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Danault Criminally Underrated, Along With Trade That Made Him A Hab |
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The Emergence Of Phillip Danualt
While many are focused on the Montreal Canadiens quest to find a elite #1 Center, a quest that most hope is fulfilled with the acquisition of 22 year old Jonathan Drouin, not many have shown appreciation for the savvy acquisition of the Canadiens most reliable and versatile center in Phillip Danault.
Danualt was acquired on February 26, 2016, along with a 2018 2nd round pick, from Chicago for superstars Dale Weise and Tomas Fleischmann in a deal that in looks incredibly good in hindsight. Weise is now a member of the Philadelphia Flyers and has averaged 10:29 TOI in 14 games this year and has produced 2 G and 1A. Fleischmann hasn’t played in the NHL since his season concluded with the Blackhawks following the trade. Also of note is the Canadiens still own the Blackhawks 2nd rounder this year.
For all the grief Marc Bergevin has caught for missing the boat on both Markov and Radulov, people tend to forget an absolute fleecing like this trade was. Danault is player that gives his all every game, does whats asked at both ends of the ice, and the best part is he is getting better. The 24 year old is in his 3rd full NHL season after his first full year (split between MTL and CHI) saw him appear in 51 games and put up 4G and 6A for 10 points. His second full season, last year, saw him appear in 82 games and put up 13G and 27A for 40 points.
This season so far he was reunited with Pacioretty after Pac and Drouin couldn’t find chemistry very quickly and the Habs needed a line that worked. So, Julien went with what was familiar to both Pacioretty and Danault in an attempt to get the team going and it worked. So far Danault has 3G and 8A for 11 points in 18 games, and remember this team as a whole couldn’t score for about 6 games to start the season. That puts him on pace for 50 points, a possible 25% improvement year over year that could have been higher if not for the terrible start to the season.
Add to that some fancy stats for those that like to live and die by them and you see that Danault is a very effective hockey player for his age and deployment. Now, I’m not the type who lives and dies by Corsi or Fenwick. Hockey is far too dynamic and poorly officiated to be able to gather statistics that will give you definitive, black and white conclusions as to who’s good and who isn’t. Sometimes the stats marry up well to star players (Stamkos currently leads TBL with 54.1 CF%) and sometimes it doesn’t make much sense (B Davidson leads the Habs with 58.4 CF%). I think we can all admit there’s a bit of a possibility that this stat can be useful, but also misleading. That’s why people thought up Fenwick, PDO, etc. Everyone is trying to gain an edge by adding hard data to the eye test.
Quick info drop: Corsi For % is the amount of EVEN STRENGTH Shots + Blocks + Misses for (CF) and against (CA) added together and then represented in a percentage to show how much more often the player is on the ice attacking rather than defending.
Fenwick For % is the same as Corsi except it doesn’t count Blocks.
The theory is the more often you are attacking, the better player you are. Totally true in principal, doesn’t take into account game situation, coach deployment (sheltering, defensively responsible player who is also offensive deployed for a shut down shift), and opposition quality at time of shift.
Useful tools, but far from the rule to definitively say a player is elite or not.
I got away from the point I was going make there, so let me get back on track. Danault, a 3rd year NHL’er playing top 6 C for the Canadiens, has a 53.9 CF% and is ranked 11th in that regard on the Habs current roster (Drouin 9th at 54.5% with 56.3% of his shifts starting in the O Zone compared to Danault’s 46.3%). Pretty good for a guy some call a 3rd line C in the Habs forums. Danault’s Fenwick % is 55.6% and ranked 6th in that regard on the Canadiens, and for comparison Drouin is ranked 11th in FF% at 54.2.
If you considered just these stats alone, some could say that while Drouin is clearly the more creative and dynamic offensive player, the stats show that Danault is clearly better all around and more valuable. Let that sink in for a moment please before you start calling me crazy.
The last point I want to make in the case of “Danault Becoming a Top Center V. Montreal Fan/Media Madness” is about another very relevant fancy stat that gets dismissed a lot: PDO. Often referred to as “Luck”, PDO is actually another EVEN STRENGTH stat that adds together the teams Shooting Percentage and Save Percentage while said player is on the ice. PDO, on average, should be very close to 100, give or take 1 point. The rule of thumb is that the higher the PDO the more fortunate, or lucky, the player is, and the lower the PDO is the opposite.
Coming into this season, Danault has averaged around 99 which would be fairly standard and represent that the player has neither benefitted or been victimized by Shooting percentage and Save Percentage. This season Danault’s PDO sits at 94.6 and it isn’t due to his level of play, I think we all know the reason at this point. Goaltending. Danualt’s Even Strength, team shooting % with him on the ice is 7.1% (last year it was 7.5%), but the team EV SP% this year is 87.6% with him on the ice (last year it was 92.3%). Once the team gets its goaltending back on track, Danault will be able to not only increase his PDO stat, but likely increase his CF% and FF% due to factors that you can’t quantify like momentum and confidence. Confidence starts from the crease out and without feeling like any mistake will end up in your net, like it literally did for the Canadiens earlier this season. The grip on the stick loosens and the attack mentality starts to come back in, with a little encouragement/opportunity from the coaching staff of course.
