1) The Flyers' Clean Out Day (locker cleanout, exit interviews, media availability) is on Wednesday. It is an all-day process,which includes general manager Ron Hextall reporting which players will require off-season surgery and which players will represent their national teams at the IIHF World Championships.
2) Tentatively, there will be a season wrapup edition of the Broadcasters' Roundtable podcast on
Flyers Radio 24/7 recorded on Wednesday morning. Tim Saunders, as always, will moderate in conjunction with Jim Jackson, Steve Coates and me.
3) The Flyers have assigned left wing Oskar Lindblom and defenseman Travis Sanheim to the Lehigh Valley Phantoms. These are two huge additions for the Phantoms, who are currently tied 1-1 in their best-of-five playoff series with the Providence Bruins after earning a split in Providence. The remainder of the series will be at the PPL Center in Allentown, with Game 3 on Friday night, Game 4 on Saturday and, if necessary, Game 5 on Monday. Fellow NHL rookies Sanheim and Lindblom each dressed in the first four games of the Flyers' playoff series against Pittsburgh, before being scratched in the final two games.
4) Over the course of the offseason following exit day and the Phantoms playoff run (which will become a primary focus in upcoming blogs), there will be blogs looking at individual players as well as head coach Dave Hakstol. On the Flyers' official website today, there will be an article that highlights things that went right and things that went wrong this season.
The article is mostly from a macro focus perspective. For example, the team's road record significantly improving was a positive but the home record dipping in both the regular season and playoffs being a negative. Likewise, another positive was the team's bump in five-on-five play during the regular season but a negative was continued struggles on the penalty kill.
5) Flyers general manager Ron Hextall is fond of prefacing responses to questions by saying, "You have to be really careful about..." (fill-in-the-blank regarding jumping to hasty conclusions about something, whether it is prospect ETA timetables for the NHL, the trade or free agent markets, the NHL Draft, reacting to winning or losing streaks, reading too much into certain stats, etc.). I suspect there will several such responses on Wednesday, and statements along the lines of taking time to evaluate the season just past and personnel moving forward.
When asked about whether the season was a success, I suspect that the answer will be a qualified yes. Hextall said before the season that he believed the team was good enough to make the playoffs, while also saying there was still work to be done to be on par with the elites. That played out from October to April.
I don't think Hextall plans to accelerate the long-term plan to build from within. That does not necessarily mean there won't be a free agent addition this summer or a trade on Draft weekend if something presents that he'd agree to do, but I do not expect the roster to look radically different come October with any superstar additions (i.e., John Tavares) but they might pursue a scoring winger such as James van Riemsdyk. We shall see if they can land one in free agency. Never say never.
Even so, I strongly suspect the same approach will stay in place. The now-open cap space will mostly be earmarked toward eventual long-term contracts for the top players who will be finishing up their entry-level deals in the next couple seasons.
One area where you can bank on Hextall being unequivocal in his response come Wednesday is the safety of Dave Hakstol's post as head coach. There's no change coming in that spot in the near future, and Hakstol's public popularity or lack thereof will not enter into the general manager's thinking.
Hextall, who hand-picked Hakstol to make the jump from NCAA to NHL hockey, doubled down on his commitment to Hakstol during the team's 10-game winless streak. The fact that the team went on to finish with 98 points and took the Penguins to six games in the playoffs will be reiterated in saying that more right buttons than wrong were pushed. On a related note, I suspect that all assistant coaches, PK coach Ian Laperrierre included, are more likely than not to be retained.
6) Another question that Hextall will no doubt be asked on Wednesday is about Wayne Simmonds' future with the team, with him coming off a down season (likely mostly due to injury), turning 30 years old this summer and entering the final season of the six-year contract he signed in 2013. The deal ended up being a big bargain for the Flyers relative to the two 30-plus goal seasons (four straight with 28-plus) and prominent locker room presence he has brought.
Will Simmonds be traded this offseason? Will he be signed to an extension to pre-empt unrestricted free agency? I don't know how it will play out, nor do I suspect that Hextall will say much beyond expressing his admiration for Simmonds and saying that he is a highly respected player but otherwise being noncommittal. Following is an attempt to put on "my think-like-Hexy cap" and surmise how things may play out in the months to come, barring an over-the-top trade offer.
While a trade is possible, the gut feeling here is that Simmonds is not traded this summer unless another team clearly overpays. Knowing how measured Hextall is, however, Simmonds' contract may also not be extended right away.
Instead, the Flyers and agent Eustace King may ultimately go into next season with the matter still unresolved. If Simmonds shows he's healthy and bounces back to his accustomed game of providing power play scoring, strong forechecking and physical play, he'll get his extension.
If you have not already read Jay Greenberg's excellent state-of-the-Flyers blog in the wake of the loss to Pittsburgh, I strongly suggest doing so. Jay opines that trading Simmonds for young players and/or draft pick assets will not get the Flyers back to Cup contender status any sooner than keeping him as a veteran presence on the roster while continuing to try to build depth from within. The caveat to that is an offer along the lines of the Brayden Schenn trade, which yielded a pair of first-round picks, might alter the thinking.
