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Proteau's 2016-17 NHL previews: Metropolitan Division

September 15, 2016, 10:42 PM ET [9 Comments]
Adam Proteau
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Here’s our final divisional preview or the 2016-17 NHL regular season: the Metropolitan Division. (The Western Conference previews are here and herehere, and the Atlantic preview is here.)

Judging by its league-best 95.88 standings points average, the Metro is an extremely competitive place. All eight of its teams finished with more home wins than home regulation time losses last year – something no other division could claim – and there’s no reason to suspect the ride will get any easier this season.

Washington Capitals

Key off-season additions: Center Lars Eller; winger Brett Connolly

Key off-season deletions: Centers Mike Richards and Michael Latta; winger Jason Chimera; defenseman Mike Weber

Good Team? Safe to say, yes. The Caps were the NHL’s best regular-season team, yet once again failed to make it out of the second round of the playoffs. Making matters more painful: they were eliminated by Sidney Crosby’s Penguins. So to say owner Ted Leonsis is aching for a winner is an understatement.

However, he and GM Brian MacLellan aren’t frustrated enough to make many alterations to the roster – only veterans Richards, Chimera, Latta and Weber were cut loose, replaced by a nice addition in Eller and a low-risk gamble in Connolly – and it will be up to the same group again this spring to shake off any stigma this core can’t take the next step and win when games matter most. But you’d have to have a very narrow definition of the word “good” to deny Washington isn’t good.

Probably great team? The potential certainly is there for them to put it all together and claim the first Stanley Cup in team history, but this is something we’ve all been saying for quite some time and yet the Capitals have always found themselves lacking in one area or another. They are the envy of many teams because of their overall depth, speed and skill, but Washington failed in the most recent post-season because their secondary scoring abandoned them and their defense corps couldn’t contain Pittsburgh’s deep group of forwards.

Veteran blueliner Brooks Orpik’s suspension didn’t help matters in the latter regard, but what’s changed to make anyone think the same thing wouldn’t happen this year? This isn’t a plea to deal away every player of note on the roster and start again. But it’s a fair question to ask how long a team should hang onto a core that continues to fail to get it done.

Reason for concern it could all go sideways? Not at all. Barry Trotz and goalie coach Mitch Korn have proven to be excellent hires for the Capitals, and superstars Alex Ovechkin and Braden Holtby are in their prime. They were the lone group in the league to have fewer than 10 regulation-time losses at home last season, and that dominance will continue.

But like all teams in their possession, the Caps know none of it will matter if they go out meekly again. Now, if you consider a first-round exit “sideways”, that’s another story. Otherwise, there’s nothing to suggest a precipitous drop through the standings is coming.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Key off-season additions: none

Key off-season deletions: Winger Beau Bennett; defenseman Ben Lovejoy

Good Team? If you’re the defending champions, you’re a good team. When I last wrote about the Pens in March, they were dangerously close to falling out of the playoff picture, something that still staggers the mind when you consider how much talent is on the roster. But – and this is why all NHL GMs can convince themselves they’re not far off from being a winner – Pittsburgh pulled out of their tailspin through great goaltending and by finding chemistry at the right time of the year.

It also never hurts to have two of the top five players on the planet hanging around to take the pressure off everyone else.

Probably great team? Great in the sense we could see a back-to-back championship run from the Penguins? The odds definitely are against that coming to pass, and I still think their blueline leaves much to be desired. (Losing veteran Ben Lovejoy doesn’t help in that area.) But hey, I wasn’t thinking they’d look as good as they did in the post-season, and if goalie Matt Murray doesn’t have a drop-off in performance this year, the Pens have more than enough cream-of-the-crop talent and experience to have a solid shot at being seen as a modern-day dynasty.

Pay attention to the phrasing there: Possible? Yes. Probable? I wouldn’t go that far.

Reason for concern it could all go sideways? A little – but only if the injury bug strikes some players. Obviously, an injury to Crosby or Malkin would be catastrophic, and I’d argue the same goes for D-man Kris Letang. It’s not as if the Pens don’t have solid players beyond the top end of their payroll – Phil Kessel proved his value last year, as did Nick Bonino and Carl Hagelin – but their line-to-line chemistry seems a little more fragile than other teams, and this isn’t a franchise built to defend like the glory-era New Jersey Devils.

Remember, there was a reason Pittsburgh made a coaching change halfway through the year. If they manage to stay healthy, though, there’s no excuse for them not to be back in the post-season.

New York Rangers

Key off-season additions: Centers Mika Zibanejad, Brandon Pirri, Max Lapierre and Josh Jooris; wingers Jimmy Vesey, Nathan Gerbe and Michael Grabner; defensemen Nick Holden and Adam Clendening

Key off-season deletions: Centers Eric Staal, Derick Brassard, and Dominic Moore; wingers Viktor Stalberg; defensemen Keith Yandle and Dan Boyle

Good Team? Yes, but the Rangers aren’t a lock to finish at or very near the top of the division as they were for the four years prior to last season. They finished third in the Metro in ’15-16 – the first time since 2010-11 they haven’t finished first or second in the division – and, while they won one more game last year than they did in 2013-14, the Blueshirts won just a single playoff game this past spring in the process of getting steamrolled by the Penguins. So GM Jeff Gorton went out and made notable changes, dealing veteran Brassard to Ottawa for Zibanejad, and signing highly-touted collegiate star Vesey and a number of role players.

