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Flyers 2017 Draft Weekend: First Night Wrapup & Analysis |
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FLYERS DRAFT PATRICK SECOND OVERALL
As soon as the New Jersey Devils announced Nico Hischier as the first pick of the 2017 NHL Draft, it was a slam dunk for the Philadelphia Flyers to select Nolan Patrick with the second pick. The feeling here is that, if not for the dual sports hernia this past season, Patrick would still have been the runaway first overall pick this year no matter what did Hischier did in his rocket-like ascension this season.
Although scouting is supposed to be all about the big picture of larger sample sizes and educated guesstimates of the long-term future, recency bias sometimes factors in as well. Only time will tell if Hischier and Patrick prove to be best two NHL players in this Draft class -- and how they stack up to one another as pros -- but both are pretty safe bets to become impact players at the top level even if they aren't quite franchise players.
Prior to their stroke of good luck in the NHL Draft lottery to move up from 13th to 2nd, the notion of the Flyers being able to obtain Patrick without a major trade-up offer (beyond what general manager Ron Hextall likely would have been willing to make) would have seemed far-fetched. Additionally, if Patrick had been born just four days earlier, he'd have qualified for the 2016 NHL Draft. Coming off a 106-point WHL season for the Brandon Wheat Kings, he may have gone as early as third (after Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine). In any plausible scenario, he wouldn't have been around for the Flyers by the time their originally slated pick came up at 18th overall prior to trading down to 22nd.
It is not set in stone that Patrick will immediately jump to the NHL and become a regular for the Flyers. However, he has a strong chance of doing so with a reasonably solid training camp and preseason.
FLYERS TRADE SCHENN TO ST. LOUIS
While the selection of Patrick second overall was no surprise to anyone, the Flyers' subsequent blockbuster trade that sent Brayden Schenn to the St. Louis Blues caught many in Philadelphia off guard. The deal was unexpected but not a complete shock.
Hextall said on exit interview day that he would not completely rule out off-season deals that involved core-group players. Despite scoring 51 goals and 114 points over the past two seasons, Schenn always seemed like the most likely player from that group to get dealt if a big return came the Flyers way.
Naturally, there has been a lot of knee-jerk fan and media reaction to the trade. Looked at realistically, this is a trade that will take years to accurately gauge on how beneficial or detrimental it turns out to be for the Flyers.
First the particulars and then the analysis: In exchange for Schenn, the Flyers received a current NHL roster player (veteran two-way center Jori Lehterä), the 27th overall pick of the 2017 first round (which the Flyers used on the selection of Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds center Morgan Frost) and a conditional 2018 first-round pick from St. Louis.
The condition on the second pick is that, if it falls within the top 10 selections in the 2018 Draft, the Blues have the right to keep it. If so, they will instead send the Flyers their 2019 first-rounder (where it may fall in the draft order) plus a 2020 third-round pick.
From a sheer asset management perspective, obtaining two first-round picks plus an NHL roster player for Schenn is pretty much an offer that can't be refused by any team that is not in win-now mode as Stanley Cup contenders.
To be certain, it's a bold move. Right now, it seems to be an unpopular move, which is understandable. Most folks think only in terms of instant gratification. The optics of an immediate swap-out of Schenn for Lehterä is that it deletes goal-scoring from a Flyers team already in need of more of it and that the Finn is the less physical player and coming to a club that probably could use a bit more snarl.
Lehterä is a decent playmaker with a big frame. Although not especially physical, he knows how to use his 6-foot-2, 212-pound frame and heavy stick. He has never been much of a goal scorer but can set up teammates effectively with clever passes. The biggest concern is that he is a below-average skater by NHL standards.
For the analytics minded, he has typically been decent in puck possession metrics at 5-on-5 (helped by starting nearly 60 percent of his even strength shifts in the offensive zone) and is an above average two-way player by the current day definition. He typically has outstanding credited takeaway vs. charged giveaway ratios and has won slightly more than half (50.3 percent) of the draws he's taken to date in his NHL career.
