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If owner spends wisely, Las Vegas' NHL team could be competitive early on |
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Las Vegas’ NHL expansion franchise took another step ahead this week in naming veteran hockey executive George McPhee the team’s new GM. The former Washington Capitals GM spoke in his introductory news conference of building through the entry draft and seemed disinclined to spend big in free agency – but there’s a difference between spending big in free agency and spending big at next year’s expansion draft. And thanks to the league’s generous expansion rules, if Vegas team owner Bill Foley wants to, he can assemble an experienced team of players very familiar to fans, and start out with a team that can potentially challenge for a playoff spot sooner than later.
The NHL’s expansion draft rules will create a decent-sized pool of talent available to Foley and McPhee. It won’t have any young, elite, dynamic players, all of whom will be under contract or otherwise protected by the time Vegas can actually select an NHLer off of each roster. However, if the franchise is prepared to take some risks on the financial front, it can do significantly better than the traditional Iron Mike Sharpe role expansion teams normally assume in the early-going.
The league has mandated Foley’s first payroll be at least 60 percent of the 2016-17 salary cap ceiling of $73 million – meaning he needs to spend at least $43.8 million when they take to the ice for the 2017-18 campaign – and although all sorts of transactions and unforeseen scenarios will play out before next June’s expansion draft, hockey observers expect that many, if not all of the 30 teams will leave players with overstuffed contracts off their protected lists. So it’s not at all out of the realm of possibility that the Vegas team comes away from the draft with a number of recognizable names that have shown the capability of contributing meaningful minutes.
In fact, there’s a very solid chance Foley's organization is relatively competitive compared to expansion teams that preceded it.
For starters, look at the plethora of goalies McPhee will likely choose from: if the Avalanche don’t move Semyon Varlamov this year, they’ll be forced to pick between him or 24-year-old up-and-comer Calvin Pickard. Same goes for the netminding situation in Pittsburgh, where, barring a trade, one of cornerstone Pens star Marc-Andre Fleury and 22-year-old colleague Matt Murray will have to be exposed. Varlamov has a cap hit of $5.9 million through the 2018-19 season, and Fleury’s deal runs the same number of years with a $5.75 million average annual contract value. Any one of those four players would prevent Vegas from being a doormat. And it isn’t just those four – an experienced hand such as Detroit’s Jimmy Howard also could help them in the competitiveness department, as could either Florida goalie (Roberto Luongo or the newly-signed James Reimer) who goes unprotected.
Similarly, on the blueline, it’s likely McPhee will be able to acquire some talent above-and-beyond the stereotypical expansion draft journeyman. That’s because the draft rules will likely force the San Jose Sharks to expose veteran Paul Martin, and compel the Winnipeg Jets to leave blueliner Tyler Myers unprotected. Other big-name, big-ticket D-men that could be available include Ottawa’s Marc Methot, Columbus’ Jack Johnson, Washington’s Brooks Orpik and Minnesota’s Marco Scandella. Again, Vegas isn’t getting to choose from the cream of the crop here, but they’re also not being made to take the crap of the crop.
Finally, even at forward – the one place where talent will be stretched thinnest – Foley and McPhee should have an assortment of accomplished vets from which to pick. There’s L.A. winger and former Kings captain Dustin Brown, a 31-year-old two-time Stanley Cup-winner who could serve as a mentor to Vegas’ prospects in the early years; there’s Colin Wilson, a 26-year-old center squeezed out of Nashville’s protected picture, and someone just two years removed from a 20-goal performance; there’s a dependable bottom-six winger in Andrew Cogliano, who’s given Anaheim quietly efficient minutes since he was acquired by the Ducks in 2011; there’s Flyers winger Matt Read, who’s broken the 20-goal barrier twice in five NHL seasons. Even a player such as Rangers star Rick Nash might be a possibility for McPhee, although it’s more likely he’ll be dealt before the end of the year.
These types of players won’t come cheaply, and very few will be on the right side of their career arc, but they will be interested in winning right away, and they’ll definitely be motivated to earn what’s left on their deals rather than find themselves bought out at a discounted rate. That may not matter much on the ice if their skills have deteriorated past the point of no return, but the long-term success of the Vegas team won’t and can’t depend on them to take the franchise to championship glory. McPhee will need drafting and development to sustain a winning environment, just like every other GM in every other NHL market.
That said, the expansion rules clearly give Las Vegas a shot at battling for a playoff spot before the team celebrates its fifth anniversary. If McPhee is able to find the right mix of veterans with something to prove (and something still left in the tank), once-disappointing prospects who might thrive with increased opportunity and a change of address, and youngsters the team lands through the draft, the possibility of Vegas' team making the post-season within a couple of years isn’t nearly as laughable as history suggests.
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