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Lightning's Cup Path Hinges on Discipline and Slowing Pace

May 11, 2018, 11:19 AM ET [19 Comments]
Sam Hitchcock
Tampa Bay Lightning Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
The Lightning are a fast team, but a sensible strategy against the Capitals will be to slow the game down. Control the pace and stay out of the penalty box. The Lightning have a malleable roster, one that can adjust and thrive against different styles and speeds. Heck, they even do well when their best scorers are struggling. Tampa Bay’s penchant for survival under any conditions has an element of death-and-taxes sustainability.

The Lightning will persevere if they do not get ambushed by the rush. When it comes to transition defense, Tampa Bay needs bodies not only present, but engaged. On the game-winner in Game 5 between the Capitals and Penguins, Alexander Ovechkin’s pass found Jakub Vrana because Kris Letang was in position, but lost track of Vrana, and the young winger gained the inside track to the puck.

If the Lightning control the pace, the cycle will act as a slow bloodletting, leaving the Capitals exhausted and gimpy exiting the zone, and sapping the speed and dynamism of the Capitals’ rush. The Capitals exploited the Penguins’ defensemen when they pinched, so the engagement of the Lightning’s defensive group will be something to watch for.

The Capitals’ best defensive pairing is Dmitry Orlov and Matt Niskanen. In 5v5 situations when the game is close, Orlov and Niskanen have a Corsi of 53.28, and that drops to 50.96 when neither is on the ice. Orlov is fleet-of-foot and a gifted puck-handler; he can crank shots when offered the opportunity. In his own zone, Orlov is propulsive, effective at willing the puck out of the zone through passing or his own mobility.

Niskanen doesn’t have quite the same mobility as his defensive partner, but his understanding of angles at retrieving the puck and disrupting opposing puck-carriers makes him impactful. He also has good vision in terms of passing and moving around the offensive zone to open up a lane for a shot. It is worth noting that when Orlov is off the ice and only Niskanen is out there, the Capitals’ Corsi plummets. When Niskanen is off the ice and Orlov is out there, the Capitals’ possession metrics soar. Orlov, not Niskanen is tilting the ice. Ryan Callahan, Cedric Paquette, and Chris Kunitz should take note. Inflicting pain on Orlov, and making his retrievals taxing, would be valuable work for the fourth line.

If the Capitals are smart, they will stash Orlov and Niskanen on the Brayden Point line. Point, Tyler Johnson, and Ondrej Palat were radiant in the Bruins’ series, besting the Patrice Bergeron trio and consistently generating offense at even strength. Ultimately, Point, Johnson, and Palat were too fast and too proficient at winning puck-battles for the Bruins to have any answer. In ten playoff games, the Lightning’s putative second line has a +4 5v5 Goals for differential and a +12 Scoring Chances differential. Good, but remove the Game 1 outlier against Boston, and those numbers rise much higher.

What is equally striking is that Nikita Kucherov’s and Yanni Gourde’s lines have comparable numbers. The Kucherov line has 4 Goals for and 1 Goal Against with 42 Scoring Chances for versus 35 Scoring Chances Against. The Gourde line has 4 Goals For and 2 Goals Against with 36 Scoring Chances for and 26 Scoring Chances Against. Those are frighteningly close considering how much firepower is on the Kucherov-Steven Stamkos-J.T. Miller line. The Point line has 64 Scoring Chances for at 5v5. The Kucherov line has escaped harsher criticism due to its power-play tallies and the team’s success. But it needs to be influential against Washington at even strength.

Stamkos is likely playing hurt, but he has had a dreadful playoffs thus far. He is incapable of carrying the puck, an unreliable playmaker, and he hasn’t shot enough. When he has taken shots, they haven’t been as threatening as his redoubtable reputation would suggest. In his current form, he is a glorified energy player. And sometimes he doesn’t even do that job well. It can be frustrating to watch Kucherov and Miller make good faith rushes and forechecking attempts, but then Stamkos fails to do his job and the possible scoring chance dissipates.

From watching the Western Conference bracket very closely, Winnipeg and Las Vegas appear to be far stronger potential opponents than Washington. The Capitals survived against Pittsburgh, but their warts were on display. Capitals defenseman Michal Kempny is playing with John Carlson, which means he will be facing either the Kucherov or Point line. Every time the Lightning have the puck, they should challenge Kempny. He can be beaten one-on-one and is prone to turnovers under pressure. When Carlson plays without Kempny, his Corsi goes up by 10 percent.

Same goes for Brooks Orpik. He is another Capitals defenseman the Lightning should be ruthlessly picking on. Orpik makes bad reads under pressure. He is slow in his retrievals. He is not mobile. The Lightning can feast on these pairings, but they need to be careful in their puck movement and decision-making. The Capitals delight in intercepting passes and gutting opponents with their counterattack. The Lightning can win this series without attempting reckless passes, and if they want to cross the puck to the weak side, they would be wise to shoot far pad and let the off-the-puck teammate crash the net on the rebound.

After coming off a praiseworthy effort against the Bruins, Tampa Bay has had time to rest and recover. This series will be won by speed, and since the Lightning have had several days off, they can provide maximum effort. If the Lightning can suffocate the Capitals’ rush and force them to dump-and-chase, avoid high-risk passes that would be catnip for counterattacks, and stay out of the penalty box, they should coast to victory.

Lightning in five
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