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Musings: Defining a 'Deep' Draft

June 6, 2016, 9:02 AM ET [321 Comments]
Bill Meltzer
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Last year's NHL Draft crop has been hyped as potentially being one of the deeper ones in recent history. The consensus on this year's Draft is that that is an "average" one.

How does one define a "deep" draft or an "average" one? Is it one with the most future stars? Is it one that produces the highest percentage of players who go on to play at least one game in the NHL? One that has the highest average number of NHL games played per draftee?

By any measure, nothing is likely to match the legendary 1979 NHL Draft. That year was the first draft opened to 19-year-old players (the age was lowered to 18 the next year) and also the first after the merger of the National Hockey League with the World Hockey Association.

The '79 draft saw 103 of its 126 selected players (a whopping 81.7 percent) play at least one game in the NHL, with an average of 479 games. Want star power? The pool of picks included the likes of Ray Bourque, Mike Gartner, Mark Messier (third round), Brian Propp, Michel Goulet, Neal Broten, Glenn Anderson, Guy Carbonneau, Pelle Lindbergh, Thomas Steen, Dale Hunter, and Anton Stastny. The pool was so deep that the likes of Tim Kerr and Dino Ciccarelli went unselected in the Draft and ending up signing their first NHL contracts as rookie free agents.

Typically, the 1990, 1991 and especially 2003 Drafts are considered the deepest ones in the last quarter century. If one looks at the 20 NHL Drafts from 1990 to 2009, this is how they break down in terms of depth, average numbers of NHL games played and cross-sections of notable (not necessarily star) players from each Draft year.

Note that it is NOT always the percentage of players who made it to the NHL or the longevity of NHL careers that brings about the perception of depth or shallowness. Star power often has as much, if not more to do with it. It should also be noted that the years in the 1990s to early 2000s when there were a lot more total rounds picks can also affect the breakdowns.

1990: 98 of 252 picks played in the NHL (39.2%), 435 average NHL games.

Future stars included Jaromir Jagr, Owen Nolan (1st overall pick), Petr Nedved, Keith Primeau, Derian Hatcher, Keith Tkachuk, Martin Brodeur, Doug Weight, Sergei Zubov (fifth round). Other standouts included Bryan Smolinski, Geoff Sanderson, Craig Conroy, Alexei Zhamnov (fourth round), Mikael Renberg, Slava Kozlov, Robert Lang and Chris Therien.

1991: 113 of 264 picks played in the NHL (42.8%), 372 average games.

Future stars included Eric Lindros (first overall pick), Scott Niedermayer, Peter Forsberg, Markus Näslund, Alexei Kovalev and Zigmund Palffy. Other standouts included Brian Rolston, Ray Whitney, Sandis Ozolinsh, Michael Nylander, Chris Osgood, Glen Murray, Josef Stumpel, Yanic Perreault, Mike Knuble, Alexei Zhitnik and Sean O'Donnell (sixth round, 1,224 NHL games).

1992: 125 of 264 picks played in the NHL (47.3%), 304 average NHL games.

Future stars included Roman Hamrlik (first overall pick), Alexei Yashin, Sergei Gonchar, Mike Peca (second round) and Jere Lehtinen (fourth round). Other standouts included Kirk Maltby (third round), Craig Rivet (third round), Matthew Barnaby (fourth round), Adrian Aucoin (fifth round), Marcus Ragnarsson (fifth round), Ian Laperriere (seventh round), Stephane Yelle (eighth round), Nikolai Khabibulin (ninth round), Anson Carter (10th round) and Dan McGillis (10th round).

1993: 131 of 286 picks played in the NHL (45.8%), 359 average NHL games.

Future stars included Chris Pronger (2nd overall), Paul Kariya, Saku Koivu, Jason Arnott, Todd Bertuzzi, Pavol Demitra (ninth round) and Kimmo Timonen (10th round). Other standouts included Alexandre Daigle (first overall pick), Chris Gratton, Rob Niedermayer, Jocelyn Thibault, Kenny Jönsson, Adam Deadmarsh, Miroslav Satan (5th round), Brendan Witt, Jason Allison, Bryan McCabe, Niklas Sundström, Jamie Langenbrunner, Janne Niinimaa, Vaclav Prospal, Michal Grosek, Darcy Tucker, Todd Marchant, Andrew Brunette, Mike Grier and Hal Gill.

