FLYERS SIGN FOLIN
The Flyers have signed unrestricted free agent defenseman Christian Folin to a one-year contract, the team announced on Thursday. The righthanded-shooting 27-year-old will round out the top seven of the Flyers' defense corps.
Back in 2014, the Flyers were reportedly finalists for Folin's services when the Swede left UMass-Lowell after two seasons to turn pro as undrafted free agent. Folin opted instead to sign with the Minnesota Wild.
Folin (6-foot-3, 205 pounds) possesses good size and a meat-and-potatoes style of play at the NHL level but makes a decent first pass and has NHL-caliber mobility and is fairly reliable without the puck on his stick. He can play 15 or 16 minutes in a third pairing role or slot in as needed as a seventh defenseman. Folin spent last season with the LA Kings, dressing in 65 games. Before joining LA, Folin played in a total of 118 games for the Wild, posting four goals and 19 assists for 23 points and a plus-15 rating.
Prior to coming to North America in 2010 to play USHL and then NCAA hockey, Folin came up through the HC Frölunda Indians Göteborg program program in his home country. At UMass-Lowell, he was a key contributor on the blueline as the team won the Hockey East championship.
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SILLY SEASON: TRADING FOR KARLSSON
I have no idea where superstar Ottawa Senators defenseman Erik Karlsson will ultimately be traded. Rumor has it that the Tampa Bay Lightning and Dallas Stars are the frontrunners thus far, but who knows? I also don't know what internal discussions the Flyers have had on the matter. It does stand to reason that general manager Ron Hextall would put in due diligence to see if it is feasible to acquire Karlsson.
From what I do know, however, I don't think Hextall is going to deviate too much from the plan he put in place in 2014. There will likely be a bidding war for the 28-year-old defenseman, and Hextall's belief in not trading young NHL players, high-end picks and prospects, especially multiple such pieces, in deals for players in their late 20s and beyond is pretty deeply held. He talks about it frequently.
But let's enjoy the height of Silly Season here during the sweltering days of early July. Let's play both Ron Hextall and Senators GM Pierre Dorion in a scenario where the Flyers try to negotiate a trade.
If I were Hextall, question number one would be whether Karlsson would be willing to commit to a long-term extension in Philadelphia. Let's assume the answer is yes, because otherwise that's immediately the end of the discussion (much as there was no need to chase after John Tavares as an unrestricted free agent when it was made clear that Philly wasn't on his list of desired destinations).
Question number two is about Karlsson's medicals and his emotional state. Physically, he's been through two major injuries in his career -- a 70 percent Achilles tendon tear in 2013 and major ankle surgery (half of his left ankle bone was removed) last summer. By his own admission, he has lost some of his once-phenomenal skating ability. His brain still computes the game at an elite level, and the hands are as good as ever but we may never again see the mid-70s to 80-plus points version of Karlsson from his two Norris Trophy seasons.
Between the ankle injury recovery, emotional anguish over the stillborn birth of a son, the much-publicized harassment case involving the girlfriend of ex-teammate Mike Hoffman allegedly cyber-assaulting Karlsson's wife, the turmoil within the Senators organization and the team's on-ice struggles, Karlsson could scarcely have played last season under more trying conditions. No doubt it affected his play (he dropped from 17 goals in 2016-17 to 9 this past season and from 71 to 62 points). With a fresh start on a new team, there figures to be at least some degree of a rebound. But, if I were Hextall, I'd want to know very candidly from Karlsson himself how mentally ready he is to come to Philadelphia and try to help lead the team onward and upward from a 98-point season with a first-round exit.
Let's assume that all of this checks out. The next question is what the Senators want in return, and whether taking Bobby Ryan's contract ($7.25 million cap hit with four more seasons to run) must be part of the deal. As much as it would be nice to bring the affable Ryan -- who, of course, has personal ties with people in Flyers management -- back to his home area, taking on that salary on a 31-year-old winger after seasons of 13-goal, 25-point, 20-games-missed and 11-goal, 33-point, 20-games-missed in back-to-back seasons would be close to a deal breaker for me unless there is significant cap relief involved the other way even if not in term.
