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Projecting The Canadiens Forward Lines Part 2: Line 1B

August 17, 2017, 12:26 AM ET [268 Comments]
Brandon Smillie
Montreal Canadiens Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
As we patiently wait for Bergevin to spend $8.5 million dollars worth of Geoff Molson's money I will be providing my take on the Montreal Canadiens Forward Lines heading into the 2017-2018 season.

In my previous article I provided some information on why I believe the Canadiens "First" line will be Pacioretty, Danault, and Gallagher. I believe this line will be trusted with much of the offensive production as well as some of the tougher defensive assignments this upcoming season.

I tossed up the "quote fingers" when labeling them the "First" line because I think the "Second" line will end up being the Canadiens most offensive while being somewhat sheltered from the oppositions top pair D match up.

Line 1B: Jonathan Drouin, Alex Galchenyuk, Artturi Lehkonen.

Looking at this line makes me think of the Minnesota Wild "second" line last season: Niederatter, Granlund, Zucker. Now I know that lines change but that was a potent line for the Wild and ended up showing that Granlund and Niederatter are effective, first line type players.

I feel this will be what also transpires in Montreal this season. I also think that Galchenyuk and Drouin are likely to take turns at center depending on who is playing more effectively at the position and perhaps establishing one as Montreals new top center in the process.

Last season the 22 year old Jonathan Drouin had a successful season posting 21 goals and 32 assists in 73 games for the Tampa Bay Lightning while averaging 17:42 of ice time a game. Those totals include 9 goals and 17 assists on the power play and there's high hopes he can continue his special teams dominance in Montreal, where the Habs ranked 13th in the NHL.

This was really Drouin's second full season of NHL work (not counting his 21 game season the year prior) so when you look at his stats it's clear he has the potential to become an elite talent in the league. Looking at his career arc so far he has posted point totals of: 4 goals and 28 assists in 70 games, 4 goals and 6 assists in 21 games, and 21 goals and 32 assists in 73 games. He managed to produce a very good CF% of 52.7% so he is a possession driver. There is a strong possibility Drouin sets new career highs with all the drama from Tampa Bay in the rear view mirror.

Drouin is likely to get a chance or two at center but his face off percentage last year of 43.6% must be 50% or better for him to remain there. He didn't take a full time centers worth of draws last year, 220 draws/96 won, so I would pay close attention to the Canadiens camp this summer. If the staff have him taking draws regularly then it's pretty clear he will have his opportunity. The potential for Montreal to send out an all out attack "second" line like this should be exciting for Canadiens fans.

Alex Galchenyuk, 23 years old, should receive the opportunity to center this line immediately. We all can see the dazzling offensive potential of Galchenyuk's game, but he always appears soft and his intensity is consistent in its inconsistency. This season must be the one where he asserts himself as a top 6, or better, NHL player. A veteran of 5 seasons now, Galchenyuk should be handed this golden opportunity to play with a stud like Drouin and an energetic shooter in Lehkonen. There's no more worrying about locker room dancing with PK, no more flashing tattoos on instagram, just time to buckle down and learn to be a pro like Shea Weber. It's time for him to take control of his career and be the dominant offensive player we all know he can be.

Galchenyuk posted 17 goals and 27 assists in 61 games last season. He also dealt with his fair share of injuries and they clearly impacted his play. His CF% dropped season over season from 53.4% to 50.4%. So, while he still was likely to be on the right side of puck possession, he clearly didn't play at the same level of his career best year in the 2015-2016 season.

A big issue with Galchenyuk has been his ability to win draws. This should be an ability he, or Drouin for that matter, can improve with the skill he possesses. Last season he won 274 of 642 draws for a win percentage of 42.7%. That's a full 5% drop from the season prior. Galchenyuk also averaged 15:56 TOI per game and produced 6 goals and 9 assists on the power play.

All in all, last year was a significant step back in development for a player that just got a big raise this summer. If he can improve his face off ability, consistency, and work ethic this should be the season Galchenyuk finally arrives at his perceived potential.

I didn't agree with him being played on the fourth line in last seasons playoff series where goals were not easy to come by and I have to figure Galchenyuk was either hurt or broke a team rule to earn such a place during the most crucial point of the season. I know he isn't good defensively but being put on the 4th line was a message to the player. To me, that was a move that could get a coach fired but I also believe Julien isn't that inept, in fact I believe just the opposite. I think he's an incredibly astute coach who has respect league wide. So, let's hope whatever issues last year presented are in the past and Galchenyuk comes into camp focused and ready to work.

The final piece of this trio should be 22 year old sophomore winger Artturi Lehkonen.

Lehkonen was a revelation for Canadiens fans as last season progressed. Lehkonen averaged 13:52 TOI per game in a mostly 3rd and 4th line role with very limited power play time. In his rookie season he produced 18 goals and 10 assists in 73 games with a shooting percentage of 11.4% on 158 shots. With a second line role, and an increased role on the power play, with two gifted players like Drouin and Galchenyuk Lehkonen should produce more than 200 shots and if he scores at a similar rate to last season he could score 22 or more goals next season.

Lehkonen was on the positive side of fancy stats as well with a CF% of 52.8%. This would bode well for the success of the entire line as they are all possession drivers. Add in that they should likely see teams secondary defensive and penalty killing units and they should be a consistent offensive threat all season with the potential to see all three players create new career highs, if one of Galchenyuk or Drouin can perform well at center.

Artturi Lehkonen showed grit, determination, speed, and most importantly an ability to score goals. Lehkonen's likelihood to improve with a more prominent role could see him approach the 25 goal, 25 assist mark should he remain trusted in that role for a full, healthy season.

This unit would also serve as the secondary, or primary if productive, power play unit and has potential to really punish teams for taking liberties on the Canadiens. They would be a far better deterrent than any enforcer the Canadiens have employed over the last decade.

So, while I'm technically labeling them as the second line, or Line 1B, there is definitely potential for them to be the best offensive unit the Canadiens can deploy. Or, the coaches can cobble together a completely different line but I don't see how it would make more sense than the line I've mentioned, offensively anyways.

As far as point potential goes over a healthy campaign, I'll speculate Drouin and Galchenyuk could hit 30 goals and 30+ assists, and Lehkonen could produce 22+ goals and 20+ assists.

Of course there the possibility that neither Galchenyuk or Drouin can play center and throw all of my projections out the window, but with the team constructed as it is today this should be the game plan.

I will finish off my Canadiens Line Projections set with the 3rd and 4th lines in my next article.
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