As a result, the Rangers are younger – a good thing in today’s NHL – but not necessarily better. But with a star goalie in Henrik Lundqvist, an impact defenseman in Ryan McDonagh and solid young forwards in Chris Kreider and J.T. Miller, they’ll be around and still playing once the regular season ends.

Probably great team? Definitely not probably great. They remain an organization with the resources to build competitive teams, but once again this summer, the Rangers made a slew of changes and will be somewhat of an unknown quantity in terms of being a true Cup frontrunner. The departures of Yandle and Boyle raise more questions about the Blueshirts’ defense than there were last season, and Lundqvist didn’t have his best post-season to save the defensive lapses of the teammates in front of him. Is it fair to expect he can be stronger than ever this time around?

Some of Gorton’s moves to get younger will help atone for the wheeling and dealing of his predecessor, and he should be credited for them. But in the short term, there could be a hiccup or two that result in more disappointment for Blueshirts supporters, and this mini-youth push probably prevents the Rangers from being a true beast in the East this year.

Reason for concern it could all go sideways? No. I think Gorton recognizes there are moves he’ll need to make for this group to turn the corner and have as bright a future as possible – trading Rick Nash and somehow dumping Dan Girardi’s contract among them – and I think he’s got the smarts to pull it off. And Alain Vigneault remains one of the game’s most respected coaches.

Sooner or later, the constant roster movement needs to slow down, but there are a lot of things to like about the franchise, and i can’t see it falling apart this season.

New York Islanders

Key off-season additions: Wingers Andrew Ladd, P-A Parenteau and Jason Chimera

Key off-season deletions: Center Frans Nielsen; wingers Kyle Okposo and Matt Martin; defenseman Marek Zidlicky

Good Team? Accurate. The Isles won two fewer games than they did in 2014-15, but winning their first playoff series since 1993 is a step forward for the franchise, and their off-season moves along with continued patience for the core could propel them into the third round and beyond this time around. Ladd’s championship pedigree can only help the youngsters, and GM Garth Snow brought in three forwards who combined for 65 goals last year.

That should take off some of the pressure from superstar John Tavares, whose game continues to grow. Not making the playoffs would be devastating, but there’s no way that should happen.

Probably great team? It likely hurts long-suffering Isles fans to hear it, but not yet. Tavares is still just 25, the defense corps is still very young (Johnny Boychuk aside), and I don’t see Jaro Halak and Thomas Greiss as the type of goalies who can outduel the stars in their division over a seven-game series.

Again, there seem to be more moves necessary in the months and years ahead to get the Islanders into the very elite. But they’re as close, if not closer to being there than they’ve been since the dynasty era.

Reason for concern it could all go sideways? Nope. Say what you will about Snow – and goodness knows, I have – but he’s absorbed all the shots and showed tenacity in building his group his way. He doesn’t have the resources of the big-money franchises, but he’s got a generational player in Tavares, a smart and skilled collection of young defenders and a solid mix of experience and exuberance up front.

The days of this team finding ways to implode are over.

Philadelphia Flyers

Key off-season additions: Center Boyd Gordon; winger Dale Weise

Key off-season deletions: Centers Sam Gagner, Ryan White and R.J. Umberger; defenseman Evgeny Medvedev

Good Team? Good enough to make the playoffs? Yes, just as they did last year, the Flyers have enough in the tank to secure one of the lower seeds in the post-season. If Philly had been half-decent in shootouts (3-8) they might even have challenged for a top-three spot in the Metro. And while it’s commendable to see GM Ron Hextall eschew major moves in this off-season, there’s no indication this group can be a serious threat come playoff time.

There’s lots of talent in the organization – much of it high-end – but their defense is still a mess, and I’m not crazy about their goaltending. This is an above-average team, but not very much above.

Probably great team? No. I love watching Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, Brayden Schenn and Shayne Gostisbehere as much as anyone, but their bottom six didn’t give them much help last year. Weise and Gordon were brought in to address that deficiency, but it all comes back to that defense corps. And no great team is as thin on D as the Flyers are.

Addressing it – and looking to the long-term future of the team in goal – should be Hextall’s prime directive.

Reason for concern it could all go sideways? Not really, no. Hextall’s patience is the right thing for the future of the team, and I suspect most Flyers fans understand why there’s no immediate solution to the team’s issues. Buying out Umberger and not re-signing Gagner will help their salary cap picture, but Philly is another team I believe has some deals to make and lumps to take before they ascend to the next competitive level.

That said, they’ve got so much talent around as it is, you can’t see how it can crumble.