The only thing holding Danault back from being a slightly lesser Patrice Bergeron is going to be his shooting percentage. Danault doesn’t shoot much (38 S this year, 2.1 avg Shots per Game) and his shooting percentage this year is 7.9 % (last year: 9.8% on 133 shots, 13 G). The positive spin to this scenario is that Danault has improved each season so far and if he can resist the urge to pass everything off, he could easily put up close to 70-80 more shots a season (200-220 shots a year) and if he can maintain that 9.8% shooting percentage he can score 20-23 goals a year.
His career trend is upward so there’s no reason to think this can’t happen, and that trend should improve his assist totals as well. This year so far he is on pace for 36 assists. If that is his ceiling and he can improve his shots on goal that would make Danault a defensively responsible, fast, 55+ point C with potential for more points. Easily a top 6 C on most teams, easily a #1 C on the Canadiens, possibly a better version of Plekanec in his prime.
Should Montreal be able to help cultivate the elite offensive talent that Drouin has into a reliable, defensive player like they have with Danault then Montreal clearly has their best top 2 C pair since Koivu was in his prime. Galchenyuk can stay on the wing and use his dynamic puck skill and shot more effectively. All of this can happen and we will still get to see NCAA break out star, and Canadiens 2017 1st Rd Pick, Ryan Poehling come into the roster in the next season or two. Dire straights? Not at all. Lacking in big name, point per game talent? Sure, I can buy that. Completely logical to say. But, should Drouin develop into a solid 2 way C that scores 65-70 points a season (very possible) and Danault keeps doing Danault things and improves to 55-60 points a season, then the only thing lacking at C right now is patience. The team has two young, high quality, French C’s (yes, that still seems to matter A LOT to some people) that keep getting better and are 22 and 24 years old.
To me, the problem for the team (aside from the cold stretch and injury to Price) is finding another puck moving LD man that can move up and down in the top 4 and play the PP.
*Crowd: “Ah Ha! That’s why Bergevin has to go! He let Markov walk!”*
Big deal. Markov was gassed out February each of the last few seasons and his biggest asset was his PP work. Yes, that is missed from the team. But it wasn’t worth tying up 5-6 million for 2 seasons knowing that this player will be done by the time you actually need him in the playoffs. Hard decision for sure, but one that was made and is being lived with. Having Markov would not have stopped that horrible 8 game start by the Habs, he wouldn’t have fixed Price’s goaltending woes or injury either. I would be willing to bet if Markov was on the team right now, and signed for one more at $5 million per, fans and media alike would be begging for him to be dealt so we could throw the bank at John Tavares this summer. You know I’m kind of right, maybe 100% right…. Hypothetically. If that can actually be counted as right. You know what? I’m just going to commit to it. Yes, I would be right in that opinion.
So, for all the people calling for Bergevin’s head remember, he has brought in Drouin to be #1 C and I think we all are happy to have him. He brought in Danault and a 2nd rounder for plugs from the management wise envy of the league Chicago Blackhawks. AAAAND he and Timmins had the stones and foresight to grab draft day slider C Ryan Poehling at 25th (slated to go around 12-16) who is currently over a point per game for the newly #1 ranked St. Cloud State Huskies (who have a great crest BTW). The Habs have consistently drafted D’s and G’s well and Bergevin has now traded for 2, young, very good top 6 C’s in Drouin and Danault, AND drafted a potential #1 C in Poehling.
Now get off of the bridge and relax. It will get better.
PACIORETTY MAKES MORE HABS HISTORY
Max Pacioretty's OT winner against the Sabres Saturday night was his 10th regular season OT winner in a Canadiens uniform and good for 1st place all time in the Canadiens record books for regular season OT goals! Congrats to Max on the incredible achievement and I hope for many more over the years! With a history as rich as the Canadiens its nice to see just how good some of the players we have are despite the lack of Cup wins. Awesome work from the Captain!
PRICE STILL WORKING ON RETURN FROM IR
Price continues to work on the ice with Goalie Coach S Waite. I have seen no new information as to when he will return but I will say that even if he returned tomorrow I would like to see Lindgren play until he lays an egg. When a guy comes in to replace arguably the best goaltender in the NHL and gives the team his all and puts up the numbers Lindgren has (.964 SP%, 1.24 GAA in 4 games) you give him the reigns.
That’s no slight to Price, I am a huge Price fan from spending big money on his collectibles and game used memorabilia. The team winning comes first and Lindgren deserves his starts. I fully believe Price would agree, but once he got back in the crease I also know Price won’t want to give it back.
COLLECT THE BEST! COLLECT UPPER DECK!
2017-18 UPPER DECK SERIES 1 IS OUT THERE IN THE WILD! CHECK IT OUT AT YOUR LOCAL HOBBY STORE! #COLLECTTHEBEST
Don't forget to check out Upper Deck products at your local hobby shops and online! Preorders for UD Series 2 are already happening so if you’re a big collector, or a new one, make sure you stop by your local shop and see if you can get yourself a box (or case).
The Young Guns rookie set are one of the most collected rookie sets all year and the Exclusives (#’d to 100) and High Gloss (#’ to 10) are always worth good money on the secondary market (depending on the rookie of course). You can find Auto’s, jersey, and patch cards in these boxes as well! Check it out!
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Montreal Canadiens Blogger • 
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