WINNIPEG -- Jonathan Marchessault wouldn't bite when I asked about the perception that the two best teams in the Western Conference -- Winnipeg and Nashville -- had already played each other.
"It’s probably true," demurred Marchessault. "Those two teams were successful all year. They’re the ones that had the most points in the West. I’d say those two teams are the best two teams in the West."
Marc-Andre Fleury, sitting next to Marchessault on the podium, handled the hot potato with his trademark affability, "That's a good answer, right?"
I suspect the feisty Marchessault and the rest of the "Golden Misfits" may use this perceived slight as more fuel for their fire nonetheless. As if they needed more.
That said, as much respect as I have for what the Knights have achieved this year, I think this will be the end of the road for them. I picked them against the Kings. I picked them against the Sharks.
But the Jets are, by my reckoning, the top team in the West right now -- I have to take Winnipeg in six here.
You don't need me to tell you why the Jets are so scary. "Patrik Laine, second-line winger" should suffice. If that's not enough, think the most complete four lines in hockey, plus a Vezina finalist in tow.
The question here is, how can Vegas pull off the upset?
Expose Winnipeg's Forecheck
Mike Rupp described the Golden Knights as a team of "basically four second lines," which is completely inaccurate. Pierre-Edouard Bellemare would chuckle if you told him he was a top-six center; Marchessault would screw his face at the suggestion that he was anything less than a first-line winger.
No, Vegas is actually striking in how their forward lines conform to traditional slotting: By any measure except notoriety, Marchessault, William Karlsson, and Reilly Smith are one of the top lines in hockey. James Neal, David Perron, and Erik Haula can be just as good offensively, but are more likely to be exposed defensively. A resurgent Cody Eakin and big, fast Alex Tuch form the foundation of a rock-solid third line. Bellemare leads a lunch-pail group which is capable of being the team's best on any given night.
The Golden Knights have enough forward depth, four-time 20-goal scorer Tomas Tatar is currently a scratch.
What the four lines have in common, with varying degrees of finish, is their ability to play fast. Here's an example from the third line in the San Jose series:
Down three goals, three Sharks get caught deep. This exposes the belly of the neutral zone to Tuch breaking out, which Oscar Lindberg recognizes. The speedy Tuch backs off the defense, hits Eakin, and the centerman serves a perfect dish in return.
Finishing enough of these counterattacks may well be the key to Vegas advancing to the Stanley Cup Final, as Winnipeg's aggressive forecheck will backfire on occasion.
Here, Tobias Enstrom (No.39) pinches, Matt Hendricks (No. 15) covers. No problem there, a defenseman pinching, a forward covering is standard practice. The Jets do it more often than most, also not a problem.
However, a retreating Tomas Nosek does a good job protecting the puck, and inadvertently guides Enstrom into another Jet.
This hampers the speedy Enstrom's defensive recovery for a split-second. Brayden McNabb hits Deryk Engelland leading the rush. Hendricks, the forward playing defense, steps up on Engelland in the neutral zone. Engelland pops a pass to William Carrier. The Golden Knights have a momentary 2-on-1.
Nothing comes of it, full marks to Enstrom and company for sorting it out, but the point is, considering the Jets' aggressive forecheck, the Knights may have more opportunities than normal to counterattack with a Jet forward playing defense.
Tyler Myers (No. 57) floats in on the forecheck, while Laine (No. 29) supports. Speaking of a bottom-six Golden Knight playing fast, Bellemare reads the situation -- Myers and Laine have done a great job of taking the wall away -- and flips a high area pass for Tuch to fetch. Dustin Byfuglien comes over, but Tuch manages to push it ahead. It ought to be a routine recovery for Laine, but Eakin stick checks him expertly. Connor Hellebuyck has to stop a Grade-A.
Also, on occasion, this aggressive posture from The Peg will lead to an obvious mistake.
