Opening Night: Over two weeks ago the NHL season started and finally the Carolina Hurricanes (1-3-2, 8th Metro) are set to have their home opening night against the New York Rangers (5-2-0, 1st Metro). I imagine that the Canes will have their hands full with this game as the Rangers have come out of the gate as one of the hottest NHL teams.
The Canes come into opening night following a long 6-game road trip that included a swing through Western Canada and finished up against the Flyers and Red Wings. The season hasn’t started ideally for the Canes, however, their 1-3-2 record for a very young team actually isn’t as horrible as it looks despite the overall outcome. The one glaring error that the Canes fans couldn’t ignore though was the amount of leads the team ultimately gave up: The Canes saw lots of changes this off-season (IE: additions of Bickell, Teuvo, Stempniak, Stalberg), as well as having tons of youth in the line-up, so there are bound to be growing pains. In fact, thirteen of their twenty-two (not including 2 goalies) players have 3 or less seasons of experience in the NHL. The two biggest concerns facing the Canes as they move forward this season are 1: Situational Awareness and 2: Goaltending/D-Zone.
Situational Awareness: This is one of those intangibles that people are often always talking about that can’t be stressed enough. What you hope in regards to these items is that the youth on this team learn from mistakes, as opposed to consistently repeating them throughout the season. This young Canes team has struggled with being able to hold leads— Three of the Canes fives losses came from the team failing to hold multi-goal leads (WPG 4-1 with 15 left, 3-0 Van, and 2-0 Phi), luckily, they avoided losing the lead to Calgary and held on for the win. So what gives with the Canes and leads?
I typically find that teams that failed to hold onto leads after hot starts by some fashion sabotage themselves and sometimes it results in completely losing the game (not talking about the 1-goal game that is back and forth, talking sustained multi-goal leads)—IE too focused on scoring and have poor transitional D because everyone “wants a goal,” they get too fancy/cocky with the puck which results in turnovers , poor penalties and lazy play in front of the net because of a sense of security from having a lead—All 4 of these factors devastated the Canes when they blew a 4-1 lead with 15 minutes remaining to Winnipeg two weeks back. Blake Wheeler’s short-handed goal less than 10 seconds after a Canes power-play goal ignited their 3rd period comeback because of an extremely poor decision and pass from Skinner—if he merely took 1-2 strides and ripped the puck low to the winger posted on the far blue-line, the puck could be deflected into the zone for a fore-check and chase scenario, or worst case, entirely missed and results in an icing. What would you rather have: A 4-1 lead with a D-zone faceoff, or a breakaway back the other way and the game at 4-2?
Then looking at the next goal, one will see the situational awareness issues again. In this instance, the puck is wrapped behind the net to the far hash-marks, McClement does a good job taking the angle and forcing the puck carrier down the boards, however, young D-man Jacob Slavin decides to step up on the puck carrier too—there is absolutely no reason to have two guys on one player in a “non-scoring area” on the PK and while trying to hold a 2-goal lead late. Trust me, I get wanting to steal the puck and dump it out when the puck carriers hands look suspect and he’s under pressure—however, when you’re up 4-2 going for a risky and out-of-position plays is how the puck winds up in the net—Not surprisingly, Winnipeg reverses the puck away from pressure and up the boards to the point, then goes D to D (technically D to F since Laine received the pass and scored) and the Canes are outmatched in front of the net 2-1, with a great shooting lane for Laine to skate into and snipe through the screen.
This entire play was able to occur because of the poor decision by Slavin to pressure the puck-carrier and then the D-system has an entire collapse—Slavin gets beat to the net by his man in the corner, McClement is stuck on the boards, Stalberg ends up not in the shooting lane because he had to over-commit to cover McClement’s point man, and finally, Faulk ends up in no-man’s land deciding whether to take shooting lane or the guy in front.
