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Meltzer's Musings: Neuvirth Bounceback, Quick Hits

May 24, 2017, 10:06 AM ET [277 Comments]
Bill Meltzer
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • RSSArchiveCONTACT
NEUVIRTH LIKELY TO PLAY BETTER IN 2017-18

Enough has already been said in the debate over whether the Flyers should re-sign Steve Mason and whether the organization made the right decision in extending Michal Neuvirth's contract by two seasons at a pay raise. The team's goaltending plan for 2017-18 has yet to unfold, and there are a host of possibilities for how it will play out over the summer. Those possibilities could even include Neuvirth winding up elsewhere after all.

For now, let's look only at the status quo of Neuvirth being the default Flyers' starter. The topic of who could be signed to share time with him or serve as his backup will not be addressed here, except to say that I do not believe the Flyers will enter the 2017-18 season with Neuvirth and Anthony Stolarz as the top two goalies on the depth chart. What they do over the next few months is up to general Ron Hextall to determine, and he's not about to tip his hand to anyone.

At present, the most important question to ask is whether Neuvirth is likely to bounce back after a subpar 2016-17 season. If so, by how much?

The short answers: Yes, he is rather likely to bounce back. Chances are that won't be all the way back to his overall stellar 2015-16 season pace (2.27 goals against average, .924 save percentage) but more predictably to something resembling his career averages (2.68 GAA, .911 SV%) and hopefully a bit better than that (perhaps a 2.55 GAA and .916 SV%).

Neuvirth has enough of a positive track record to say with confidence that he is a significantly better goalie than his 2016-17 stats (2.82 GAA, .891 SV%). However, he's been too streaky and too injury prone even as he's matured as a pro goalie to declare him worthy of being a full-time starter. He's more of a platoon guy in optimal use. Even if one looks only at what he's done since coming to the Flyers -- because what happened in previous stops rapidly becomes irrelevant -- his body of work leads to the same conclusion.

Now for the long-winded version of the analysis.

During the course of the Flyers' first round playoff defeat last year at the hands of the Washington Capitals, goaltender Michal Neuvirth almost singlehandedly willed the team to a Game 7 after Philly was on the brink of getting swept after three games. Only an unstoppable Caps' goal in a 1-0 defeat in Game 6 -- coming on heels of Neuvirth authoring a a beyond-belief 44-save road shutout in Game 5 -- prevented the series from going to the limit.

Entering the summer of 2016, the serially injury-prone Neuvirth pledged to make some adjustments to his off-season training regimen that he hoped would reduce his injury risk. He was eager to make a strong push to become the Flyers' undisputed number one goalie.

It didn't work out that way, though. After getting roughed up at times during the World Cup of Hockey but emerging with his confidence still intact, Neuvirth was the Flyers' opening night starter in Los Angeles. He won that game, stopping 23 of 25 shots by the Kings but things soon went downhill.

What followed was another injury-plagued season with prolonged time on IR, concluding abruptly with a fainting/collapsing spell in his crease early in the first period of the Flyers' April 1 home game against the New Jersey Devils. Neuvirth was stretchered off the ice and hospitalized. He also sustained concussion symptoms (presumably from the impact of hitting the ice). Thankfully, he soon received a clean bill of health and reported feeling much better.

When he was in the lineup, Neuvirth never truly found a groove. As with Steve Mason this season, there were many teams where the team in front of Neuvirth did the goalie no favors and made his job extremely tough but it was also true that Neuvirth let in a few too many leaky goals.

Mason, however, had two stretches of excellent play: most of the team's 10-game winning streak (including an NHL Player of the Week selection) and then in his final 16 games down the stretch. Neuvirth had a run of starts in February and was also tabbed by head coach Dave Hakstol for the start in a crucial March road game in Toronto, but produced a so-so performance.

Neuvirth's track record has been that of a goalie who could get red hot for several weeks or else tread water for lengthy stretches until the next, seemingly inevitable injury absence. In 2016-17, he mostly played to the level of the team. There were, of course, some 10-bell saves and a sporadic game here and there where he seemed locked in and tracked the puck flawlessly but those nights didn't happen too often.

I have always been a big believer that team defense and goalie play are deeply intertwined. Each tends to eventually raise or sink one another over larger samplings of games.

There are not many goalies around the NHL, even longtime starters, that would have had above-average save percentages for the 2016-17 season playing full-time behind the Flyers' team defense, especially before the 10-game winning streak and the period from right after the Christmas break to after the Stadium Series game in Pittsburgh. That said, both Neuvirth and Mason were themselves guilty of not coming up with enough of the stoppable chances during the months when the team goals against average was unsightly.

