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Meltzer's Musings: Flyers Goal-Scoring Outlook

July 3, 2016, 7:48 AM ET [87 Comments]
Bill Meltzer
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • RSSArchiveCONTACT
The Philadelphia Flyers finished 22nd in the National Hockey League in goal-scoring in 2015-16 with 211 goals (2.57 goals per game on average). Although the Flyers managed to produce a 96-point season and make the playoffs, their scoring will likely need to improve in order to get into postseason play again. It most certainly will need to improve to get beyond the first round of the playoffs.

A large segment of the fan base and the local media is positing doom-and-gloom over the fact that the Flyers were unable to sign a goal-scoring winger in free agency a week after bypassing prospective sniper Kieffer Bellows and power forwards Julien Gauthier and Max Jones in the 2016 NHL Draft.

Here's the thing, though: The Flyers' goal-scoring outlook really is not as bad as it seems.

In 2015-16, top-line winger Jakub Voracek slumped to just 11 goals after posting 22 (in the 48-game lockout season), 23 and 22 in the three previous campaigns. He is in what should be the prime of his career and there is every reason to believe he will bounce back to his norms in 2016-17. He's not a "pure" goal scorer -- more of a pure playmaker -- but he's certainly proven that he can get between 21 and 24 over an 82-game schedule.

What would a "normal" Voracek season have done for the Flyers' scoring in 2015-16? If he'd had 21 goals rather than 11, the Flyers would have had 221 goals (2.67 per game). That mere one-tenth of a goal per game difference was the difference between ranking 22nd in the NHL and smack dab in the middle of the pack at 15th.

Some additional bad news from last season is also something that may portend well for next season. Look up and down the Flyers' lineup of holdover players. Who among the team posted what is likely to be his "career year" goal total, and stands a significant possibility of falling short of that number even assuming he is able to play 82 games.

I counted just one player, in my estimation.

Wayne Simmonds' 32-goal, 60-point season set a new career high in goals (by three) and matched his career-best point total (last accomplished in 2013-14). Simmonds may not score 30 goals again. If healthy, however, there is also no reason to expect a big drop-off. He usually scores in the high 20s and, at age 27, is still in his prime.

Brayden Schenn, who reached new career highs with 26 goals (his second 20-goal season in the NHL) and 59 points. At age 24, he is just reaching the beginning of what should be the prime years of his NHL career. It would be disappointing if he did not score at least 25 goals again, especially given that he has become a fixture on the top power play unit, and he is capable of scoring to 28 to 30 goals with just a little more consistency over the course of the season. He's almost there. Schenn will have to serve a three-game suspension at the start of the season, which is not a great way to begin a season, but he'll still have 79 games left.

Claude Giroux (22 goals, 67 points) had an offensive season in 2015-16 that was just OK by his standards although I thought he played some of the best two-way hockey and showed some of the best leadership of his NHL career over the course of last season. Part of the reason why the Flyers signed Boyd Gordon was to alleviate some of Giroux's penalty killing burdens and use on defensive right circle faceoffs. That could increase his availability (and keep him fresher, because penalty killing is very hard work that wears players down) for offensive zone shift starts. At bare minimum, Giroux should score 22 goals again and is more likely to score around his normal 25 goals or so.

Rookie Shayne Gostisbehere scored 17 goals in just 64 games. There is every reason to believe that he is the real deal as an NHL offensive defenseman. Even if the goals drop by a few, his 29 assists should correspondingly go up which, of course, means that he's creating offense and somebody is scoring.

Then you can look around the rest of the lineup. The Flyers' secondary goal output last season was pretty modest.

Sean Couturier's offensive game was on the upswing -- including a 16-point-in-16-game stretch -- when injuries got in the way. The uptick was really more in terms of setting up teammates for goals but he is still, conservatively, capable of bettering his 11 goals (in 63 games) by a few if he plays close to 82 games.

Matt Read has had back-to-back seasons where he has struggled to score goals. As such, it would be tough to confidently predict a return to his previous 20-goal standards. However, he's at least a double-digit scorer and he had 11 last year. In the meantime, Michael Raffl may not have another 21-goal season as he did in 2014-15 when he spent a lot of time on the top line but his total of 13 from last season seems like a realistic number.

Newcomer Dale Weise has been a double-digit scorer each of the last two seasons. Part of the expectation for his role is that he, at minimum, replaces the departed Ryan White's 11 goals.