While I suspect the Senators will pretty much insist Ryan be included and the negotiable part will be some cap relief going the other way, I'm going to pretend here that Dorion says that Ryan need not be included so as to bring back the best possible offer he can get for Karlsson.
OK, now we get to THE biggest question of all: What do the Senators want from the Flyers for Karlsson?
If I am Dorion, I swing for the fences. I tell the Flyers the ask is Shayne Gostisbehere, Travis Konecny, and the Flyers' 2019 first-round pick.
I'd say, "We want Gostisbehere, not Travis Sanheim, because we need an established NHL point-producing defenseman coming back rather than someone whom we'd hope but are not positive can translate junior and AHL success to the NHL more consistently than he did as a rookie. We want Konecny, not just because he played most of his junior hockey here in Ottawa, but also because we'd need a young NHL forward who has already shown he can score 20-plus goals in the league. The first round pick is in line with other offers we're getting."
If I were Hextall, I'd say, "No way am I doing that. Konecny is not available. Here's my offer: Gostisbehere straight up for Karlsson. Ghost outpointed Karlsson last year. He is three years younger than Karlsson, which means he's just entering his prime at age 25. Last but certainly not least, he is signed for five more years at $4.5 million. For us to sign Karlsson to an extension beyond next season, it's going to take an eight-year deal at $11 million per season just as Drew Doughty got. Is Karlsson better than Ghost? Yeah. Is he $6.5 million of lost cap space better? No, not when that would be enough space for us to extend Ivan Provorov and then a beyond that. Also, you're not going to get offered any one player from any team who is going to replace more of Karlsson's points than Ghost."
If I were Dorion, I would then try to see how much north of Gostisbehere the Flyers would be willing to go, since Philly would still be getting the best player in the deal. Continued insistance on Konency also being part of the deal would be a deal-breaker, nor would Hextall likely go for the inclusion of Morgan Frost or Joel Farabee. I'd then ask for Oskar Lindblom instead but also keep pressing the demand for the first-round pick.
If I were Hextall, I'd stand firm on Gostisbehere and offer either a choice of a lesser youngish NHL roster forward such as Jordan Weal (Dorion doesn't sound very enthused on the other end of the line) or prospect Nicolas Aube-Kubel. No first-rounder will be offered, and we're not going to have other team's offers played off ours to increase what we'll offer. Take it or leave it, and, if you want, then we can discuss a non first-round component for 2020.
At that point, if I'm Dorion, I thank the Flyers for their offer and say no. I might not get back one single NHL roster player, especially a defenseman, that will put up the offense that Gostisbehere does but I can get a variety of quality components -- picks and higher-end prospects whom other GMs in win-now mode would be willing to offer.
So even in this assumption-laden and Flyers-centric Silly Season scenario, my Philly-Sens trade negotiation does not end in Erik Karlsson becoming a Flyer. The Sens trade him elsewhere.
Then again, for all I know, perhaps when I fly up to Philly next week, I'll find myself covering a press conference to introduce new Flyers defenseman Erik Karlsson and formally reintroduce James van Riemsdyk. To paraphrase Mike Keenan: "Always expect the unexpected. And belated happy Independence Day."
In all seriousness, though, I don't think the Flyers will be on the short-list of likely destinations for Karlsson. I also don't think that Ron Hextall is hellbent on making a big trade that he believes will restore the Flyers instantly to Cup contender status along with the return of JVR. He is very deliberate and has a strong belief that the course he set out is the right one.