1994: 115 of 286 picks played in the NHL (40.2 percent), 384 average NHL games.

Future stars included Patrik Elias (second round), Daniel Alfredsson (sixth round), Ed Jovanovski (first overall pick), Ryan Smyth, Mattias Öhlund, Milan Hejduk (fourth round) and Evgeny Nabokov (ninth round). Other standouts included Radek Bonk, Oleg Tverdovsky, Fredrik Modin (third round), Jeff O'Neill, Sheldon Souray (third round), Chris Drury (third round), Tomas Holmström (10th round), Bryce Salvador, Rhett Warrener, Brad Lukowich, Bates Battalgia, Alexander Selivanov (sixth round) and Kim Johnsson (286th and final pick of the draft).

1995: 112 of 234 picks played in the NHL (47.9 percent), 299 average NHL games.

Future stars included Jarome Iginla, Shane Doan, Bryan Berard (first overall pick), Wade Redden, Marc Savard (fourth round) and Miikka Kiprusoff (fifth round). Other standouts included Daymond Langkow, Michal Handzus (fourth round), Sami Kapanen (fourth round), Petr Sykora, Radek Dvorak, Stephane Robidas (seventh round), Jay McKee, J-S Giguere, Martin Biron, Brian Boucher, P-J Axelsson (seventh round), Jochen Hecht, Brent Sopel (sixth round), Jan Hrdina (fifth round), Filip Kuba (eighth round), Georges Laraque (second round) and Danny Markov (ninth round).

1996: 99 of 241 picks played in the NHL (41.1 percent), 326 average NHL games.

Future stars included Daniel Briere, Zdeno Chara (third round), Chris Phillips (first overall pick), Derek Morris and Matt Cullen (second round). Other notables included J.P. Dumont, Derek Morris, Dainius Zubrus, Ruslan Salei, Marco Sturm, Cory Sarich, Jan Bulis, Colin White, Tom Poti (third round), Mark Parrish (third round), Toni Lydman, Sami Salo (ninth round, 239th overall), Eric Belanger, Michal Rozsival, Andreas Dackell (sixth round), Robert Esche (sixth round), Arron Asham and Craig Adams (ninth round, 223rd overall).

1997: 101 of 246 picks played in the NHL (41.1 percent), 298 average games.

Future stars included Joe Thornton (first overall), Roberto Luongo (fourth overall), Patrick Marleau (second overall) and Marian Hossa. Other standouts included Olli Jokinen (third overall), Sergei Samsonov, Daniel Cleary, Eric Brewer, Brenden Morrow, Brian Campbell (sixth round), Matt Cooke (sixth round), Scott Hannan, Maxim Afinogenov, Ladislav Nagy (seventh round), Kristian Huselius, Henrik Tallinder, Joe Corvo, Jason Chimera, Andrew Ference (eighth round), Kyle Calder, Shawn Thornton (seventh round), Todd Fedoruk (seventh round) and Brett McLean (ninth round, 242nd overall).

1998: 132 of 258 picks played in the NHL (51.2 percent), 306 average games.

Future stars included Vincent Lecavalier (first overall), Pavel Datsyuk (sixth round), Alex Tanguay, Simon Gagne, Scott Gomez and Brad Richards (third round). Other standouts and notables included David Legwand (second overall), Brad Stuart (third overall), Robyn Regehr, Mike Fisher (second round), Mike Ribeiro (second round), Manny Malhotra, Brian Gionta (third round), Mark Bell, Michael Rupp, Nikolai Antropov, Erik Cole (third round), Jonathan Cheechoo, Francois Beauchemin (third round), Shawn Horcoff (fourth round), Jaroslav Spacek (fifth round), Rob Scuderi (fifth round), Mikael Samuelsson (fifth round), Chris Neil (sixth round), Andrei Markov (sixth round), Alex Kotalik (sixth round), Michael Ryder (eighth round), Antero Niittymäki (sixth round) and Karlis Skrastins (ninth round, 230th overall).