Keeping that context in mind, here is a sobering statistic. Fifty eight NHL goalies played in more than 15 games during the 2016-17 season. Neuvirth's .891 save percentage for the season ranked 58th. Even with injuries and even with the issues in front of him, Neuvirth should not have been dead last in the league in such a key measurement. He's significantly better than that.

How much better, though? In most every realm of work that is in the public eye, the things that get remembered are how well one starts and how well one finishes. What happens in the middle tends to be forgotten more easily.

Neuvirth's 2015-16 season was a classic example. He started brilliantly (with back-to-back shutouts in his first two starts as a Flyer, and a first-half save percentage north of 93 percent. Then the injuries and streakiness set in again. Over Neuvirth's final 16 games of the regular season, the team was winning (he posted a 10-4-2) and he dialed up some spectacular saves, but his .909 save percentage from January to April was nothing special.

Mind you, this was a small sampling of games, and no reason for concern by itself, especially given his .924 overall save percentage for the season and spectacular run in the playoffs. When one combines his first two seasons as a Flyer, his save percentage (.911) is identical to his overall career average.

Looking only at his last 44 regular season games as a Flyer (Jan. 2016 through April 27), however, his save percentage is .898 (901 saves, 1,003 shots) with a 2.67 GAA (2,289 minutes played, 102 goals against) and a 21-15-3 record. The numbers other than save percentage are OK but the save percentage in that span is not just well below his career average but also nowhere close to the league-wide average of roughly 91.5 percent of all shots being stopped.

Is that a concern? Yes, although it is unfair to simply toss out his tremendous first three months in 2015-16 and his otherworldly playoff performance against a relentless Capitals' attack. The bigger concern is that, from January 2016 until the end of this season, he's spent three prolonged stints on injured reserve. That has pretty clearly played into why he's been out of synch for much of that time period.

The injury risk is also a crucial reason for why a Neuvirth-Stolarz tandem for 2017-18 is undesirable as an offseason plan. That does NOT mean that circumstances could not work out in such a way where that ends up being the tandem for key junctures and that one or the other will not step up with big games. Hockey works out that way sometimes.

What it does mean is that a plan that involves the injury-prone veteran plus a young goalie (himself coming off a season-ending knee injury) who has only a seven-game (four starts) NHL track record to go on at this point would have be categorized as off-season downgrade in goal if it were the actual plan. The barring-trade reality is, though, that another veteran is almost certain to be brought in, more likely in a 1A/1B split with Neuvirth or else with Neuvirth as the backup and Stolarz once again pushing for an NHL recall.

It is unlikely although not impossible that the Vegas Golden Knights would choose whichever goalie the Flyers leave unprotected in the expansion draft or that a deal involving Neuvirth could be worked out (with Vegas or another team) over the summer. That would improve Stolarz's chances of starting next season in the NHL. More likely, Stolarz remains third on the Flyers' depth chart and re-enters an AHL playing time competition with Alex Lyon while jockeying for his next NHL recall.

As for Neuvirth, there's plenty of sample size to suggest that he'll be a better goalie in 2017-18 than he was in 2016-17. The Flyers need a bounceback above his overall Philly and NHL career averages but not necessarily to his overall first season numbers. If the latter happens, though, the team will be fine in goal so long as he can stay in the lineup.

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UPCOMING EVENTS

The Flyers Alumni will be very active this summer, taking part in three major events. Below is more information on each:

2017 Flyers Alumni Golf Invitational benefiting the Flyers Alumni Association, Flyers Charities and BLOCS. The event will take place at DuPont Country Club in Wilmington on June 26.

Flyers Charity Classic on July 16. Jointly organized by the Flyers and the Flyers Alumni. Participants can sign up for any of four events -- a 5k run/walk from the Wells Fargo Center to the Navy Yard and back, a 10k family bike ride (Wells Fargo Center to Art Museum and back) or individual bike ride (same route), a 50k scenic bike ride through Philadelphia or a 100k bike route. Participating Flyers Alumni include Brad Marsh (team captain), Bernie Parent (team captain), Tim Kerr (team captain), Paul Holmgren, Bob Clarke, Ian Laperriere and Joe Watson. The public can join the teams captained by Flyers Alumni (such as Brad's Ides of Marsh team), captain or join another team or participate individually. More information on teams involving the Flyers Alumni will be coming soon.

2017 Flyers Alumni Fantasy Camp in Atlantic City on Aug. 18-21, benefiting the Flyers Alumni Association and Flyers Charities. Participants will stay at the Tropicana Hotel and Casino and the on-ice activities will be at the Skate Zone in Atlantic City (transportation will be provided). Participating Alumni instructor/coaches include Hockey Hall of Famers Mark Howe and Bernie Parent, Danny Briere, Dave Poulin, Brian Boucher, Brad Marsh, Bob Kelly, Ian Laperriere, and Joe Watson.
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