Enstrom steps up on Craig Smith -- I'm not why, besides this is how we do. Kevin Fiala and Kyle Turris race out on a two-on-one against Paul Stastny -- Byfuglien got caught deep attacking. Laine hustles back to even things up, while Stastny comes up with a huge shot block.
But that's an attacking situation which Nashville -- or Vegas -- will take day and night.
Simply put, it's always a favorable situation for an attacking forward to have a one-on-one against a forward playing defense.
Paul Maurice added, "The team that defends the best through the neutral zone and attacks simply through the neutral zone will have the best chance to win."
The Jets' aggressive forecheck will cede the neutral zone and expose their forwards from time to time. The question is, will the Knights take advantage?
Break the Cycle
That said, while the Jets' forecheck takes more chances than most, it's more effective than most -- they wouldn't be in the Western Conference Final otherwise.
This is how the Winnipeg forecheck works more often than not:
Not once, but twice, does Dmitry Kulikov (No. 5) keep the play alive for Jets forwards to keep cycling. By the way, here's a textbook example of a defenseman pinching, forward covering (Brandon Tanev, No. 13) rotation.
No Grade-A chance results from this cycle, but do this a few times in a game, and something will happen.
San Jose's ability to cycle -- especially the line of Tomas Hertl-Logan Couture-Mikkel Boedker -- gave Vegas fits. By himself, Hertl accounted for three goals and seven minor penalties drawn.
"I thought against San Jose, when they played really well, they cycled the puck down low against us," mused Gerard Gallant. "We had a tough time with some of their speed. And when they got pucks back to the point, they got people to the net. You gotta break up that cycle."
Make no mistake, Winnipeg is an outstanding team on the cycle with their size, speed, skill, and aggressiveness. Look how they put Vegas through the blender here:
Enstrom pinches masterfully, Byfuglien holds the line with the best of them, Laine and Wheeler's reach/speed/skill combination are on ample display -- icing is about all Brendan Leipsic can manage here.
So how do you break the cycle?
First, to borrow from Gallant, you don't let it even start.
"LA didn't get [to the front] enough -- not that they didn't try -- but we had possession of the puck and moved the puck in the zone pretty good."
Easier said than done against the Jets. Regardless, the Knights are focused on preventive measures.
"Defensively, we have to get back for pucks quick. The quicker we can get back for pucks, it gives us a few seconds of time to try and break it out, try to get it to our forwards and get them going," noted Engelland.
Bellemare added, in terms of breaking out, "Your first play has to be a strong play.
"Any soft plays against a hard forecheck will put the next guy in trouble.
"[The six-man breakout] is more important than ever against a team that forechecks really hard. The D, your goalie, is stopping the puck. The D are going quick, the center talks to the D, and so on."
Bellemare also stressed the centerman's role in helping out with a snarling forecheck, "Your D and centers have to be coming together quite a lot. Make sure that when the D goes [back to retrieve the puck], he's got his back facing the play, he knows what he has to do.
"That our job as centers to support. The centerman has to talk. We have to become a safety valve in case there is a breakdown. We have to be low."
The idea is once the Winnipeg cycle starts, it's going to be a lot of hanging on.
"We got to take time and space away, play physical when we can, but not run out of position to try and get a big hit," said Engelland. "We’ve got to collapse and try to help each other out when they get into that cycle."
So while Maurice emphasized the neutral zone, I'm going to be looking a lot at how the Golden Knights react to the Jets' forecheck -- will they be able to break out cleanly? Will they be able to take advantage of mismatches?
I'm also curious as to how the Knights rearguards handle the Jets down low. By my estimation, this might be the Pacific Division winner's great disadvantage in this series.
Of course, it all goes hand in hand: If Vegas can break out cleanly, the neutral zone can be their playground. If Winnipeg can pin them down, the neutral zone might look like a distant island to the Golden Knights.