Some Flyers fans, quite vocally, are frustrated by that approach. Hextall, however, is not going to deviate from it. He'd argue that the pieces are starting to come together and the next phase is to oversee young players starting to take on bigger NHL roles (with yet more good prospects in the system) as the core of 2010s rosters enters the late stages of their prime years and eventually shifts down to reduced roles.
Would Hextall trade for a star in his prime at a cost agreeable to him? No doubt he would. Any GM would. Would he approach in gunslinger or casino gambler high roller fashion, all fired up to make a blockbuster trade for a superstar to boost fan enthusiasm, getting into a bidding war that involves allowing another team to name its price and then meeting it? Quite unlikely, especially when he knows the team isn't just one superstar addition away from winning the Cup. In fact, the team could actually go backwards a couple years down the line if he tears up too much of the youth he's meticulously been working to put in place.
That final part of the considerations is something I am sure of. Apart from Hextall's constant public pronouncements to that effect, I have strong enough contacts within the Flyers organization to say that the same hockey ops principles also get drummed home internally. Hextall keeps many things close to the vest and there's a very small circle that's privy what he actually thinks, but he is transparent about his overriding goals and long-term plan. He is adamant that a roster upgrade must be done with the long-haul in mind as well as the next season or two (unless it's an age-for-age deal of vets, ala Mark Streit for Valtteri Filppula). If not, he won't make the move.
Like it or hate it, but that's the reality of how Ron Hextall operates. Everything is done in almost painfully meticulous fashion and everything is done with long-term contender status as the goal.
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Quick Hits: July 5, 2018
1) This past season, Hextall really did NOT want to have to trade an asset for Petr Mrazek but felt he owed it to the players to get a vet goalie for the stretch drive after both Brian Elliott and Michal Neuvirth went down. There really was no other choice, and the conditional asset compensation scale was livable in this case with a playoff spot at stake.
The fact that Mrazek barely met the 5-win requirement along with a Flyers playoff berth -- he won six -- to bump up the conditional pick to Detroit and was so inconsistent in his play that more trust was placed in still-less-than-fully-healthy versions of Elliott and Neuvirth for the playoffs was the next-to-worst-case scenario for the Flyers from that trade. The worst scenario would have a fourth-round pick owed to Detroit. That would have meant the Flyers failed to qualify for the playoffs and/or that Mrazek failed to win at least five games.
If Mrazek had created even a semblance of trust in his reliability, he probably would have remained the Flyers 1A option going into the playoffs. Elliott was still in pretty rough shape health-wise despite his couple of starts at the end of the regular season. Neuvirth was eventually a bit better off, but still well below 100 percent.
The fact that a healthy Mrazek was considered an inferior option to two rusty, less-than-healthy alternatives (albeit players, especially Elliott, who had played vital roles in getting the Flyers to the stretch drive in playoff position) spoke more about the lack of faith in Mrazek than loyalty to Elliott. When Elliott struggled in the series, the Flyers turned to Neuvirth the rest of the way.
Goaltending alone was not what cost the Flyers the Pittsburgh series, but it sure didn't help things along the way. In every game of the series -- even in the two Flyers' wins -- there was at least one outright soft goal allowed. Add in some awful decision-making by Flyers skaters with and without the puck. Against a team that earns plenty of goals on merit or by making the most of a fortuitous bounce by being in the right spots on the ice, it was a fatal combination.
2) Having followed Mrazek's carer in Detroit beyond his strong rookie year and then witnessing every game of his Flyers stint firsthand, I am not really sure why the Carolina Hurricanes opted to sign him on the first day of unrestricted free agency rather than being patient with their options. The price for Mrazek was modest by UFA standards (one year, $1.5 million) but the prospects for success aren't great.
The Canes have a good roster -- especially on the blueline -- except for in goal. New head coach Rod Brind'Amour is going to have his work cut out for him with the wildly streaky Mrazek and Scott Darling (who had an awful season last year) as his goalie tandem. While Cam Ward's long stint in Carolina had passed -- and probably should have ended a couple years earlier -- the Canes arguably downgraded and at best made a lateral move in an area that was not a strength last season. Better goaltending may have been enough to get the Canes into the playoffs.