Basically, Lehterä is a role player who is coming off a bad production year offensively. At age 29, he has two seasons to go on a contract that carries a $4.7 million cap hit. Schenn, who had a somewhat arduous contract negotiation (but averted arbitration) as a restricted free agent last summer, has three years to go on a deal with a $5.125 million cap hit.
With the departures of Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (expansion draft), Nick Cousins (traded the Arizona) and now Schenn, there are roles available not only for Lehterä but also potentially for Scott Laughton and Mike Vecchione. It was rumored last night that the Flyers would flip Lehterä to the Vegas Golden Knights in exchange for picks. However, if that had been the immediate plan, last night's trade more likely would have been done as a de facto three-way trade.
In any scenario, Lehterä's acquisition is not the vital part of the trade from the Flyers' standpoint. It will be Frost's development and that of whomever the Flyers obtain in the 2018 or 2019 first-round with the second St. Louis selection that will be the keys to this deal.
Frost largely flew under the scouting radar this season as a likely first-round pick. However, former Montreal Canadiens' scout Grant McCagg's Recrutes publication ranked Frost 21st overall and as one of the top six playmakers of the draft class. McKeen's Hockey ranked Frost as the draft class's second-fastest skater while placing him 41st overall. Bob McKenzie had Frost slightly outside the first round but within the first six picks of the second round.
While some self-proclaimed draft pundits deemed Frost's skating "average", the player won both 30-meter speed burst competitions -- with and without the puck -- during the skills testing portion of the CHL Top Prospects showcase. In game conditions, he tends to be a little more deliberate but pure speed is one of his best assets along with clever playmaking ability. The real issues are that he's undersized, needs to add strength and may end up being a winger as a pro rather than a center. He's not ready to challenge for an NHL spot right away but has high upside down the road several seasons. It will just take patience to track his development from year to year.
Schenn is something of a polarizing player. The Flyers have long wanted to see a little more consistency and focus out of him, especially in 5-on-5 play. At times, he plays with a lot of sandpaper to his game and other times is disengaged. He's become a power play goal-scoring force the last couple seasons (especially in 2016-17).
Throughout his time with the Flyers, Schenn shuttled between all three forward positions and, while he prefers to play center, has been arguably better as a winger. The Blues apparently envision him as a number one center, but Schenn really has never shown signs into developing into a top-end pivot.
Schenn's best chemistry has often come when playing on Sean Couturier's wing -- on either side. The two players just seemed to click as linemates. For whatever reason, the Flyers always seemed to break up the duo to start every new season and then didn't get back to placing them together again until much later in the campaign.
Entering the 2015-16 season, Schenn was a designated player of whom new head Dave Hakstol tried to make an example. During the preseason, he often played on lines outside the likely top 12. Early in the season, he was a healthy scratch for one game.
Schenn never directly ripped Hakstol, on or off the record. He rolled with the punches and went on to have his two most productive offensive seasons in the NHL to date while solidifying his hold on a top power play unit spot in the role formerly played by Scott Hartnell.
Even so, it wasn't hard to read between the lines that Schenn was not a big Hakstol fan even as Hakstol started to show more trust in him. When asked directly, he also never made any pretense that he his ultimate goal was anything other than an eventual full-time return to centering duties. Based on performance, though, he played more effectively as a winger.
Who will take over Schenn's role on the power play and the lineup? One candidate is Swedish rookie Oskar Lindblom, who performed similar duties in the SHL with Brynäs IF Gävle. Even if he does not get handed those tasks immediately, Lindblom has the potential to do so in the near future. Additionally, assuming the Flyers re-sign Jordan Weal, the small-but-skilled forward will take on some offensively responsibilities. The righthanded-shooting Patrick will be a power play performer for the Flyers as well, although he may start out on the second unit (as the left-shooting Lindblom also might).
Day Two Of Draft
In addition to currently owning 10 additional picks between rounds two and seven of the Draft, the Flyers may try to trade for a goaltender before departing Chicago.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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