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Trade Deadline Day Musings |
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The Flyers will hold an 11 a.m. practice on Wednesday at the Skate Zone in Voorhees. It's human nature for players to have their minds elsewhere, wondering who will still be on the team in a few hours. Sometimes the nerves get channeled into a brisk, up-tempo practice but, more commonly, it's a nondescript session.
Last year, the Flyers stood pat on trade deadline day. This time around, it would not be surprising if Philadelphia trades at least one of its impending unrestricted free agent defensemen (Mark Streit or Michael Del Zotto) or goaltenders (Steve Mason or Michal Neuvirth).
Keep this is mind, however. With the Flyers winning last night and the Toronto Maple Leafs losing in regulation to the San Jose Sharks, Philadelphia is back within four points of the Leafs for the final wildcard spot in the Eastern Conference. If the Flyers beat the Florida Panthers (one of the teams they are chasing) on Thursday and the Leafs lose in Los Angeles, suddenly the wildcard spot becomes very much up for grabs again.
While Ron Hextall has not been inclined to go for short-term help via trade for his Flyers rosters since he's taken over as general manager, he is also way too competitive to unload players for the sake of unloading. While he does believe in stockpiling assets, the 2017 draft is a so-so one, and none of the guys the Flyers may deal are likely to fetch first-round picks. Additionally, the current Flyers farm system (including forwards, although that area is still a work in progress) is the deepest it has been in quite a few years. The Flyers already have a full array of picks in the 2017 draft. As such, even though the Flyers clearly aren't buyers this year, they don't feel a ton of urgency to sell for the sake of selling.
If other teams meet Hextall's trade demands on the impending UFAs, that is a different story. Otherwise, he'll hold tight and go for the playoffs. Contrary to what those who only see doom and gloom wherever they look, the current Flyers are neither a "terrible" team nor one in need of a ground-up rebuild. What they are is a team that's in the same boat as all but the NHL's smattering of elite teams. In a league where there's only shades of difference between many playoff teams and the ones that miss the postseason by less than 10 points (which is the difference of pulling out or losing five up-for-grabs game over an entire season), the Flyers are on the bubble.
Many have said "just toss out the 10-game winning streak" and that last year's big second half surge is also irrelevant. They're wrong. These things should very much be considered, just as the team's bad first half last season and the fact the team has only won nine games since Christmas this season need to be considered. Both of those elements -- the capability of getting red hot for an extended stretch and for losing night after night for an extended stretch -- are very much in character and part of the make up of this team.
Not every one of the Flyers' prospects will max out their potential. But I think folks could be surprised that, just as the current nucleus is moving past what should be its prime, what the emergence of some prospects into solid NHL players -- let's say, for argument's sake, some combination of Travis Sanheim, Oskar Lindblom, German Rubtsov and whomever the Flyers select in the first round this year plus the continued blossoming of Ivan Provorov and further development of Travis Konecny -- could do for the firepower, two-way play and depth of the team.
The sky isn't falling, whether the team makes the playoffs or not this year.
No matter what some generalist sports columnist may say, the Flyers turning themselves into a hockey equivalent of the Philadelphia 76ers (tank, draft early, fail to develop said draftees, pull the plug a year or two later for pennies on the dollar and rinse, wash, repeat) is not the right way to go. It has taken the Edmonton Oilers a decade just to be a playoff-caliber team again, despite perennial high-end lottery picks (and a slew of first overall selections), because it's all about long-term team building and not collecting this prospect and that prospect.
That does not mean there aren't areas of concern. The teams' five-on-five goal differential this season has been horrific, and the Flyers still live and die by their power play too often. The penalty kill has improved (Wayne Simmonds has been an important part of that). The goalie play, last night's shutout aside, has been an unpleasant surprise after being a key strength last year and is in flux in terms of planning being the current season.
It could be argued, though, that if Flyers had defensemen who were better able to move the puck up to the forwards and added a bonafide scoring forward (while everyone is hollering for a left winger an offensive upgrade at center within the top three lines may be more helpful in ordering the top nine), the team would score much more frequently at five-on-five.
Final thought: Considering how many players have produced below expectations overall up to this point, to be four points out of the playoffs right now with a chance to cut the gap to three or two points by Friday (with a little outside help and by taking care of their own business against the Panthers) is something that speaks to just how much parity there is around the league.
Once you move down past the teams that already are in the mid-80s plus in points, you find a glut of teams where there isn't much difference between being in the playoffs or a mid-level lottery team. That's been the Flyers' abode since 2013-14 and where they will probably be for a bit longer unless they get a bit lucky in the draft or an off-season trade that unexpectedly turns into a home run. Those magical in-season deals like the one that brought John LeClair and Eric Desjardins to the Flyers rarely happened even in the pre-cap era and are even harder to pull off nowadays.
The Flyers' bubble-team status is not the ideal place to be by any means. By the same token, it sure as hell beats a decade of annually missing the playoffs or being in the situation the Colorado Avalanche find themselves where they are looking up at the rest of the league. Even if they win the lottery this year, there's still a lot of building to do.
Philly is walking in the middle of the road, which can certainly be frustrating. But let's say they did trade off players such as Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek and/or Wayne Simmonds. Who replaces them, in an era where teams lock up all their best players by (over)paying on long-term deals before they ever hit unrestricted free agency? How does it benefit prospects to put burdens on them at the NHL level that they aren't ready to handle yet? What kind of mixed message does it send about focusing on a winning environment for the long term yet accepting a tanking strategy?
I think back to how bleak everything looked during the franchise-worst year of 2006-07. That was truly a dire situation. A year later, a remade team came within three wins of the Stanley Cup Finals. This time around, there's no quick fixes at hand. On the flip side, they aren't starting out from nearly as far behind the pack.
Patience is tough. Frustration is understandable. But the long-term plan should not have changed to panic mode based on two months of struggles any more than it should have shifted to stocking up on rentals based on 20 wins by Christmas buoyed by a 10-game winning streak.
That's how I see it, at least. If there's the right trade to be made, then by all means be bold. If you are paring down just to get anything for a UFA, I'd just as soon take my chances in pushing for the playoffs. I believe that is how Ron Hextall sees it, too, but I am not in his head.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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