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Meltzer's Musings: 6/10/11

June 10, 2011, 11:02 AM ET [ Comments]
Bill Meltzer
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Currently, the Flyers stand to wait until the third round of the 2011 NHL Entry Draft to make their first pick. This was also the case last season, and with third-rounder Michael Chaput having been dealt to Columbus in the Tom Sestito trade, the Flyers' highest pick remaining in the system is 4th rounder, Tye McGinn.

Earlier this week, the Flyers shot down rumors about the club considering a deal that would send the 8th pick of the 2011 Entry Draft along with Jakub Voracek (a 2007 first-rounder) here in exchange for Jeff Carter. However, I would not be surprised if the Flyers wind up making some moves that end up providing the club with a pick in the first- and/or second round of the draft.

This year's draft is supposedly a fairly weak one in terms of producing potential franchise players. There is not a consensus first overall pick between Red Deer Rebels center Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Skellefteå AIK defenseman Adam Larsson. Some scouts believe that Kitchener Rangers right wing Gabriel Landeskog will end being the best player in the draft.

The safest pick is probably Larsson, although Nugent-Hopkins has first-line center potential and Landeskog could eventually blossom into a first line winger. Larsson is the closest to being NHL ready right now.

With Chris Pronger and Kimmo Timonen aging (and Pronger coming off back, hand, foot and knee surgeries within the last 10 months) and with Braydon Coburn and Matt Carle both a year away from unrestricted free agency, it is important that the Flyers start thinking about grooming some replacements to join Andrej Meszaros as part of the team's long-range picture. I think the Flyers will get one of Coburn or Carle re-signed but not both, considering that James van Riemsdyk will be an restricted free agent. There are no projectable impact defensemen currently in the Flyers farm system.

Considering all of these factors, if I were Paul Holmgren, Larsson is the guy I would target if I were to consider making a big trade. He has a shot at being a legitimate top-pairing NHL defenseman within a few years and probably could hold his own in the NHL next season (although he's more likely spend an additional season in Sweden).

If he had been draft-eligible last year, Larsson probably would have been a first-round pick in 2010. He currently has two full years of Elitserien experience as a regular and he was a significant contributor this season for a club that reached the finals. Although he has not shown much of an offensive game -- even at the Swedish junior levels, he was never a big point-producer -- the potential is there. He also has a righthanded shot and is a slick puck mover regardless of the point totals.

Even if the offensive end of his game doesn't emerge, Larsson is very solid in his own of the ice. Physically, he's already a man (6-3, 210 pounds) and he is an outstanding skater. He is also reasonably physical and is not afraid to mix it up when he has to. Injuries limited him to 37 regular season games this season. Paired with veteran Fredrik Lindgren, Larsson was a plus-12 during the regular season.

Although there are never any guarantees with a prospect, it is not hard to project Larsson as a number two defenseman in the NHL with franchise player potential if the offensive production emerges. On the flip side, I would be very hesitant to trade Carter (or Mike Richards) to try to move up to one of the top two picks of the draft, and that's probably what it would take.

Larsson is not the only good blueline prospect in the draft this season, but he's the easiest to project because of his size, skating and his Elitserien performance as a teenager. If the Flyers do wind up trading into the first round, there is a good chance that they would end up taking a defenseman -- not just because of positional need but also because 6 of the top 13 North American skaters and two of the top three Euros in the Central Scouting rankings are defensemen.
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