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Musings: Projecting the Expansion Draft, Alumni Golf Attendees |
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PROJECTING THE EXPANSION DRAFT
When the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft rolls around on June 21, there is bound to be a lot of player and asset movement around the league -- not just involving the Vegas Golden Knights -- that could be more interesting than the actual selections the newest NHL team makes from each of the existing clubs' unprotected lists.
In terms of the draft per se, the Flyers are not in bad shape in terms of being forced to expose players they'd desperately want to keep if the protected list terms were a little more generous. That is because players such as Ivan Provorov and most the cadre of top prospects who have yet to crack the full-time NHL roster are exempt from this year's draft. Most likely, the Flyers will lose a forward from their unprotected list, because that is where the tougher decisions need to be made.
It seems almost certain that the Flyers will go the 7-3-1 route (seven protected forwards, three protected defensemen, one protected goalie). The 8-1 (eight skaters of any position plus one goalie) option might have been necessary if they had several more of their young defensemen beyond Shayne Gostisbehere to protect, but that isn't the case this time.
Under the terms of the expansion draft arrangement, Claude Giroux and Valtteri Filppula must be protected due to the no-movement clauses in their contracts. However, Flyers general manager Ron Hextall has said that he'd have protected both players, anyway. That's a no-brainer in Giroux's case and also very likely true for Filppula simply because Hextall already knew about the mandatory expansion draft protection factor before he acquired the player at the deadline.
While it would be tough to predict with 100 percent accuracy which players the Flyers will protect for the expansion draft and who will be exposed, keep in mind that the Flyers must also designate one forward, one defenseman and one goalie under contract for next season (or a restricted free agent who receives a qualifying offer to retain his rights) who meet the requisite experience and games played requirements. In some cases, that makes things more complicated. In the Flyers' case, there really aren't too many players whom they must expose who would be highly desirable to Vegas from a roster-building and salary cap standpoint (except possibly for the cap floor requirements that will force Vegas to take on some contracts that are cap albatrosses to the teams close to the cap ceiling).
Here is a sample of how the Flyers' protected list may look:
Protected forwards (6, one to go): Claude Giroux (required), Valtteri Filppula (required), Jakub Voracek, Wayne Simmonds, Sean Couturier, Brayden Schenn.
Protected defensemen (3): Shayne Gostisbehere, Radko Gudas, Andrew MacDonald.
Protected goalie (1): Michal Neuvirth.
Partial Draft Exempt List: Ivan Provorov, Travis Konecny, Travis Sanheim, Robert Hägg (first AHL season "slid"), Samuel Morin, Philippe Myers, German Rubtsov, Oskar Lindblom, Felix Sandström, Carter Hart, Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Radel Fazleev.
There is still one more draft-eligible forward to protect and a decision to make on defense between MacDonald or Brandon Manning as the player to meet the must-expose requirement for one eligible defenseman.
While many fans detest MacDonald for salary cap and/or analytics reasons, they are not the ones making the decision. Like it or not, MacDonald plays a bigger role on the defense than Manning does and, on a blueline that could have as many as two rookies next season plus a second-year NHLer (Provorov) and a third-year one (Gostisbehere), they will still want a minutes-eating vet on a team management believes is capable of returning to the playoffs at least as a wildcard. While the Flyers like Manning's work ethic and moxie, he'd be the more immediately replaceable of two of selected.
As for the open protected forward slot, the probable options boil down to the following: Michael Raffl, Nick Cousins, Scott Laughton, Jordan Weal (more on him in a moment), Matt Read, Dale Weise, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare or Taylor Leier.
Ahead of the Expansion Draft, the Golden Knights will be allowed a 48-hour window to sign other teams' unrestricted free agents. If they do so, however, they may not select another player from that team in the draft itself. The Flyers are trying to get impending unrestricted free agent Weal signed to a new contract. Doing so will probably require overpaying for the services of a 25-year-old player who, while he played very well for the team in his late season callup, also has just 37 NHL games and 12 points (eight goals, four assists) to date. That's not typically a seven-figure cap hit, multi-year deal type of player but this year's set of circumstances raise his market value well above what it would be if he were a restricted free agent.
Nevertheless, if the Flyers can proactively get Weal signed at a cost they can live with, they will probably do so and make him the final protected forward. If not, they'll leave him exposed, figuring Vegas may not take him, anyway, because he'll be available again as an unrestricted free agent come July 1 (albeit at a price possibly even further inflated by any team being eligible to sign the still-young forward).
If circumstances work out in such way that Weal is still unsigned, then the decision of whom to protect likely comes down to one of Raffl, alternate captain Bellemare or one of younger forwards Cousins, Leier or Laughton. I do not know how the Flyers themselves would lean in such a scenario. If it were my decision with that set of players, I'd protect Laughton despite him having been dispatched to the AHL's Lehigh Valley Phantoms most of the 2016-17 season after dressing in 71 games for the parent club the previous year.
With the numbers game being what it is, it seems unlikely that the Flyers will attempt to re-sign forward Roman Lyubimov, an impending unrestricted free agent. His most likely destination is CSKA Moscow in the KHL.
This group of five is also the most likely to see one selected by Vegas if left exposed. Despite the late-season of Weise on a line with Couturier and Schenn, he does not seem like a likely selection for the first-year expansion Golden Knights. A few years ago, Read would have been someone the Flyers protected but is not part of the long-term plan and is overpaid relative to the revised role he now plays on the team. However, his contract expires after next season, and his salary ($3.625 million) wouldn't be a big issue for one year in a cap floor scenario.
As for whom the Flyers will lose, I would say it will be among Raffl, Cousins, Laughton or Leier. Bellemare is much more widely respected within the inside of the hockey world than he is either among analytics devotees or those who go mainly by his point totals. However, unless Vegas wants him as a locker room/ intangibles type, I do not think the 32-year-old would be at risk of being selected if the Flyers exposed him. I would think the Knights would prefer to go a little younger, and target someone they'd keep around for several seasons.
Regardless of whether the Flyers protect Neuvirth or Anthony Stolarz, injury issues alone probably make both non-candidates for Expansion Draft selection except possibly as part of a trading scenario. There are healthier and more established goalies who will be available to the Knights both at the NHL level (Neuvirth consideration) and the waiting-in-the-wings depth spots (Stolarz consideration).
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FLYERS ALUMNI ANNOUNCE PRELIMINARY GOLF INVITATIONAL PARTICIPANT LIST
The annual Flyers Alumni Golf Invitational will take place on June 26, 2017 at DuPont Country Club in Wilmington. Yesterday, the Flyers Alumni Association released a preliminary list of confirmed participants. Other names with follow as additional invitees commit.
Alphabetically, here's the initial list of confirmed participants:
Frank Bathe
Brian Boucher
Danny Briere
Terry Carkner
Jeff Chychrun
Bill Clement
Steve Coates
Riley Cote
Doug Crossman
Todd Fedoruk
Ross Fitzpatrick
Larry Goodenough
Al Hill
Ed Hospodar
Paul Holmgren
Mark Howe
Kerry Huffman
Bob Kelly
Orest Kindrachuk
Mark LaForest
Mitch Lamoureux
Reggie Leach
Neil Little
Brad Marsh
Lou Nolan
Brian Propp
Don Saleski
Dave Schultz (attending, not golfing)
Al Secord
Chris Therien
Jim Watson
Joe Watson
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