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Meltzer's Musings: Cap math |
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Signing Ilya Bryzgalov without gutting the core of the Flyers' team for salary cap space need not be nearly as difficult as people make it out to be. The real problem is going to be signing Bryzgalov and Ville Leino (or a suitable replacement) and staying under the cap without a bonus cushion.
We do not yet know how much the cap will go up for next season, but let's assume for now that the rumored $3 million figure is correct. That will not help toward signing Bryzgalov, because Claude Giroux is getting a $2.93 million raise against the cap as his new contract kicks in. The cap increase should offset Giroux's new contract but that's all the help it'll give Philly.
However, it is a no-brainer that the Flyers will not sign UFA winger Nikolay Zherdev ($2 million) UFA defenseman Nick Boynton ($500,0000) and there would not be a need for Brian Boucher ($925,000). If the Flyers were to trade Kris Versteeg ($3,083 million) for a draft pick, that would create a maximum of $6.058 million of cap space as of July 1.
It has been rumored that Bryzgalov's agent, Rich Winter, is demanding huge money for his client's services but what people forget is that there ways to bring the cap figure down -- and even in the wake of the NHL bringing the hammer down on New Jersey for the Ilya Kovalchuk signing, it can be done in a way where the contract isn't for so long that the league would have cause to strike it down.
For example, let's suppose that Winter and Bryzgalov would be agreeable to a six-year contract that pays the goaltender a whopping $8 million per season for the first three years and then drops to $4 million in season four and $3 million in seasons five and six. The contract would carry a $5.67 million cap hit. An 8-year contract paying $8 million the first four years and $4 million the final four years would be a $6 million cap hit.
Would such a deal be overpaying for Bryzgalov? Yes, but that's just the reality of the Flyers' situation right now. If they are intent on signing Bryzgalov, that may very well be what they have to do.
Note: This Bryzgalov scenario and the one below also assumes that the Flyers will get NHL approval for carrying Ian Laperriere on LTIR all season, so that his $1.17 million contract will not be dead space on the cap. If Laperriere retires, the Flyers have to absorb his full cap hit.
The real problem won't be signing Bryzgalov, it's going to be affording a full lineup of forwards once he's signed.
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Using the Capgeek.com calculator, I looked at what it would take to get Ville Leino signed and remain under the cap (just barely) if Bryzgalov is signed. Herein lies the real problem.
In crunching the numbers, it's going to be virtually impossible -- without additional trades -- to keep Leino or sign a comparable replacement and remain cap compliant.
Let's suppose that the six-year contract with the $5.67 million cap hit would be agreeable to Bryzgalov. Then add in the CBA-required 10 percent raises for restricted free agents Andreas Nödl and Darroll Powe.
With Nodl, because his base salary of $650,000 — total salary of $735,000 minus signing bonus of $85,000 — is less than $660,000, it is increased by 10 percent for the purposes of his qualifying offer. As a result, the minimum the Flyers could sign him for would be $715,000. With Powe, the qualifying offer would be $761,250.
Now suppose the Flyers were to waive Jody Shelley ($1.1 million) and not resign Dan Carcillo ($1.075 million). The Flyers could start the season with Tom Sestito ($635,520 figuring in a 10 percent raise) and Zac Rinaldo ($544,444) as cheaper alternatives to the "toughness" roles in the lineup.
On the blueline, the team may well have to replace UFA veteran Sean O'Donnell ($1.3 million) with either Oskars Bartulis ($600,000) or Erik Gustafsson ($900,000). In terms of backup goaltending, the team will waive Michael Leighton ($1.55 million) so long as Sergei Bobrovsky ($1.75 million without a bonus cushion) is not traded.
That would still leave a maximum of just $1,885,717 toward filling Leino's roster spot, and that won't be nearly enough to sign him. If the bonus cushion were to remain in place, however, the Flyers could go up to about $3.25 million for Leino -- but that would force the team to carry just 12 forwards and 6 defensemen, creating hassles every time there is an injury and severely limiting the Flyers' trading ability.
It is also worth noting again that James van Riemsdyk will be a restricted free agent after next season and Braydon Coburn and Matt Carle will both be unrestricted free agents.
Unless the club were to make one of those rumored deals involving a high-salaried player without a no-trade clause in his contract, you may well be looking at Matt Read ($900,000) in the Leino spot in the lineup and with players such as Sestito and Rinaldo rounding out the lineup on the fourth line.
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One scenario that the Flyers hope to avoid -- but must be discussed as a realistic possibility-- is what would happen if Chris Pronger is not ready to start next season after undergoing back surgery.
The only small silver lining to a situation in which Pronger would start the season on LTIR is that the team would get temporary wiggle room on his $4.92 million cap hit. Of course, they'd also find themselves with two of three among Bartulis, Gustafsson and Kevin Marshall in their starting lineup on opening night.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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