Hextall simultaneously does not believe in the "just play the kids big minutes no matter what" development philosophy (unless the player is ultra-advanced such as Ivan Provorov). He's likely to give another endorsement of Hakstol's approach that tends to give more leeway to veteran role players who are not part of the long-term plan but are called upon to play the harder minutes. The duality of being focused on development while also being very deliberate in NHL promotions and then NHL ice time is something that perhaps confuses (and clearly frustrates) vocal portions of the fan base, but is something that Hextall and Hakstol appear to view as part and parcel of the same approach.
There is risk involved. The risk is of players such as Claude Giroux, Simmonds, and Jakub Voracek being on the downside of their careers -- and Sean Couturier late into his prime -- by the time a new core group has fully emerged another season or two down the line. Jay suggests that most of these players should still be reasonably effective by that point, and that roles will resized accordingly in seasons to come. I believe that to be the ongoing plan, too.
Perhaps Hextall will quietly decide to explore offers. Perhaps he tries to compromise with King on a new deal. The GM keeps everything very close to the vest, so anything is possible. What I do know for certain is that this is a very important offseason for the Flyers and Hextall is well aware of that. The GM's tendency in such situations is to become even more deliberate and even less reactive.
The fact that Simmonds most likely will still be in high enough demand to draw multiple offers -- but the offers may fall short of no-brainer territory to take the deal -- are a set of conditions that may persuade Hextall to stay patient into next season even as segments of the fan base vocally feel that now is the time to pull the trigger.
I can't read Ron Hextall's mind. I can just go by what has been pretty consistent adherence to the mantras of patience and prudence that he puts forth. The summer outcome that would be the MOST in line with these beliefs would be to neither rush to trade Simmonds "while he can still get something" nor to extend his contract ahead of making sure he is physically sound and this year was an aberration and not the start of actual decline.
Yes, I suspect many will find that frustrating to hear. Again, the GM may actually see this one quite differently and it could play out that way accordingly.
7) Hextall will also doubtlessly be asked about impending unrestricted free agents Brandon Manning, Valtteri Filppula and Matt Read, generically whether there are any buyouts being considered (with the specific but not directly named candidates being Jori Lehterä, Dale Weise and Michal Neuvirth), whether Petr Mrazek will get a qualifying offer or be turned loose as an unrestricted free agent and possibly whether he feels Morgan Frost and/or Carter Hart are ready to challenge for an NHL job next season.
I feel pretty comfortable in predicting that the still-not-19-year-old Frost (who is having a decent but not spectacular playoff run in the OHL after a spectacular regular season, needs to add muscle to his frame and is likely to play in the WJC next year if he remains in junior hockey) is a longshot to play in the NHL before the 2019-20 season. Ditto Hart, because very few goalies can bypass the intermediate step of the American Hockey League after junior or Euro league hockey.
A few weeks ago, Manning hinted at not expecting to be back with the Flyers next year. He did not say so directly, of course, but said he was "playing for a contract." When players say that, it is usually the practical equivalent of "my agent talked to the GM and was told there won't be extension offered, so I will be on the market this summer and talk to other teams." Otherwise, the usual response is, "We'll see what happens, but I'd certainly like to stay here if we can work something out."
Read's situation is pretty clear cut. He's no longer in the plans here. He hopes to land at least a one-year NHL offer, and knows it will be at a very steep paycut from the deal he signed with the Flyers as a two-time 20-plus goal scorer who moved all around the top three lines. Now he's strictly used as a fourth liner and defensive forward at age 31. While he was a professional about spending much of this season in the AHL and he provided some good PK and checking work upon his late-season recall, it seems very likely that the die is cast for his seven seasons in Philly to be over.
Of the two, I'm virtually certain that Read won't be back and less certain but pretty strongly suspect that Manning will move on.
I truly like both Manning and Read as people; both are quality guys (and I'll always be personally grateful to Matt for his kind treatment of my son when Benjamin was a scared two-year-old, crying in the Flyers' locker room -- which is something that a dad never forgets). Read has been a good player for the Flyers, especially in the earlier years of his stay. Always in tip-top physical condition. Always a two-way player. Able to adapt to various roles (he played both wings with equal comfort and, in earlier years, even played center from time to time). Unfortunately, his offensive production did not keep up with his cap hit in the years following the deal. At the time, it made sense for both sides.
With Manning, I saw an undrafted player work his tail off from his first NHL camp and a serious injury that cost him much of his rookie pro year through year after year of working his way up from the AHL, to the margins of the NHL roster and then to find a role that made him a starter. I heard and saw firsthand how respected "Man Dog" was among teammates first with the Phantoms and then with the Flyers.
