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Meltzer's Musings: D spending, Shero, Gostisbehere

June 27, 2012, 7:03 AM ET [1054 Comments]
Bill Meltzer
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • RSSArchiveCONTACT
As of today, the Flyers have $27,592,267 of their cap salary cap space devoted to seven defensemen, according to Capgeek.com. By comparison, the team currently has $25,559,444 appropriated to 11 signed forwards.

The defense spending figure does not include pending unrestricted free agent Matt Carle, restricted free agent Marc-Andre Bourdon or fellow young defenseman Erik Gustafsson ($900,000). However, it does include Chris Pronger ($4.92 million), who will be placed on long-term injured reserve in October barring a miracle. The breakdown is as follows:

Kimmo Timonen - Signed through 2012-13, $6.33 million cap hit
Chris Pronger - Signed through 2016-17, $4.92 million
Braydon Coburn - Signed through 2015-16, $4.5 million ($3.2 million last season)
Andrej Meszaros - Signed through 2013-14, $4.0 million
Luke Schenn - Signed through 2015-16, $3.6 million
Nicklas Grossmann - Signed through 2015-16, $3.5 million ($1.625 million last season)
Andreas Lila - Signed through 2012-13, $737,500

Unaccounted for:

Matt Carle - unrestricted free agent ($3.44 million last season)
Marc-Andre Bourdon - restricted free agent ($875,000 last season)
Erik Gustafsson - Signed through 2012-13 (RFA next summer), $900,000.

I wanted to see how much cap space the Flyers were spending on their blueline in comparison to the other 29 teams. Via capgeek.com, here's where every club currently stand in money already committed to the blueline and the number of already-contracted NHL-level defensemen each team has as free agency week approaches.

FLYERS: $27,592,267 to seven defensemen
Chicago: $22,958,461 to seven
San Jose: $22,876,667 to six
Buffalo: $21,845,000 to eight
Boston: $20,548,333 to seven
Los Angeles: $19,020,833 to seven
Columbus: $18,988,810 to six
Winnipeg: $18,900,000 to six
Vancouver: $18,675,000 to six
Phoenix: $18,120,833 to seven
Toronto: $17,316,667 to five (Phaneuf, Komisarek, Liles, Gunarsson, Gardiner)
Ottawa: $16,348,333 to four (Karlsson, Phillips, Gonchar, Cowen)
Calgary: $15,966,666 to six
Florida: $15,567,875 to five (Campbell, Jovanovski, Gudbranson, Weaver)
New Jersey: $15,550,000 to five (Volchenkov, Zidlicky, Tallinder, Greene, Larsson)
Montreal: $14,750,000 to four (Markov, Kaberle, Gorges, Weber)
Dallas: $14,100,000 to five (Goligoski, Robidas, Daley, Pardy, Dillon)
Pittsburgh: $13,341,667 to five (Letang, Orpik, Martin, Lovejoy, Engelland)
Edmonton: $13,191,666 to six
St. Louis: $12,983,333 to six
Washington: $12,810,000 to six (Mike Green and John Carlson are RFAs, Wideman UFA)
Detroit: $12,633,333 to five (Kronwall, Ericsson, Kindl, White, Smith)
Carolina: $12,600,000 to six
Tampa Bay: $12,482,143 to four (Hedman, Brewer, Bergeron, Ohlund)
Islanders: $12,000,000 to five (Visnovsky, Streit, Hamonic, Donovan, McDonald)
Colorado: $11,800,000 to six (Erik Johnson is an RFA)
Rangers: $11,600,000 to five (Staal, Girardi, McDonagh, Sauer, Erixon)
Anaheim: $11,925,000 to six
Minnesota: $8,097,500 to six (Gilbert, Stoner, Kampfer, Scandella, Prosser, Spurgeon)
Nashville: $3,790,000 to three (Ellis, Klein, Josi -- Suter is UFA, Weber RFA)

Of course, there is some deceptiveness inherent to these cap breakdowns. It is not always an apples-to-apples comparison from team to team, due to differing budgets, positional needs and off-season priorities. For example, no other team would want to be in the shoes of Predators' GM David Poile right now as he attempts to convince Ryan Suter not to leave as a UFA and Shea Weber to sign a long-term deal rather than positioning himself to become a UFA next summer.

In the Flyers' case:

1) The Flyers entire projected starting blueline corps consists entirely of players acquired via trade or free agency. The inability to develop more of their own defensemen via the draft results in a higher cost to assemble the starting blueline. Marc-Andre Bourdon and Erik Gustafsson are the only homegrown players who might crack the top seven to start the season.

