1) Ten years ago, the last time the Philadelphia Flyers held the second overall pick of the NHL Draft, there was a runaway candidate for the first overall pick (Patrick Kane) heading into the opening round and then there was a slew of prospects that were rather tightly bunched. This year, while there are no can't-miss superstars, there is a consensus top two of Nolan Patrick and Nico Hischier.
The likes of Bob McKenzie, Craig Button and Darren Dreger have stated that they believe the New Jersey Devils will opt for Hischier with the first overall pick and the Flyers will take Patrick. Not surprisingly, neither Devils general manager Ray Shero nor Flyers counterpart Ron Hextall have confirmed that they are locked in on these two players. There have been a few outlier media rumors about either the Devils or Flyers planning to go slightly off the board or accepting a trade package to move down.
In terms of whom to believe about teams' draft plans, McKenzie and Button remain the go-to names because of their connections within every organization and the respect they enjoy within the NHL community. That does not mean there could not be a last-minute blockbuster offer (from the Vegas Knights or elsewhere) that convinces Shero or Hextall to trade down. It is still much more likely that the Devils come to the podium first and the Flyers second when all is said and done.
Despite the ever-growing secrecy of NHL teams in tightly guarding their internal rankings -- the last team picking first that publicly disclosed its plans were the Colorado Avalanche in 2013 prior to selecting Nathan MacKinnon -- McKenzie in particular has connections to get inside information about teams' plans. He has said that, from all he's heard, all signs point to the consensus top-two becoming the actual top two.
For his part, Hextall has pointed out the historical truth that
pre-draft consensus isn't always proven right five or six years down the line as to whom the best NHL players turn out to be. While some have misinterpreted this statement or called it a misdirection, the Flyers' GM was simply explaining why even an organization picking at or near the top of the draft has to do thorough pre-draft home work and trust its own internal rankings rather than worrying about where Central Scouting, ISS and the pundits have players ranked.
2) The 2017 Draft is probably not an ideal year for trade-down scenarios. It is not an especially deep draft, which does not mean there won't be anyone outside the top few picks to emerge or any later round high-yield selections that click. It does mean there aren't going to be a lot of players who are ready for the NHL as teenagers and probably means there are going to be quite a few picks even on the high end who end up having nondescript NHL careers or even missing entirely.
Besides, the Flyers already own 11 picks in this year's Draft. Picking up even more quantity of picks, even multiple first-round selections, probably isn't the top priority. The plan changer would have to be in terms of also getting an established young NHLer with impact-player ability -- or at least a high-end NHL-ready prospect -- plus high-end draft pick assets for next year as well as staying at least near enough to the top of the first round this year to still land one of their trade-down scenario target prospects.
How likely is it that any team considers Patrick or Hischier to be such a slam dunk candidate to step in immediately and then quickly blossom into an elite performer --not "just" a first-line player but a franchise-player type -- that they would give up enough value to vault the Flyers immediately from playoff bubble team to a top three team in the Metro plus other draft pick assets? Not very likely, although Vegas might presumably be willing to give up all three of its 2017 first-rounders (6th, 13th and 15th) and an NHL roster player.
Actually, looking over the Golden Knights' selections in the Expansion Draft, the "current young impact player" requirement that Hextall most likely would demand as a must-have to trade down couldn't really be met. Twenty-nine-year-old James Neal no longer qualifies as a young player, and will be an unrestricted free agent after the 2017-18 season. While he'd add much-needed goal-scoring pop on the wing, he alone wouldn't be the difference between battling to eke out a wildcard spot and pushing for a top-three finish in the loaded Metro.
More likely, the Flyers will hope to add one of the few 2017 Draft candidates who could debut as an NHL regular next season (or at least be ready to do so by 2018-19), continue to see how their already in-house prospects prove ready to make the NHL jump and then add veterans accordingly moving ahead.
We shall see, however. If my read is wrong, it would hardly be the first time. What I am certain about is that quality is preferable to quantity and the Flyers, simply by standing pat, have a chance to land their future first-line or at least second-line center. Such players aren't all that easy to find.
3) Even if the Flyers keep their first-round pick, they very well could be involved in other trades this weekend. While I don't foresee Hextall making major changes to the nucleus group, I wouldn't totally dismiss the idea of the Flyers making a deal that involves an upper-lineup player if the return makes immediate and longer-term sense. More likely, the Flyers will explore the goalie trade market before looking to free agency. With the Golden Knights having passed on Michal Neuvirth in the Expansion Draft, the chances of the Flyers re-signing Steve Mason dropped to virtually zero. If they go the trade route, I think they'd ideally like to get a veteran goalie who is signed only through next season and has platooning experience. At maximum, they don't want to go more than two years out with a vet contract.
4) Along those lines, I still think the Flyers and Dallas Stars could be a trade fit for a goaltender-related deal. The Flyers could live with one year of a Michal Neuvirth and Antti Niemi tandem and still be at least a playoff bubble team as long as Neuvirth can stay at least somewhat healthy and has a bounceback season to at least his career norms.
Say what you will about Niemi, who is coming off a decidedly subpar season and who has worked no miracles in tandem with Kari Lehtonen behind a team defense even more porous that Philly's has been at times. He also has a Cup ring in Chicago and was a Vezina finalist with San Jose, so the argument that "you can't win with this guy" isn't true. At 33, he's no kid but he isn't ancient.
There is no doubt that the Stars do not want to come back from Draft weekend in Chicago with Lehtonen and Niemi both still part of the organization after the acquisition of Ben Bishop. They are dealing from a position of weakness on this one, though, especially because Lehtonen has a $5.9 million cap hit and Niemi has a $4.5 million price tag next season before both become unrestricted free agents.
A deal that would make some sense for both sides could involve the Stars sending Niemi and a 2018 second-round pick to the Flyers for one of their three consecutive picks in the fourth round of this weekend's draft. If offsetting some of Niemi's cap hit is also a priority, the Flyers could include 2018 unrestricted free agent forward Matt Read ($3.625 cap hit). However, with Nick Cousins having been traded to Arizona, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare lost to Arizona in the Expansion Draft and unrestricted free agent Chris VandeVelde iffy to be re-signed, the Flyers might be more inclined to keep Read around for the final year of his contract.
5) Over on the Flyers' official website, I wrote an article that compares some of the ins and outs of the NHL Draft to its counterpart drafts in the National Football League, Major League Baseball and National Basketball Association. Just a little
change of pace from the endless Patrick vs. Hischier articles that really are more suited to discussing the team picking first since the Flyers in all probability won't have the option of selecting from both.
6) The NHL released its full 2017-18 regular season schedule yesterday. That probably should have waited until next week with so much else going on -- NHL Awards, Expansion Draft, Entry Draft -- this week. The Flyers' schedule, with its tough road trip to open the campaign, is available for
PDF download here. A blog planned for next week will look at the Flyers' schedule for next season. Will only say for now that starting out the season with four straight tough inter-conference road games could actually beneficial because sometimes the best time to catch high-end opponents is either at the very beginning of the season (while they are still getting everything in synch) or at the tail end (when they are mostly in mental tune-up mode before for the playoffs and not locked in a game-by-game dogfight just to reach the postseason).
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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