If you look at the tying goal, you will notice that situational awareness is a problem again. The tying goal is a result of poorly collapsing on the net, Staal getting caught watching the puck and exposing the backdoor passing lane, and finally the Canes getting out-hustled in front of the net despite having 4 Cane players to Winnipeg’s 2—When you have numbers down low, it is your job to get a man, tie him up and let the goalie deal with the puck—loose bodies in front of the net often times hurt you, especially in the NHL :
The GWG comes off another Skinner turnover and then error by Justin Faulk as he attempts to step up in the neutral zone against 2 transitioning and full speed Winnipeg forwards but regretfully misses the puck twice leading to a 2-1 rush and backdoor goal—Again, I get trying to make a play, however, as a D-man in an outnumbered and transitional situation, it would be much smarter to play D so it’d have been a 2-2 rush with Skinner back-checking hard. This ultimately might result in a minimal scoring chance, however, it won’t be as slam-dunk as the backdoor 2-1:
Goaltending and Defensive Zone: Most Canes fans will know that the last 2-3 years the Canes have had some serious questions in net. They have drafted some great D-men for the future, however, injuries and inconsistent goaltending has been an issue. On paper, both goalies for the Canes appear to be their Achilles heel again. Statistically, Ward and Lack who have split the duties so far have significantly low numbers : Ward (.848%) ranks 58th and Lack is 53rd (.857 %) in the league for save percentage. Both have let in 12 goals and sit with a GAA right around 4, placing them at 54th and 51st for GAA respectively.
Despite the numbers being extremely low, I am not too concerned yet through this small of a sample. Most of the goals that I see Lack and Ward letting in are coming off of relatively high-scoring chances from the fore-mentioned turnovers and situational awareness issues. Given the amount of potential talent on the Canes blue-line, I expect the defensive zone, as well as goaltending to exponentially get better as the season continues on. A lot of the Canes D core is extremely young: Hannifin, Pesce, Nakladal and Slavin (Dahlbeck has 2)—all four of these guys have 1 or less seasons of NHL experience. In addition, Faulk (5), and Murphy (4) are young as well despite having more NHL experience, leaving only one true “Veteran” on the blue-line with Hainsey.
So while the goaltending hasn’t been great, I believe it is more in relation to a young D core finding their identity, building confidence and then getting the chemistry to work together. I’m not saying that neither Ward nor Lack could play better, merely that I do not think the numbers represent them playing poorly.
What to expect versus the Rangers: The Canes will have to play significantly smarter hockey than they have in the first 6 games if they want to win. The Rangers early in the season have one of the most efficient and potent offenses which will challenge the young Canes D-unit. Most of the goals that I have seen the Canes allow have come from high scoring areas—this should be concerning as they play a team that is tied for first with the Oilers for goals per game at 3.86 and also 6th in shots per game with 31.3. Given the amount of scorers that the Rangers offense holds, I think the Canes will find it tough to find favorable matchups consistently outside of their top D pairing.
The offense isn’t the only other issue playing NYR, they have a strong D-zone and obviously one of the league’s top goaltenders too. The Rangers are tied for 5th in only allowing 25.9 shots per game, as well as boasting the 10th best PK at 85%. For the Canes, this means that their offense will have to play smart, efficient and be opportunistic as they rank 14th for goals scored per game. The Canes have one of the best PP units in the NHL early in the season at 8th and converting on 25% of their chances. Given that the Rangers are typically a very disciplined team, the Canes have to find a way to draw penalties (3rd least penalized in NHL) and will need to get one of the chances in the net too.
There have been some struggles defensively and goaltending wise for the Canes but surprisingly their PK unit has performed strongly— they are 5th in the NHL and kill 90.9% of power plays. Despite this, if the Canes have to take penalties to prevent scoring changes throughout the game, the Rangers PP will challenge the Canes PK and could become a problem. The Rangers are very good at puck movement and getting teams confused on assignments—given the Canes youth, this could be dangerous.
One of the questions for this game is Skinner, as he missed the last game with a mid-body injury. He is listed as questionable. Despite the question mark on Skinner, the Canes have three solid forward lines that should be able to use their speed to create some opportunities against the Rangers. The Canes will have to use their points effectively, as they have created some strong opportunities early in the season for them.
Carolina Hurricanes Blogger • 
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