Carolina Hurricanes

Key off-season additions: Wingers Bryan Bickell, Teuvo Teravainen, Lee Stempniak and Viktor Stalberg; defenseman Matt Tennyson

Key off-season deletions: Wingers Nathan Gerbe and Chris Terry; center Riley Nash

Good Team? The jury is out. Are the Canes the team that began the year 8-12-4, or the group that made a push for a playoff spot toward the end of the season and rebuilt their record to 31-26-11 before falling off in late March and April? My hunch is they’re not as bad as they were at the start and finish, but they still have a lot of work to do to become a consistent winner.

Their offense was one of the more woeful in the league, but GM Ron Francis’ off-season moves – most notably, his trade with Chicago that brought in budding star Teravainen – should be a balm in that sense. And their defense – a longtime problem for the franchise – is starting to look like it will be feared a few years from now. But the bottom line is Carolina was as close to the bottom of the division as they were to the team ahead of them in the standings.That’s an accurate indication of how much work remains ahead.

Probably great team? No. Head coach Bill Peters has earned raves for his work with a young squad, but he’d need to be a hypnotist and human performance-enhancing substance to bump the Hurricanes into the top echelon of teams.

Carolina’s goaltending duo of Cam Ward and Eddie Lack isn’t the worst in the game, but it’s far from the best, and the growing pains ahead for the organization’s youngsters will almost certainly prevent them from shocking anyone and leapfrogging a number of Metro teams to earn a top playoff seed.

Reason for concern it could all go sideways? No. Jordan Staal isn’t a franchise center, but he’s still just 27 years old, and winger Jeff Skinner overcame serious health concerns to post a 28-goal campaign last year. Their presence – along with that of terrific blueliner Justin Faulk and rising star Noah Hanifin – should ensure the plan in Carolina continues moving forward.

New Jersey Devils

Key off-season additions: Wingers Taylor Hall, Beau Bennett and Luke Gadzic; center Vernon Fiddler; defenseman Ben Lovejoy; goaltender Anders Lindback

Key off-season deletions: Centers Patrik Elias, Tyler Kennedy and Stephen Gionta; wingers Tuomo Ruutu, Jordin Tootoo and Bobby Farnham; defensemen Adam Larsson and David Schlemko

Good Team? No, although that could change fairly quickly this year. When you make one of the more one-sided deals in recent NHL history – landing a star scorer in Hall for an above-average blueliner in Larsson – you can energize the rest of the team, and that’s what GM Ray Shero has done. Granted, the loss of Larsson makes a Devils defense corps even less impressive than it was at the end of last season, but having star goalie Cory Schneider to rely on is a nice consolation prize.

And again, having a motivated Hall on board, in a market where he won’t be under the microscope every night, should give New Jersey even more of a return on that deal. If any one move of the summer of 2016 can help a team right away, this one is it.

Probably great team? Not a great team, no. The signing of Lovejoy to a three-year deal will help cushion the blow of losing Larsson – and Schneider is a phenomenal netminder – but the Devils simply do not have enough depth of talent on their blueline to even be in the conversation as a potentially great team.

Reason for concern it could all go sideways? No. New Jersey has missed the playoffs for four consecutive seasons now, and a franchise that had become accustomed to making the playoffs every year must see this current situation as “sideways”. In many ways, there’s nowhere for the Devils to go but up, and Hall’s addition will help speed that process.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Key off-season additions: Centers Sam Gagner and Jarret Stoll; wingers Pierre-Luc Dubois and Mike Brown; defenseman Scott Harrington

Key off-season deletions: Wingers Rene Bourque, Kerby Rychel and Jared Boll; defenseman Fedor Tyutin and Justin Falk

Good Team? Few teams have had as tough a spell of misfortune and mismanagement as the Jackets: if they weren’t being savaged by injuries, they were making deals and drafting players that didn’t work out in their favor. That doesn’t mean GM Jarmo Kekalainen has left the franchise bereft of talent – certainly, players such as Brandon Saad and Boone Jenner could play on any top-shelf NHL team, and 2016 first-round pick Dubois looks to be a keeper – but the fall-off in quality is severe.

In sum, Kekalainen needs to make more moves before we expect Columbus to be in the hunt for a playoff berth.

Probably great team? Not at the moment. The Jackets have had enough difficulty just avoiding injuries and being a consistently competitive team, let alone doing something like rising to the top of the Metro. There could be a day three-to-five years from now where everything starts gelling for them, but for now, at least, Columbus has to focus on baby steps forward, not big dreams and ultimate goals.

Reason for concern it could all go sideways? Uh, the Jackets have basically been living in Sideways Land for much of their existence, and they’re helmed by always-volatile head coach John Tortorella, who can go sideways in an eye blink. That’s the bad news. The good news is their defense corps is quietly coming together nicely – with Seth Jones, David Savard and Ryan Murray all 25 or younger – and Saad and Jenner both are just 23 years old.

If Kekalainen can continue adding to that collection without adding more onerous contracts to his cap, Columbus can slowly make headway. But it’s going to take time, and it won’t be without its ugly moments.
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» Proteau's Division Predictions
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» Pre-season picks: Metropolitan Division
» Pre-season picks: Pacific Division