3) Team Canada has announced its August development camp roster for World Junior Championship hopefuls. Generally speaking, if a player is not invited to the August camp, he's got little shot at a WJC spot (as was the case last year for Flyers first round pick Morgan Frost, despite his breakout OHL season that was clearly taking flight as Hockey Canada announced its December camp roster and final roster). This year, Frost is part of the August camp and the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds' center should be a shoo-in for a WJC spot as long as he stays healthy coming off an OHL MVP runner-up campaign.
Fellow Flyers 2016 draftee, Guelph Storm left winger Isaac Ratcliffe, also received a camp invite from Hockey Canada. He's got more an uphill battle to earn a WJC roster spot than Frost likely faces. Even so, if Ratcliffe has a good camp and then a strong first half in which he continues to build on his 41-goal season from last year, he'll have a strengthened chance to win a spot come December.
Among Flyers' American prospects, Joel Farabee, Jay O'Brien and Noah Cates (who flew under the radar last season but had an excellent season in the USHL after a tough first couple months) are all part of the USA Hockey camp in August. Farabee has the strongest chance of the three to win a roster spot, with the less-tested O'Brien in the middle and Cates as a dark horse. Two years ago, Tanner Laczynski came in as a longshot invitee to camp and then proceeded to beat out more prominent names for a roster spot by committing himself to a bottom-six role that was different than his upper-lineup scoring role at Ohio State. Cates would likely have to do something similar and make himself too valuable to cut.
The Flyers also have three hopefuls for Team Sweden's WJC roster in their August camp: both forward Olle Lycksell and defenseman Adam Ginning have strong chances at winning roster spots. Although Ginning is only 18, the Swedish Ice Hockey Federation, SIF, has regularly chosen Ginning for national teams at every category up the ladder. Goalie Samuel Ersson is also in camp but may be a year away from seriously competing for a spot.
Team Russia's squad will start to come together later. If Flyers goalie prospect Kirill Ustimenko is selected to represent the Russians in the CHL Canada vs. Russia series, it will be a strong indication that he'll also be part of Russia's WJC squad. I would think he would be, anyway, coming off a very strong season in Russia's junior (MHL) circuit.
Last season, Belarus was relegated from the top level of the WJC to the Div. 1 level. That was unfortunate for Flyers right wing prospect Maksim Sushko, who by far was Belarus' best player (and also it's most heavily used in terms of ice time) and held his own even against strong opposition at last year's WJC in Buffalo. This year, the Owen Sound Attack task in his final year of U20 eligibility would be to try to help the Belarusian national team get back to the top level again.
4) Last call for those who missed it: James van Riemsdyk joined Chris Therien and me as our special guest on this week's edition of the "Real Deal Hockey with Bundy and Bill" podcast on the Flyers Alumni's Talkshoe channel. Download the program
here.
5) On the Flyers official website yesterday, we have an article entitled "American Made" about American Flyers of present, past and future. Much of the focus is on the crop of five Americans selected by Philly in the 2018 Draft. A typo in my draft of the article (calling Jay O'Brien "O'Neill" as in now-former Phantoms defenseman Will) will be fixed.
6) Over on the Flyers Alumni site, in the Community section of the site, there are articles on the story of how former longtime international pro cyclist Floyd Landis, a Lancaster County native, came to join Brad Marsh's Ides of Marsh team for the 2018 Toyota Flyers Charity Classic (July 15) and about Bernie Parent's In-Shore Fishing Challenge (July 20) in Cape May. Both events will raise money for the Ed Snider Youth Hockey Foundation.
7) July 5 Flyers Alumni birthday: John LeClair, a member of both the Flyers Hall of Fame and U.S. Hockey Hall of Fame, celebrates his 49th birthday today.
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