2) The Flyers prefer to lock up core players into long-term contracts when possible. The current contracts of Timonen, Pronger, Coburn and Grossmann were all signed with Philadelphia. The club also traded for Luke Schenn and UFA-to-be Carle knowing both players had signed long-term deals with their previous teams. The positive side of this practice is that it gives the Flyers fewer defensive FA headaches to deal with each offseason. However, getting numerous players to delay their eventual unrestricted free agency may not result in saving money on the whole.

3) The Flyers are always willing to spend near (or above, when LTIR is figured in) the cap ceiling. Over the last few years, much of the emphasis has been on adding to their blueline personnel.

4) Pronger's career-threatening concussion issues really threw a wrench into the works, both from a hockey perspective and in terms of cap management.

Any way you slice it, the Flyers are already spending a disproportionate amount of money on their blueline. Assuming Carle is signed to a multi-year deal paying in the $4.75 million range, their spending on the blueline for next season will be pushed over the $30 million mark when you include Pronger's contract.

As such, it seems almost imperative that the Flyers lose a bit of salary on the blueline, even apart from placing Pronger on LTIR. The most logical guy to be traded would be Andrej Meszaros, not because he's a bad player (he did with the Barry Ashbee Trophy in 2011-12) but because he doesn't have a no-trade clause in his contract and is coming off back surgery this past season.

Don't get me wrong: I'd be fine with the Flyers keeping Meszaros, especially in light of the fact that Timonen is also coming off back surgery. But assuming Carle is re-signed, they will then have a bit of a numbers game problem. A team can never have too much depth on defense but they also need some flexibility. Barring a trade of some sort, the Flyers are almost forced to carry eight defensemen to start next season.

Veteran Andreas Lilja is a slightly cheaper option for the seventh defenseman role than restricted free agent Marc-Andre Bourdon. But Bourdon is already the better player. The young defenseman also needs playing time. Unfortunately, he is now subject to waivers if the Flyers want to send him down to the AHL. It is a virtual certainty that Bourdon would not clear waivers, let alone sneak through recall waivers if the Flyers need him.

As for Lilja, the player is on an over-35 contract. The Flyers are probably going to be stuck with his cap hit this season -- albeit a modest one -- unless they can find a team looking for a veteran spare defenseman or one that needs to add a few salaries (preferably ones that come off the books next year, as Lilja's will) to get to the salary cap floor.

Come next summer, Timonen's contract is off the books. While that's good news cap-wise, it also creates the need for long-term planning on the blueline (especially given Pronger's status). As such, the Flyers figure for years to come to continue spending more on their defense corps than any other team in the NHL.

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Four of the seven picks the Flyers made in the 2012 NHL Draft were used on defensemen. Hopefully, one or two of these picks will ultimately develop into NHL defensemen. It does not appear as if any of these players will be NHL-ready within the next 3 seasons, but that's fine so long as they are given ample time to develop.

An unplanned benefit of the Flyers' long-term, big money commitment to numerous defensemen at the NHL level is that it almost forces them to keep blueline prospects at the AHL level a little longer, giving them more time to develop than had been the common practice of the organization in the past.

Last season, Bourdon took a big jump in his development in his third pro campaign. He had experienced plenty of ups and downs over his first two pro seasons but was not rushed by the organization. Likewise, being blocked at the NHL level will give Erik Gustafsson (who is still waiver exempt for one more season) and Phantoms defensemen Brandon Manning and Oliver Lauridsen extra time to develop.

None of these players project as being more than fifth defensemen in the NHL. But even if one or two of them eventually crack the third pairing and give the big club serviceable play, it will be a way to save money.

Contending NHL teams need a few young players to provide low-cost value to the lineup.
Last season, Matt Read did just that for the forward corps. Before his concussion issues over the latter part of the season, Bourdon did it on a smaller scale for the defense. So did Gustafsson, albeit more sporadically than Bourdon.

Of the four defensemen the Flyers' selected last weekend, the one who might become an NHL player the soonest is Union College defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere. Coming off a strong freshman season for Frozen Four Cinderella team Union College (ECAC), the Florida native became the Flyers' third round pick (78th overall).

He was ranked 148th among North American skaters by Central Scouting but the Flyers were apparently not the only NHL team that considered choosing the player within the top two to four rounds of the Draft. Although he was obscure heading into the 2011-12 season, Gostisbehere opened plenty of eyes over the course of the past season.

Broadcaster and former USA Hockey communications person Chris Peters, who also authors the United States of Hockey blog, immediately praised the Flyers' selection of Gostisbehere via Twitter. Peters called the player one of his "favorite sleepers," and nothed that the player "showed high-end offensive tools at Union this year."