Theodore-Engelland Have to Step Up
Brayden McNabb-Nate Schmidt have been solid as the Knights' shutdown pairing. For example, according to Natural Stat Trick, these are Schmidt's combined post-season 5v5 numbers against Anze Kopitar and Joe Pavelski, the number-one centermen of their respective teams:
These figures provide a baseline for why I'm highlighting Theodore-Engelland's work in this series.
As Gallant's presumptive second-pairing, Theodore-Engelland will probably see a lot of Nikolaj Ehlers-Stastny-Laine. And frankly, San Jose's second line gave them trouble.
Going beyond Hertl's counting numbers, in 44:37 5v5, the combative Czech forward put up a 67.0 High-Danger Corsi For % on Engelland (14-7). I'm not picking on Engelland -- just using his numbers to illustrate. In fact, it was Theodore who was clearly beat by Hertl on at least one goal in front.
Assuming McNabb-Schmidt can handle Kyle Connor-Mark Scheifele-Wheeler -- a big if -- Luca Sbisa-Colin Miller promise to be an excellent third pairing, a possible advantage for Vegas, actually. That makes it incumbent on Theodore-Engelland to at least hold serve against Winnipeg's second line in name only.
Fleury, Fleury, Fleury
It's hard to say if Fleury can keep up his Conn Smythe-leading performance -- the law of averages suggest his .951 Save % must drop. But it wouldn't be unprecedented for him to keep going-- J.S. Giguere, for example, held a .960 through three rounds in 2003. Obviously, the Golden Knights are in beautiful shape if Flower can keep picking 'em.
However, not all is lost for Vegas if Fleury slows down.
Their 5v5 shooting % so far this post-season is 7.6, down from their regular season 8.38. That doesn't sound like a lot, but points to a couple forwards who can stand to light the lamp more -- Reilly Smith has just one goal in the playoffs, while David Perron has been shut out so far. Those guys heat up and that's another wave for the Knights to ride to the Stanley Cup Final.
As for the task of beating Hellebuyck, Jesse Granger of the Las Vegas Sun notes, "If Hellebuyck has a weakness it is low shots, particularly between his legs ."
Remember when Bellemare-Smith was Gallant's top penalty-killing duo?
It was the Jets' power play which ultimately dissolved that partnership. On December 1st, Winnipeg torched Vegas for three power play goals en route to a 7-4 victory. During their next 4v5 PK against Anaheim, Bellemare-Nosek and Smith-Karlsson made their debuts, and they've remained the go-to PK pairs since.
Featuring Byfuglien up top and Laine anywhere along the left wing -- they shoot more than anybody else on their man advantage -- The Peg's fifth-ranked power play presents a formidable challenge.
Of course, a power play is as dangerous as each part. After Byfuglien and Laine, you've got Scheifele, Wheeler, and Stastny.
"Five really good players on the first unit, who make a lot of plays," said Nate Schmidt. "A lot of different guys who can shoot the puck, that's what makes a power play dangerous."
But focusing on Byfuglien: He likes to shoot from the middle as much as possible. From Hockey Viz, who you absolutely should support on Patreon, we can compare Byfuglien and his 5v4 shot locations to VGK's resident gunner, Colin Miller:
Big Buff is perhaps the biggest cog in the Jets' engine on the man advantage. So how do you take the middle away from him?
"Gotta have a big set of stones," laughed Nate Schmidt, on running in front of the cannon.
"You try to cut the ice in half. Try to make sure you keep them to one side," added Schmidt.
But if the inevitable happens -- you're down a man, so there's only so much you can do -- Luca Sbisa suggests not chasing the block too hard.
"A guy who shoots from dead-center ice, you just gotta try to clear the front of the net. Give the goalie a chance.
"If you just stack up people in front of it, you might get a lucky floater that goes through. Our goalie has no chance to react. You have to give the goalie somewhat of a view of the puck."
But before we even get to that point, the Golden Knights' PK pressure will have something to say about Byfuglien and Laine and company.
"The one thing is not fully letting them get set up," said Schmidt, before acknowledging, "Easier said than done."
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