nd for Weise and Fleischmann. No more buying 4th liners for low picks, I agree, but to fire the GM, send the team into turmoil, and then try to trade with an new GM that wasn’t hired based on merit, but based on linguistic ability 1st and hockey management ability 2nd isn’t going to help this team right now. You fire Bergevin only to hire a no namer while other smart candidates are ignored because they “only” speak English to fix a team thats biggest issues is performance of its stars followed by D depth just makes no sense.
You must let this season run its course as is. You don’t trade stars at their lowest value, while they are injured, and while your team is swirling the drain. If you want to make moves you wait until closer to the deadline, and thats not to say I’m advocating for Price to be dealt. I’m not saying that at all. But guys like Shaw, Mitchell, Benn, Plekanec, and Morrow should be put in positions to succeed to grow value come February and flipped for the best return of Prospects and picks you can get. Hopefully, you get your top 5 pick this year as its loaded, try to make a smart signing or off season trade, and let these veterans come back with a chip on their shoulder looking for redemption. There isn’t one “expert” in the media that predicted the Habs collapse (unless it was intentional trolling) and there is NO ONE that predicted Price would play like Montoya for 5 weeks to start the season either. You don’t blow up the team because of a fluke start and injuries.
THAT SAID….
This team needs to make moves that actually help their team and take into account their self imposed handicaps of: Being an undesirable UFA destination unless overpaid, Having management that isn’t hired based on ability to build successful hockey teams as 1st priority, and media volatility.
This team will not be able to offer what virtually every other NHL city can because of the above mentioned reasons so how do you improve?
You take a season like this in which the unexpected happened (Price performance/injury, Forwards going completely dry) and let it play out by assisting the drop to the best lotto position available. This sounds counter to my positive mantra and my writings above to stay the course. I argue it’s not against that at all. The core is mostly there for a good team, but sometimes seasons are lost due to injury and subpar performance. Being that you can’t just toss money at the top UFA’s and have a good shot at them chosing you over the other 16 offers they have you must draft well. Montreal has had difficulty drafting F’s. So, ride the swirl down the drain, trade non core/aging players that won’t be around in the next 2-3 years anyways at the deadline and draft, and get yourself a ticket to the Dahlen show.
Remember the Habs were one lotto ball from Matthews when they last missed the playoffs. If they can secure a top 5 draft pick this year it would help more than anything else Bergevin would be able to do via trade. This should be goal #1 by the end of January or sooner (depending how many more games they lose between now and the new year). The Canadiens need to win 39 of their remaining 61 games (.639 win %) to have the 96 points that will likely be necessary to qualify for the post season. Are the Canadiens likely to only lose 22 games over the next 61 when they have lost 11 of 21 already? Doesn’t seem likely, so best to lay out a road map to the draft sooner rather than later.
Once you know for certain this team isn’t going to be able to compete for the Cup (which I’m sure many of us agree with, or are damn close, already) you start pushing GM’s to find out who’s looking for what and what you can start to prepare to offer them for pieces you want in return that you will convince them they can “spare”. This is the GM and his assistants job at this point and only until the end of the season will I pass my judgement on them for how they handled this season. But I don’t want to see Price, Weber, Pacioretty, Drouin, Gallager, Danault, Hudon, Lehkonen, or Mete dealt. You can build around these players and have the likes of Juulsen, Poehling, Ikonen, Carr, and whoever they can get with their high draft pick who may be able to step in right away. Especially if its Dahlen, Svechnikov, Zadina, or Wahlstrom (my personal favorite outside of Dahlen and Svehcnikov due to high end offensive ability. Think C Keller).
If the management team manages to make panicked, band aid trades to save the season only to fail out anyway with a 10-14 pick then I will start to agree with the masses (with regards to leadership changes in management). If they aren’t thinking of the long term game plan and taking into account the roadblocks they will never be rid of that I mentioned previously when chasing star UFA talent, then they aren’t effectively managing the team to future success. They would be working towards self preservation, and caving to media/fan pressure and as professional managers they shouldn’t be doing that. They should be thinking of improving the Canadiens long term around their still effective core until they get the news they aren’t in charge of doing that anymore.
Until then, you are forced to stay the course for the sake of the team, as weird as that sounds. Panic trades and firings don’t do anything to help the team. Look at how we all, myself very much included, piled on Joe Sakic’s handling of the Duchene situation. No one knew what Sakic was doing and we all thought he was destroying his team after a historically bad season. Now, his teams top players are performing much better than last year (MacKinnon, Barrie, Landeskog), they are supplemented by young players like Rantanen and Kerfoot, and are in 8th despite getting subpar goaltending. Add to that the absolute top notch return he got for Duchene in good prospects S Girard, V Kamenev, second tier prospect S Bowers, 2018 1st round pick (Sens), 2018 2nd round pick (Nash), 2018 3rd round pick (Sens), and back up A Hammond. This is so much more than any of us thought Duchene would get, and judging by his performance so far its been a MASSIVE overpayment. But, Sakic waited until a GM (Dorion) was so infatuated with acquiring Duchene that he gave permission to Sakic to work out a deal with Pred’s GM Poile for Turris. Despite all of us arm chair GM’s talking about how Sakic had to be replaced and was the worst GM since Mike Milbury he went out and got way more than he deserved for Matt Duchene and completely took a contending teams GM (Dorion) for a ride. The impossible is possible, and sometimes we think we know better when we actually know very little.
If this is the Habs fate this season, to spiral out to a bottom place finish, then so be it. Just don’t sell off your best assets at their lowest value when other GM’s feel they may be able to fleece you because your panicking to save your job. You don’t completely destroy a management team that hasn’t been horrible either, they deserve a chance to handle this situation effectively. Throwing more chaos into the mix and looking for the next somewhat capable manager who’s best asset is his ability to speak French to media is not going to help at all. NOT. AT. ALL.
With that, I’ll end this rant. Go enjoy the day folks, it’s just a game at the end of the day.
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Montreal Canadiens Blogger • 
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