1999: 112 of 272 picks played in the NHL (41.2 percent), 234 average games.

Future stars included Daniel Sedin (second overall), Henrik Sedin (third overall) and Henrik Zetterberg (seventh round). Others included Tim Connolly, Taylor Pyatt, Barret Jackman, Nick Boynton, Martin Havlat, Martin Erat (seventh round), Niclas Havelid (third round), Douglas Murray (eighth round), Frantisek Kaberle (third round), Niklas Hagman (third round), Jordan Leopold (second round), Mike Commodore (second round), Adam Hall (second round), Patrik Stefan (first overall pick) and Pavel Brendl (fourth overall pick).

2000: 118 of 293 picks played in the NHL (40.3 percent), 256 average games.

Future stars included Henrik Lundqvist (seventh round), Dany Heatley (second overall) Marian Gaborik (third overall), Scott Hartnell (sixth overall) and Niklas Kronwall. Others included Rick DiPietro (first overall), Justin Williams, Raffi Torres (fifth overall), Rostislav Klesla (fourth overall), Ron Hainsey, Lubomir Visnovsky (fourth round), Alexander Frolov, Anton Volchenkov, Brad Boyes, Steve Ott, Antoine Vermette (second round), Paul Martin (second round), Nick Schultz (second round), Tomas Kopecky (second round), Jarret Stoll (second round), Roman Cechmanek (sixth round, age 29), Mike Rupp (third round), Dominic Moore (third round), Niclas Wallin (fourth round), Travis Moen (fifth round) and John-Michael Liles (fifth round).

2001: 126 of 289 picks played in the NHL (43.6 percent), 279 average games.

Future stars included Ilya Kovalchuk (first overall), Jason Spezza (second overall), Tomas Plekanec (third round) and Patrick Sharp (third round, age 20). Others included Stephen Weiss (fourth overall), Mikko Koivu (sixth overall), Dan Hamhuis, Mike Cammalleri (second round), R.J. Umberger, Carlo Colaiacovo, Marcel Goc, Tim Gleason, Colby Armstrong, David Steckel, Derek Roy (second round), Kevin Bieksa (fifth round), Dennis Seidenberg (sixth round), Marek Zidlicky (sixth round), Johnny Oduya (seventh round), Fedor Tyutin (second round), Tim Jackman (second round), Jay McClement (second round), Craig Anderson (third round), Stephane Veilleux (third round), Jordin Tootoo (fourth round), Kyle Wellwood (fifth round), Cody McCormick (fifth round), Ryane Clowe (sixth round), Andrew Alberts (sixth round) and Brooks Laich (sixth round).

2002: 104 of 291 picks played in the NHL (35.7%), 283 average games.

Future stars included Rick Nash (first overall), Duncan Keith (second round), Jay Bouwmeester (third overall) and Alexander Semin (13th overall). Other notables included Kari Lehtonen (second overall), Joni Pitkänen (fourth overall), Scottie Upshall (sixth overall), Joffrey Lupul (seventh overall), Ryan Whitney (fifth overall), Alexander Steen, Keith Ballard, Trevor Daley (second round), Matt Greene (second round), Jiri Hudler (second round), Matt Stajan (second round), Valtteri Filppula (third round), James Wisniewski (fifth round), Tomas Fleischmann (second round), Frans Nielsen (third round), Tom Gilbert (fourth round), Paul Ranger (sixth round), Ian White (sixth round), Max Talbot (eighth round), Dennis Wideman (eighth round), Petr Prucha (eighth round), Adam Burish (ninth round) and Jonathan Ericsson (291st and final selection).

2003: 130 of 298 picks played in the NHL (44.5%), 292 average games.

