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GMRF Needs To Cut Ties with Marcoux |
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Today, I want to address why I think it is time that the Hurricanes part ways with goalie coach David Marcoux. Many people will merely point to Cam Ward as the reason for Marcoux's results, however, that is merely lazy and way overgeneralized of an explanation.
Let’s go back in history a bit: Marcoux was hired in the summer of 2014. He was known for working with Miikka Kiprusoff with the Flames from 2003-2009. In addition, during the lock-out season in 2004-05, he worked with Ward in Lowell because Calgary and Carolina shared an AHL team.
It appears that Marcoux is best fit to coach more athletic/reactionary goalies with average size, as opposed to what appears a recent change with styles that are more geared towards blocking. The goalies Marcoux was inheriting in the summer of 2014 fit that description too—Ward and Khudobin.
Ward had exponential dips in his season save percentage from a .923 SV% in 2010-11, to his career worst .898 SV% in 2013-14. Marcoux did appear to help Ward in his first season, as Ward posted a GAA and SV% right around the league averages in 2014-15 and improved to a .910 SV% and 2.40 GAA. However, how much of that really was Marcoux?
Ward had battled through the lockout and injuries in 2013-14. A rise in his SV% likely had little to do with Marcoux and more the fact that for the first time in 2-3 years, Ward was able to stay on the ice. If things had of gone as planned, these statistics would’ve been sound for a back-up who saw around 20-30 games.
Looking at Khudobin, he was actually very promising for the Hurricanes. In fact, in his first season with the Hurricanes in 2013-14, he posted a 2.30 GAA and .926 SV% in 36 games. This was the most games he had seen in an NHL season, as he previously only had 19 starts in four seasons of NHL play—it wasn’t until 2012-13 that he stayed in the NHL for an extended period and he started 14 games with the Bruins in 2012-13.
He was the kind of free agent signing that I believe GMRF thought would be the answer to the goalie transition. He had been developed with tons of AHL experience, had great NHL stats and showed a strong risk/reward trade-off. In addition, during his two years in Boston, the Bruins won the Cup (2011-12) and lost in the finals to the Blackhawks (2012-13). Ultimately, he came from a winning franchise, had a strong upside and should have been hitting his prime.
If you look at beginning of Khudobin’s NHL experience in 2009-10 and extend it through 2013-14, Khudobin was tied for first in the NHL with Rask and Schneider with a .928 SV% out of all goalies with 50+ games played according to NHL.com. Narrowing it down to just 2012-13 and 2013-14, he was third with a .924 SV% behind only Rask and Bobrovsky.
Despite looking like he could take control of the Hurricanes’ crease, he had his worst NHL season in 2014-15 (year Marcoux arrived), starting 32 games with an 8-17-6 record, 2.72 GAA and .900 SV%. His SV% was the 5th worst in the NHL looking at goalies with more than 15 games started. Perhaps his decline was a result less of Marcoux and more that with an NHL sample size closer to 100 games, teams had finally solved how to beat him.
He was traded in the summer of 2015 with one year remaining on his contract, as the Hurricanes attempted to bolster up what was considered a relatively weak blue-line in comparison to many other franchises. GMRF was quoted by Chip Alexander with The News and Observer saying, “When you look at our team, an area we want to improve on is defense. The first deal we got was Wisniewski and it took Khudobin to do that…”
In fact, I’m willing to say that this move was probably one of the earliest and biggest (and few) mistakes GMRF has made in his tenure as GM. The trade might’ve actually worked out if Wisniewski hadn’t suffered a tragic injury during his first game in Carolina and was later bought out.
This trade is often overlooked because of Khudobin’s performance in 2012-13, however, based on his stats earlier and development under Wild goalie coach Bob Mason, Bruins’ goalie coach Bob Essensa and previous Hurricanes’ goalie coach Greg Stefan, all signs pointed that he could be a good NHL goalie. So where did things go wrong?
Let’s move the focus back towards Marcoux. He has seen declines in all three of his NHL goalies in Carolina—Lack, Ward and Khudobin. Ward has seen an exponential decline the past two seasons that is eerily similar to the one from 2011-12 through 2013-14; his season SV% is a .905 and almost a full percent below the league average.
Lack was acquired from the Canucks within one hour of the trade for Khudobin in June 2015. Other than the fact that he was significantly larger than Khudobin, he posted good numbers in Vancouver during his first two NHL seasons through 82 games played. Again, looking at goalies with over 50+ games played, he was tied for 17th in the NHL with a .917 SV% through those two seasons with Quick, Halak and Rinne
Looking at Lack and Ward since 2015-16 and through the end of this season, Lack is 3rd worst in the NHL with a .902 SV% and Ward is 9th worst at .907 SV% of goalies with 30+ starts. In all three of Marcoux’s years as the goalie coach in Carolina, he has had a goalie in the bottom five of SV% (goalies 15+ starts). Khudobon in 2013-14, Lack in 2015-16 and Lack again this season (tied for 5th worst with Lethonen/Kuemper). He actually solely held 5th worst before his game against the Flyers last night too, as he improved his SV% from .901 to .902 for the season.
Finally, let’s look at how the Hurricanes top goaltending prospect, Alex Nedeljkovic, looked this year. He was drafted in the second round (37th) by the Hurricanes last summer and was ranked as the third best goalie by some draft boards. Coming into this season, he was considered by many to be one of the top ten goaltending prospects.
He is described as an athletic and under-sized goalie. Looking at his scouting report on Hockey’s Future, he has an 8.0 talent score and “C” for probability of success. To say the least, when he was drafted, he was one of the most promising goaltending prospects the Hurricanes have had in the system as of late.
Care to take a guess where he stands in the AHL with goalies over 15 games played…he is second to last with a .881 SV%, beating only Joe Cannata. His play has warranted him being sent down to the ECHL, where he has only posted a .903 SV% in 12 appearances. Ironically, the two goalies for the Checkers who have likely worked the least with Marcoux have been the best statistically—McCollum and Motte.
This off-season many speculate that the Hurricanes will attempt to address their goaltending. My hope is that they don’t let Marcoux influence the next one. He certainly doesn’t appear to have helped Lack or Khudobin and early indications with Nedeljkovic aren’t great. It isn’t just isolated to Ward “making” Marcoux look bad.
Given Marcoux’s three year track record and the fact that Ward is now 33 going on 34, it is time to completely turn a page on this goaltending chapter. So, this is why I said that GMRF needs to start the offseason by relieving Marcoux of his position.
Who do you think would be a good goalie coach for the Hurricanes in 2017-18?
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