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Meltzer's Musings: Stamkos, HHOF, more |
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I will be the first to admit that I was utterly stunned when the Flyers made the Jeff Carter and Mike Richards trades last week. Despite the rumors (mainly about Carter), I really thought that when push came to shove, the Flyers would keep both players and find other ways to get control of their salary cap situation.
Well, as flabbergasted as I was when the news of the dual blockbuster deals filtered in one after the other, I would be even more astounded if the Flyers found a way to reel in Steven Stamkos from Tampa Bay.
It's a lovely fantasy, but I see no likely way the Flyers could put out an offer sheet that Tampa couldn't match or arrange a trade that would not be like a miniaturized version of the Eric Lindros trade with Quebec in 1992.
Currently, the Flyers will have $3.68 million of actual cap space available. I will remind everyone again that Matt Walker and Johan Backlund both come back onto the cap again, along with others on one-way contracts. Figuring that Michael Leighton, Backlund and Walker will all be waived before the start of the season, the practical cap space increases to $7.7 million.
That does not include Ian Laperriere, who will go on LTIR by the start of the season. One of these days, I need to do a blog about what LTIR is and isn't relative to the salary cap. For now, suffice to say that it is NOT free cap space -- it is an in-season allowance to go over the cap (if necessary) to replace a player for the duration of his time on LTIR.
Out of the available money, the Flyers need to sign their two restricted free agents (Jakub Voracek and Wayne Simmonds) and hope to resign impending UFA Ville Leino. Even if Leino is not brought back, the Flyers still wouldn't have nearly enough space to make an offer to Stamkos unless they shed a considerable amount of salary.
Here are some of the means -- with varying degrees of plausibility, but mostly comprised of unlikely scenarios-- by which space could be freed to take a run at landing Stamkos and then accommodate the salary under the cap:
* Brayden Schenn could be forced to spend the season in the AHL, regardless of his play in camp and the pre-season and whether or not a year in the minors would actually help his development. With bonuses, Schenn's ELC carries a $3.11 million hit.
* In addition to not re-signing Leino, the Flyers could trade off some combination of Kris Versteeg ($3.08 million), Matt Carle ($3.43 million), and/or Sergei Bobrovsky ($1.75 million) to free up some more space. Also, Jody Shelley could be waived to clear off $1.1 million.
* The team could either try to convince Scott Hartnell ($4.2 million) to waive his no-trade clause and accept a deal somewhere or could waive him and bury him in the AHL with two seasons left on his contract.
* The club could dangle trade packages to Tampa that would need to include at least one (and probably more than one) among Claude Giroux, James van Riemsdyk, Schenn and Sean Couturier as well as first-round draft picks.
In other words, folks, don't look for Stamkos in orange and black.
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Here's a hypothetical question I have been churning in my mind -- is not a rumor or even speculation about what I think might happen. It's just an idea: Rather than a team targeting Stamkos, how about trying to be one year ahead of the marketplace on Victor Hedman?
Tampa's problems with signing Stamkos stem in large part from all the big-dollar, long-term contracts with NMCs/NTCs that they are tied into and from all the money the club has been losing despite its on-ice success in 2010-11. It's not a pretty picture:
Vincent LeCavalier has a NMC and a $7.7 million cap hit through the 2019-2020 season.
Martin St. Louis has a NMC and a $5.625 million cap hit through 2014-15.
Ryan Malone has a $4.5 cap hit through 2014-15 with a NMC through the next two seasons and a partial no-trade clause in the final two seasons.
Pavel Kubina comes off the books as a UFA after next season but has a NTC on his $3.83 million cap hit contract.
Eric Brewer has a partial NTC with his $3.85 million cap hit, which runs through 2014-15.
Mattias Ohlund has a NMC (he can't be waived) with a partial NTC on his $3.6 million cap hit, which runs through 2015-16.
Whatever Stamkos' next contract is going to pay him, it will be a huge-dollar deal on top of the multitude of tough-to-shed contracts. Hedman (currently making a $3.5 million cap hit, which includes bonuses) comes up as a restricted free agent after the 2011-12 season.
In Hedman's case, it is absolutely realistic -- more likely than with Stamkos right now -- that Tampa will be faced with an offer sheet on the budding star defenseman that it will have no way to match.
I would think that an enterprising GM may be wise to go to Steve Yzerman this week and make a trade offer for Hedman -- nothing too lowball, but also less than full value for a player who is still expected to become a franchise defenseman as he continues to mature.
What Tampa would get apart from its return on Hedman is freed-up capital (over multiple seasons) to use toward keeping Stamkos while still trying to get out from some of the more egregious contract messes.
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As many people know, Mark Howe is my all-time favorite player. I was overjoyed to hear the news of his election to the Hockey Hall of Fame. My lone regret is that his mother, Colleen, is no longer alive to share in the moment. Had he been elected years ago as he should have been, the entire Howe clan could have savored it together. At least Gordie got to hear the great news when his son finally got hold of him.
I am not surprised that Fred Shero was once again denied induction. Disappointed, but not surprised. The Fog was a maverick, and he will always have detractors who hold him responsible for "ruining" the reputation of the sport in the 1970s because of the Flyers' Broad Street Bullies image. As such, I fear he will never get inducted. What comforts me is the realization that Shero himself couldn't have cared less about HHOF induction, and probably would have preferred to be kept out if he could avoid having to make a public speech about it.
Likewise, I am not surprised that neither Eric Lindros nor John LeClair earned induction. Lindros' career was too short, injury laden and strewn with controversy to have a realistic shot at winning over enough of the selection committee. Meanwhile, LeClair is wrongly perceived as having ridden Lindros' coattails during the mid-1990s to early-2000s.
When things settle down in July after the initial wave of free agent signings, I plan to write a blog on whether LeClair or Tim Kerr was the best power forward in Flyers history and, if I had a HHOF vote, which player I would choose as more deserving of consideration for the "big" Hall in Toronto (LeClair is a member of the U.S. Hockey Hall of Fame, Kerr is a member of the Flyers' team Hall).
That's a debate I waver on, as it is an extremely hard choice between the two players who were so similar on the ice in many ways and so different in others. Actually, Kerr in certain ways has more in common with Lindros than with LeClair.
In a choice of one player or the other, I am leaning toward Kerr. Perhaps it's sentimental, because those mid-1980s teams were my favorites. I certainly couldn't quibble with anyone who would choose LeClair instead. The topic should make for some interesting message board debate in a few weeks among those who were lucky enough to see both players in their primes.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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