Future stars included Eric Staal (second overall), Shea Weber (second round), Marc-Andre Fleury (first overall), Dion Phaneuf, Thomas Vanek, Ryan Suter, Jeff Carter, Mike Richards, Ryan Kesler, Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, Patrice Bergeron (second round), David Backes (second round), Joe Pavelski (seventh round), Dustin Byfuglien (eighth round). Others include Nathan Horton (third overall), Nikolay Zherdev (fourth overall), Milan Michalek (sixth overall), Braydon Coburn (eighth overall), Dustin Brown (13th overall), Brent Seabrooke (14th overall), Brent Burns, Loui Eriksson (second round), Matt Carle (second round), Max Lapierre (second round), Clarke MacArthur (third round), Jan Hejda (fourth round), Lee Stempniak (fifth round), Brad Richardson (fifth round), Dan Carcillo (third round), Mark Methot (sixth round), Drew Miller (sixth round), Kyle Brodziak (seventh round), Matt Moulson (ninth round), Tanner Glass, ninth round) and Lasse Kukkonen (fifth round, age 21).

2004: 127 of 291 picks played in the NHL (43.6%), 223 average games.

Future stars included: Alexander Ovechkin (first overall), Evgeni Malkin (second overall), Mike Green, Pekka Rinne (eighth round) and David Krejci (second round). Others included Andrew Ladd, Blake Wheeler, Drew Stafford, Alexander Radulov, Travis Zajac, Ryan Callahan (fourth round), Andrej Meszaros, Mark Streit (ninth round), Dave Bolland (second round), Bryan Bickell (second round), Blake Comeau (second round), Alexander Edler (third round), Johan Franzén (third round), Carl Söderberg (second round), David Booth (second round), Brandon Dubinsky (second round), Alex Goligoski (second round), Nicklas Grossmann (second round), Daniel Winnik (ninth round), Jannik Hansen (ninth round, 287th overall), Brandon Prust (third round), Clayton Stoner (third round), Alexei Emelin (third round), Peter Regin (third round), Tyler Kennedy (fourth round), Roman Polak (sixth round), Mike Santorelli (sixth round), Troy Brouwer (seventh round), and Chris Campoli (sevebth round).

2005: 111 of 230 picks played in the NHL (48.3%), 206 average games.

Future stars included Sidney Crosby (first overall), Carey Price (fifth overall), Anze Kopitar (11th overall), Bobby Ryan (second overall), Tuukka Rask (21st overall), James Neal (second round), Kris Letang (third round), Jonathan Quick (third round) and Keith Yandle (fourth round). Others included Paul Stastny (second overall), Jack Johnson (third overall), Benoit Pouliot (fourth overall), Devin Setoguchi (eighth overall), Martin Hanzal, Jakub Kindl, Andrew Cogliano, T.J. Oshie, Matt Niskanen, Steve Downie, Marc-Edouard Vlasic (second round), Justin Abdelkader (second round), Mason Raymond (second round), Adam McQuaid (second round), Anton Strålman (seventh round, 216th overall), Patric Hörnqvist (230th and final pick), Kris Russell (third round), Cody Franson (third round), Jared Boll (fourth round), Vladimir Sobotka (fourth round), Niklas Hjalmarsson (fourth round), Darren Helm (fifth round), Nathan Gerbe (fifth round), Mark Fayne (fifth round), Matt D'Agostini (sixth round) and Sergei Kostitsyn (seventh round).

2006: 86 of 213 picks played in the NHL (41.8%), 207 average games.

Future stars included Jonathan Toews (third overall), Nicklas Bäckström (fourth overall), Claude Giroux (22nd overall), Phil Kessel (fifth overall), Kyle Okposo (seventh overall) and Semyon Varlamov (23rd overall). Others included Erik Johnson (first overall), Jordan Staal (second overall), Derick Brassard (sixth overall), Michal Frolik (10th overall), Bryan Little (12th overall), Chris Stewart (18th overall), Patrik Berglund (25th overall), Nick Foligno (28th overall), Nikolay Kulemin (second round), Milan Lucic (second round), Artem Anisimov (second round), Mike Weber (second round), Steve Mason (third round), Brad Marchand (third round), Cal Clutterbuck (third round), Andrew MacDonald (sixth round), Viktor Stålberg (sixth round), Mathieu Perreault (sixth round), Derek Dorsett (sixth round), Eric Condra (seventh round, 211th overall).


