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Meltzer's Musings: Development Expectations and the Value of Depth |
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There are no absolutes when it comes to projecting hockey players. Over the years, there have been many fine NHL players who were late-bloomers, some who needed multiple years in the minor leagues when they turned pro and some who actually became bigger impact players at the top level than one would ever have predicted based on their pre-NHL days.
As a rule of thumb, however, the odds are against someone who was never an upper-lineup player at any point during his formative years becoming long-tenure NHL players; even in fourth-line roles. Even players like the retired Jody Shelley (25 goals in 59 games in his final QMJHL season) generally had offensive support roles to play against lower-grade competition.
National Hockey League players, quite simply, are the best in the world. A large percentage of the league's role player ranks are filled by guys who were stars in junior/college hockey (and often in the AHL as well), but who had to find another niche to find a role in the NHL.
Chris VandeVelde was a point-per-game player by his senior year at North Dakota. Pierre-Edouard Bellemare was a fine offensive player in Europe. Going back a few years, ex-Flyer Andreas Nödl averaged more than a point-per-game in both his freshman and sophomore collegiate seasons before turning pro and was initially projected as much more of an offensive player than he became as a pro.
To go back even further, ex-Flyer Mark Lamb was a 100-point junior player and once had 88 points in just 69 games at the AHL level. Ian Laperriere once had 140 points in the Quebec League and was roughly a point-per-game player in the old International Hockey League before carving out his more familiar niche as an energy player and penalty killer who lasted 1,083 games in the NHL. Donald Brashear had 38 goals and 68 points in 66 games in the American Hockey League one year.
You get the idea. Both historically and in recent times, what a player does in junior hockey offensively may or may not translate to the pro game.
For example, if current Flyers prospect Radel Fazleev (who just posted 71 points for the Calgary Hitmen in 59 games) is going to have a significant career, it's probably going to be as a fourth-line or third-line forward who plays a smart all-around game but doesn't contribute a whole lot of points.
At the NHL's breakneck pace, only a select group of players -- the very best of the best -- are going to be capable of scoring goals regularly. That is especially true in today's ultra-structured systems. A player of the late 1980s to 1993-94 who scored, say, 25 goals and 50 points would not have been much more than a slightly above average player; a very good third liner. Today, equivalent numbers make a player a bonafide top six forward, with a pretty hefty salary to reflect it.
Something else to keep in mind; there is no such thing as too much depth in a prospect pool, whether we are talking historically or present-day. There are zero guarantees that even the very best prospects will rise to All-Star level talents or be able to sustain it if they do signs of rising toward that level. That's especially true with defensemen.
A huge part of the reason why the Flyers -- like many other NHL teams -- are investing so much on the player development side and exercising as much patience as possible is to give the prospects in the system every chance to succeed and not just to get by. Even so, not everyone is going to make it, and it's virtually impossible to state for certain just how close players will come to realizing their full upside. Most do not.
Does Ivan Provorov have all the tools to become an NHL franchise defenseman? Yes. But so did Joni Pitkanen. So did Behn Wilson. So did Kerry Huffman when he was rushed into the NHL at age 18, totally unprepared to play for Mike Keenan. At one point, Janne Niinimaa looked like he would blossom into a perennial All-Star.
Is Travis Sanheim, for all of his gaudy junior offensive D-man stats the last two years, a lock to have a big offensive impact as a pro? He has a chance, but he's not a lock. The organization is trying to help him become as well-rounded as possible. The offseason signings of T.J. Brennan and Will O'Neill, apart from instantly bolstering the Phantoms' blueline and adding to the attack, also affords Sanheim the opportunity to work on his all-around game. Do not be surprised if his rookie AHL offensive numbers are fairly modest or if he does not see a lot of first-unit power play time (especially in the first half of the season).
Some Flyers fans have gotten a little carried away in projecting Philippe Myers' offensive ceiling based on his QMJHL breakthrough of this past season. If he becomes a reliable two-way with size and mobility in the pro game -- the most translatable parts of his game at this point -- the Flyers will be thrilled.
Meanwhile, the Flyers certainly aren't looking for Chris Pronger-like offense out of Sam Morin; that comparison some in the media drew in 2013 and periodically still do was off-base from day one.
A home run with Morin would play out more like him becoming a more mobile version of Derian Hatcher -- the Flyers would be overjoyed. By the sheer odds against players maxing out their potential, the reality will probably be south of that.
Hatcher played over 1,000 NHL games, had All-Star and national team (Team USA) shoo-in seasons, was a Norris Trophy finalist one year. It is almost humorous when some Flyers fans actually try to use Hatcher as a negative comparison player, because U.S. Hockey Hall of Famer Hatcher was one hell of an NHL defenseman even with creaky knees.
To expect Morin to reach that sort of level is to set the expectations bar and the pressure too high. The development goal is to make him as consistent and as NHL-ready as possible to give him his best chance of getting as much out of his abilities as he possibly can. If Morin becomes a reliable 18-to-20-minute per game NHL defenseman in the next couple years, the pick will have been a success.
In the big picture, to have that much depth in the defense prospect pool (I didn't even get to the likes of Robert Hägg, collegiate player Mark Friedman and Phantoms rookie Reece Willcox), is a huge boon to the organization and should not be depleted in a search for quick fixes. The prospect pool is decent, too. Travis Konecny is clearly at the head of the class right now in terms of projected NHL impact but the depth has starting to fill in nicely.
Bottom line: Don't get too caught up in the hype over a prospect -- don't tally up the All-Star seasons and awards until they're earned -- and keep the long-term big picture in mind. These are the premises the Flyers operate under with Ron Hextall.
That can be frustrating to fans, who have built up very high and immediate expectations in their minds for Provorov and Konecny in particular and who simultaneously want an impact veteran or two added for 2016-17, but it's the reality of the organizational mindset and it's a philosophy that has a lot of careful consideration behind it.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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