Mark Streit, one year after leading all NHL defensemen in power play points and ranking in the top-10 overall in scoring at his position, had an injury-marred down season in 2015-16 and his role was taken over by Gostisbehere. However, assuming the 38-year-old Streit (an unrestricted free agent after the 2016-17 season) is not traded, he at least remains capable of matching or bettering his six-goal and 23-point output while dressing in just 62 games last season.

It would be quite helpful to the Flyers if at least one of their NHL-roster young players, namely Nick Cousins and/or Scott Laughton, can take the next step in their offensive development at the top level. There's not enough track record at this point to say what their norms could/should be in terms of output relative to their roles.

Michael Del Zotto further improved his two-way game last season prior to his season-ending wrist injury. However, he sacrificed a not-insignificant amount of offensive opportunities in the process. Del Zotto was of significant offensive help joining the rush during the 2014-15 season (10 goals, 32 points in just 64 games). Last season, he dropped to four goals, nine assists and 13 points in 52 games. Even with his two-way workload, Del Zotto remains capable of bumping up his production rate. From the rest of the lineup, offensive production is just a bonus.

Will all of things play out according to plan? Probably not. There will be injuries. There will be players who may go through an almost inexplicable drop-off like the one Voracek had this past season. On the flip side, there will also probably be a player or two who pleasantly surprises and significantly exceeds their norms.

The point of this exercise is not to make predictions for next season or to lament what "could" have been in 2015-16. The point is:

A) There is a lot of parity in the NHL and the difference between being an average (15th) and below-average (22nd) scoring team is minimal. A single player's average vs. subpar season or a difference of just a couple goals by several players is enough to account for the one-tenth of a goal per game difference that separated the league median range from the bottom one-third.

B) A scoring upgrade through free agency or trade would have been nice, but the Flyers already have personnel capable of combining to make the club a middle-tier offensive club. There are a variety of different ways, all quite plausible and reachable, to improve on last season. No matter whom the Flyers added in free agency, they probably aren't ready to get back into top one-third of the league offensively.

C) In today's NHL, it is really two-way play -- puck possession, back pressure, shot suppression, goaltenders making the saves they need to make -- that rules the roost. Even the highest-scoring teams usually find come playoff time that they'd better be able to win those 1-0 and 2-1 games, with a few of them in overtime, if they are going to go far in the playoffs. The Flyers were a bottom one-third goal scoring team and yet took the highly favored Capitals to a 1-0 Game Six by playing them pretty evenly at five-on-five. Washington, more than anything else, won the series on superior special teams play.

D) Note that this exercise did not even factor in the possibility of someone such as Travis Konecny making the team and becoming an NHL contributor right off the bat. Could it happen? Yes. But it's not something that ought to be banked upon. Conversely, given the vital role (and contractual levels) of players such as Voracek and Giroux, the Flyers had better be able to bank on at least "typical" output. Otherwise, the odds of matching or better 96 points and a playoff berth go down dramatically.

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2016 FLYERS ALUMNI GOLF INVITATIONAL

 photo Alumni Golf 2_1.jpg

The 2016 Flyers Alumni Golf Invitational will be held on July 18 at the Philadelphia Cricket Club. The event will raise money for the Flyers Alumni Association, Flyers Charities and BLOCS.

The Golf Invitational will offer a round of golf, lunch, cocktail reception and dinner program.

Subject to changes and additions, the following Flyers Alumni -- widely representing every decade of team history -- will be attending: Ray Allison, Bill Barber, Frank Bathe, Craig Berube, Brian Boucher, Jesse Boulerice, Danny Briere, Terry Carkner, Lindsay Carson, Jeff Chychrun, Bob Clarke, Bill Clement, Steve Coates, Riley Cote, Doug Crossman, Barry Dean, Eric Desjardins, Andre "Moose" Dupont, Doug Favell, Todd Fedoruk, Ross Fitzpatrick, Mark Freer, Larry Goodenough, TJ Gorence, Paul Holmgren, Ed Hospodar, Mark Howe, Kerry Huffman, Bob "the Hound" Kelly, Tim Kerr, Orest Kindrachuk, Mike Knuble, Ian Laperriere, Mitch Lamoureaux, Neil Little, Brad Marsh, Phil Myre, Bernie Parent, Dave Poulin, Brian Propp, Chris Pronger, Luke Richardson, Don Saleski, Dave "the Hammer" Schultz (attending but not golfing), Ilkka Sinisalo, Derrick Smith, and Joe Watson.

For more information, click here.
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