2007: 93 of 211 picks played in the NHL (44.1%), 166 average games.

Future stars included Patrick Kane (first overall), Jakub Voracek (seventh overall), Logan Couture (ninth overall), Ryan McDonagh (12th overall), Kevin Shattenkirk (14th overall), Max Pacioretty (22nd overall), Jamie Benn (fifth round) and P.K. Subban (second round). Others included James van Riemsdyk (second overall), Kyle Turris (third overall), Karl Alzner (fifth overall), Sam Gagner (sixth overall), Lars Eller (13th overall), David Perron (26th overall), T.J. Galiardi (second round), Wayne Simmonds (second round, age 19), Yannick Weber (third round), Alex Killorn (third round), Corey Tropp (third round), Alec Martinez (fourth round), Dwight King (fourth round), Matt Halischuk (fourth round), Jake Muzzin (fifth round), Patrick Maroon (sixth round), Carl Hagelin (sixth round), Nick Bonino (sixth round), Paul Byron (sixth round), Carl Gunarsson (seventh round), Justin Braun (seventh round, 201st overall).

2008: 105 of 211 picks played in the NHL (49.8%), 148 average games.

Future stars included Steven Stamkos (first overall), Drew Doughty (second overall), Erik Karlsson (15th overall), Alex Pietrangelo (fourth overall) and Roman Josi (second round). Others included Zach Bogosian (third overall), Luke Schenn (fourth overall), Tyler Myers (12th overall), Luca Sbisa (19th overall), Michael Del Zotto (20th overall), Jordan Eberle (22nd overall), Tyler Ennis (26th overall), John Carlson (27th overall), Braden Holtby (fourth round), Slava Voynov (second round), Justin Schultz (second round), Derek Stepan (second round), Travis Hamonic (second round), Marco Scandella (second round), Jori Lehterä (third round), Michael Stone (third round), Lance Bouma (third round), Zack Smith (third round), Adam Henrique (third round), Brandon McMillan (third round), Dale Weise (fourth round), T.J. Brodie (fourth round), Gustav Nyquist (fourth round), Andrei Loktionov (fifth round), Matt Calvert (fifth round), Matt Martin (fifth round), Jared Spurgeon (sixth round), Cam Atkinson (sixth round) and Jason Demers (seventh round, 186th overall).

2009: 105 of 211 picks played in the NHL (49.8%), 121 average games.

Future stars included John Tavares (first overall), Victor Hedman (second overall), Matt Duchene (third overall) and Oliver Ekman-Larsson (sixth overall). Other notables included Evander Kane (fourth overall), Brayden Schenn (fifth overall), Nazem Kadri (seventh overall), Dmitri Kulikov (14th overall), Nick Leddy (16th overall), Chris Kreider (19th overall), Marcus Johansson (24th overall), Kyle Clifford (second round), Ryan O'Reilly (second round), Reilly Smith (third round), Alex Chiasson (second round), Cody Eakin (third round), Jakob Silfverberg (second round), Anton Lander (second round), Magnus Pääjärvi (10th overall), Robin Lehner (second round), Richard Panik (second round), Tomas Tatar (second round), Brandon Pirri (second round), Casey Cizikas (fourth round), Craig Smith (fourth round), Marcus Foligno (fourth round), Sami Vatanen (fourth round), Mike Hoffman (fifth round), Gabriel Bourque (fifth round), Marcus Kruger (fifth round), Anders Lee (sixth round), Eric Haula (seventh round) and Jordan Nolan (seventh round, 186th overall).

I did not include the 2010 to 2015 drafts in this exercise, because the statistical breakdowns become increasingly volatile the more recently one looks. The numbers and percentages of players who reach the NHL will change significantly in upcoming years as will the average number of NHL games played per pick who reaches the top level.
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