Gostitsbehere is a smooth skater, puck handler and slick passer with good hockey sense. He has an explosive and accurate shot. The main question mark with him is his lack of size. At a generously listed 5-foot-11, 160 pounds, Gostisbehere is an inherent disadvantage in consideration for the NHL. He'll no doubt work to add muscle (if not, he won't make it to the entry-level) but size will always be held against him until he conclusively proves it's not a concern in his case.

For every Kimmo Timonen, Brian Rafalski or Tobias Enström that overcomes a lack of size to become a top-flight NHL defenseman there are many more who fall by the wayside long before they reach the top level. If and when he gets to the pro level, Gostisbehere is going to have to be well above-average in his hockey savvy as well as his skills to make it in the NHL. He'll have to outwork and outfox bigger, stronger players.

In a best-case scenario, Gostisbehere has a chance to eventually be sort of a blueline version of forward Read. But that is likely to be some years down the road. The Flyers will have the duration of his NCAA eligibility -- up to three more years -- to evaluate whether to sign him to an entry-level contract, and he is likely to also need a little time in the AHL.

The European-based NHL scout I spoke with on Monday said he was not familiar with the player. The North American scout had not scouted the player in person but was familiar with his collegiate season and said that he agreed with Peters' assertion that Gostisbehre has a chance to be a sleeper.

"Some of our people liked him, too," the scout said. "Good skills and pretty good head for the game. I don't know if he'll be an offensive defenseman if he makes to the NHL or more of a puck mover, but he has an explosive shot and good wheels.... Yes, the size is a concern but it's not a fatal issue. Defensemen take a beating out there, though, so he will have to be physically ready to compete. ... Truth be told, there are always guys like him in every draft. if you take 10 players like him, one or two might become an NHL player. But there's no reason right now why he can't be the one who does. Even if he doesn't make it, it makes some sense to take guys like him in the Draft when you get the chance."

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Once again, the 18-man selection committee for the Hockey Hall of Fame rejected the candidacy of the late Fred Shero in the Builder's category under which coaches and general managers are eligible for the Hall.

I am disappointed by the result, but not surprised. Although the votes of the committee are kept under wraps, it is no secret that there has long been been a block of current and former committee members who are strongly opposed to inducting Shero.

Despite several recent media pieces stumping on behalf of the Fog, I held out only mild hope that he'd be chosen 22 years after his death. I figured there was a chance that with some long-time Shero detractors -- believed to include the likes of Harry Sinden and Emile Francis -- no longer on the committee that his supporters (believed to be led by Mike Emrick) might be able to lobby successfully this time around. But I also knew the odds were still against it.

It is hard to explain exactly why Shero is constantly denied enshrinement. Part of it, I'm sure, is that some hold him responsible person for the "Broad Street Bullies" style of play and the NHL's goon image of the 1970s. But, as several others have pointed out, the GM (Keith Allen) and captain (Bob Clarke) of those teams are in the Hall as well as the owner (Ed Snider) who insisted in the late 1960s that he never see another Flyers team get pushed around.

Beyond that, the eccentric Shero was a maverick. He disdained most management types, and stubbornly did things his own way regardless of what others thought. Although painfully shy and socially awkward, Shero minced no words over the years in criticizing a host of practices by the league establishment and fostering an us-versus-them mentality with his players. In turn, he made some enemies and they resented any success he had.

It is not a big secret that Shero privately battled alcohol abuse and at times late in his coaching career, it may have come to affect his ability to run his team on a day-to-day basis. However, I doubt this significantly works against his candidacy. There are plenty of men in the Hall who dealt with that same demon in their personal lives.

When you way all of Shero's merits for the Hall, it should be a no-brainer that he belongs. Start with his coaching success at various levels of hockey, his two Stanley Cup wins, his assorted lasting contributions to the profession (including the introduction of assistant coaches) and then also add in his early use of video study in preparation, his way-ahead-of-its-time realization that North American coaches could learn from studying Russian hockey and his early support of the NHL capabilities of European players.

Even his cryptic blackboard messages and some of the more outlandish drills he ran at practice had a purpose them. They were either designed to inspire his players, help them bond with their teammates or simply to have some fun at the rink to break up the monotony of the long season.

One bit of consolation I take from Shero's constant rejection by the HHOF: If he were alive
today, he'd have accepted the honor but would do so somewhat grudgingly. One of my favorite Shero quotes -- spoken in the context of being asked about whether he felt vindicated by the Flyers' success of the mid-1970s -- pretty well sums up his philosophy on honors such as recognition by the Hockey Hall of Fame.

"When someone who was always called a kook starts to be called an innovator, it means he's not really very innovative anymore," Shero said.

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