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Draft Blog : U18's - Falling Down the Draft Rankings |
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While international tournaments should not and are not the be all, end all analysis of a hockey prospect, they really do help paint a broader picture about them. Things like intangibles and versatility are usually on display when junior stars are forced into new positions, new linemates and sometimes new ice and play styles. It’s difficult to say how bad performances truly change scouts opinions on players, I can think of several examples, but even then, that bad performance seemed to be more of just a last straw than an entire reason for the slip and fall in ranking. Last time I did the “Big Risers” from the U18 tournament, this time I’d like to look at those who failed to show up and how it might ultimately hurt them…and there were a few doozies.
1. Kasperi Kapanen (Finland) – The son of Sami was a sure-fire top-5 pick at this time last year. He was coming off a dominant U18 performance and a solid debut for KalPa in the SM-liiga. Following Barkov’s big breakthrough, it really looked like the Finns were getting ready for a ton of talent to start pouring in. Well…as I said, that was last year at this time. This year has been brutal for the laughably top ranked European skater. Domestically he has been disappointing to the verge of dreadful, not to mention that he finished the year playing in the Finnish Jr. B system (where at last he looked really good, not that that says much). The U18’s were really a chance to show that he was worthy of being in the top-10 of every prospect ranking and mock draft in spite of performance. I think it was THN that bemoaned Kapanen being missued during this tournament, decrying his numbers being down and not given ice-time…but did they actually watch the games or just look up his stats and make the assumption? He began on the top line (or what would become the top line) with 2015 eligible Rantanen and 2014 5th round or something guy who nobody knows Lammikko. He looked terrible that first game against Denmark despite a 6-1 drumming. He had a goal on the PP and if he wasn’t on the PP he wasn’t playing, he was disinterested. For a guy who is fast as all heck, you sure don’t see him skating hard often. One thing I noticed is that he takes a lot of “Jason Blake” wrist shots. You know the ones, where you skate into the zone with some speed and lob it at the net the second your skates hit the circle. It wasn’t effective, yet he kept at it. Personally after watching him struggle against his age group with no injury excuses, I’m baffled that people still have him in the top-10. I was willing to forgive him his poor start to the season, I might have been willing to forgive his poor middle of the season that saw his spot on the Finnish U20 team disappear, but this terrible end to his season is just icing on this turd sandwich of a year for Kapanen. Picker beware at this point as far as I’m concerned.
2. Brendan Perlini (Canada) – Another top-10 projected guy you say? Yes. I’ve been scaling back my opinion on Perlini since the first time I saw him play for a good while was when he was on his massive hot streak in December where he and Varhaeghe (Leafs) were the toast of the OHL. That raised him to the top-10 for most scouts and draft fans as in a draft where his 6’2 stands out as massive amongst a glut of forwards, his numbers matched the size. For several months now he has been, to put it mildly, garbage. His season began its tailspin nearing the playoffs and continued into them where he was practically useless. For Canada he was ok, just ok. Something I don’t think he could afford to be after his end to the OHL year. On a Canadian team starved for offense that were relying on some 2015 guys (Konecny and Barzal) to score, Perlini was basically the big fish on the team. He proved to be what I thought he might be, a James Neal impersonator without the grit. He doesn’t make plays; he waits for players to do it for him and stands still waiting for a pass for a one timer. He showed up for one game in my opinion and that was against Slovakia in the early rounds. He was flying and throwing his body around, hell he went to the net! He was deadly in the offensive zone and showed the kind of scoring touch that was so great about him during his hot streak. However one strong game doesn’t wash out what was by and large a really poor tournament for Perlini and one that aggravated the fact that he seems like a one trick pony. For me, if you’re a top-10 pick you need to do more than be a pylon with a nice slap shot who every now and then decides he’s actually able to do more than tap his stick on the ice impatiently for a pass. He’s got one of the best shots in the draft and he’s one of the best pure goal scorers…but so was Andrei Kostitsyn and oddly enough vacant expression face aside, they certainly are similar.
3. Alex Tuch (USA) – So I was really interested in seeing Tuch play, he’s the big power forward everybody wants and dreams to have…but not until pick 20 or something apparently. So I was quite curious, I noticed his numbers look good to great in the USHL and USDP, people talk about his size and strength all the time, so against the U18’s on that monster USA squad he should be fantastic right? Well…meh? I saw the good parts of Tuch’s game, he was extremely strong on the puck and he hits like a freight train (Though being 220lbs against 17 and 16 year olds probably helps), but it was scoring and versatility I was looking for, not what we already know. Away from Jack Eichel and Sonny Milano, Tuch can’t score; he doesn’t seem to have offensive instincts aside from getting near the net and giving the puck to two of the most skilled guys in the tournament. When he was shifted off their line he was basically a hard hitting third liner. Now this does raise the possibility of him being a complementary top-6 gritty player, but looking around the NHL, those kinds of players are rare and most junior tag along’s don’t play that role when they eventually make the NHL. He’s a safe bet NHLer, but are you looking for a potential third liner that early in the draft? If you’re a team like LA or Chicago or something you probably are, but these more middle of the road clubs that find themselves in the 15-30 range probably don’t. I’m very worried that he’s a product of two very talented players carrying him offensively, especially Jack Eichel who might give Connor McDavid a run for his money in 2015. Seriously though, how can you get zero points and have almost no part of the offensive play in a 7-0 game where your line scores four goals? It’s insane.
Since the U18 stuff is boring and nobody really reads it, I’m going to go into my big Mock Draft soon. It’s pretty much planned out and we’re close enough with the combine over to get this thing pumped out. So look forward to that…or not, do what you want!
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