Even as I personally believed -- and I still do -- that his ideal NHL role should be that of a seventh defenseman who could fill in for stretches or periodically be inserted for certain matchups while playing about 15 minutes, I always greatly respected his mental and physical toughness. He's someone who never stopped working to improve his game and will come back that much harder after a rough shift or a bad game. He has his limitations as a player but he competes like hell and has played in 200-plus NHL games, with more to come, before his 28th birthday because he's worked and worked some more to get there.
Did I prefer, as Hakstol came to, playing Manning as an everyday starter when healthy while first Sanheim and then Robert Hägg sat out for long stretches? No, I did not. I felt the combinations needed to be adjusted and did not think the tandem of Manning and Radko Gudas was effective enough to a long-running fixture as the third pair. But I also never thought fans should take it out on Manning. He's worthy of respect, even if there's someone else you'd prefer in the lineup.
Although I thought Gudas had a decent series against Pittsburgh until a near-fatal turnover late in Game 5 and then two turnovers in Game 6 that changed the complexion of the game, I actually thought Gudas was often the shakier half of the third pair down the stretch. Manning wasn't all that effective, either. The real issue with that third pair being together was that its three strengths -- both are physically strong, both have heavy shots (with Manning's by far being the more accurate) and it was a left-right shooting duo -- did not make up for their lack of ability to balance off each other. Both halves lacked foot speed, puck-moving prowess except for completing short-range passes. Both were vulnerable to getting beaten off the rush and both had trouble getting over to cover the dangerous man if at all caught out of position.
Manning played 64 regular season games and all six playoff games. He was a coach's decision scratch seven times, mostly early in the season, and missed the games of Dec. 6 to 28 due to injury. He averaged nearly 18 minutes of ice time (17:57), which is roughly that of a No. 4 or No. 5 that is interchangeable with another D-man across the second and third pairings depending on the night and matchup.
The real problem is that Manning really isn't an ideal No. 5 (and certainly not a No. 4). He's serviceable as a No. 6 if the top five is stacked -- the current Flyers are not -- and he has the right partner to offset some of his limitations. In turn, he could offset some lack of poise or physical play from a highly mobile puck-moving partner. However, as a number seven who gets into about 40 to 45 games and his matchups are spotted, a team could much, much worse than Manning. He'll always be ready when called upon, and he'll give his teammates his all even on bad nights. That's the mark of a pro.
With Filppula, my sense is that the Flyers will at least start out by looking elsewhere this summer. He certainly isn't a "July 1 player" (i.e., in top-end demand) at age 34. However, that also depends on the cost of the open-market alternatives and/or whether the Flyers believe a) an internal candidate (such as Scott Laughton, Jordan Weal if returned to his original center position, an already-pro prospect such as Mikhail Vorobyev or if someone else steps up) can handle the responsibilities given to Filppula this past season, or b) there is an NHL-ready alternative on the Phantoms to play a top-nine role.
Filppula was called upon to play a whole lot of the "hard minutes" this past season and right on through the playoffs. There was clear decline in his ability to handle top-end matchups, at least when cast as a shutdown center or as a second line pivot. The savvy is still there -- Filppula is a very smart player -- but guile and finesse only go so far. Game 5 against Pittsburgh was a little turn-back-the-clock taste to how good Filppula was in his Detroit years when he was one of the NHL's more underrated players. He couldn't duplicate it in Game 6, and that wasn't a surprise.
Filppula's raw offensive numbers -- 11 goals, 33 points in the regular season, shorthanded goal and three points in the Pittsburgh series -- are acceptable on the surface for a current-day third-line player. However, much of that was skewed toward early in the season while Filppula was still in the second-line role as Nolan Patrick acclimated himself to the NHL and recovered from a concussion after a shortened offseason due to hip surgery. Once Filppula was placed pretty firmly in more of a shutdown role, the offensive production end largely disappeared.
With Mrazek, it would be very surprising if there's a qualifying offer. The Flyers will pay up the third-round pick they owe Detroit for Mrazek's six regular season wins and the team's playoff berth, and simply part ways. The goaltending plan for next year will be a separate blog topic.
Brian Elliott will be back for sure. It may be hard to trade Michal Neuvirth due to the constant risk of injury and inconsistency, but I also don't think there's enough confidence to go into next year with Elliott and Alex Lyon (or Anthony Stolarz) as the tandem. As such, I don't have any sense at all of how it will play out. I don't think Neuvirth gets bought out.
Weise would be a buyout candidate if he only had one year left on his contract. Since he has two years remaining -- and a buyout would thus have four seasons of cap implications -- I don't think a buyout is coming.
That leaves Lehterä as a buyout candidate. Many fans want to see both Filppula and Lehterä gone and replaced with speed upgrades (which, in Lehterä's case in particular, is rather easy to do, because he is among the NHL's poorest skaters despite being a savvy and physically strong player). However my gut feeling is that, while at least one of the veteran Finns will not be back, the other one will -- and it will an unpopular decision.
Since I suspect the Flyers will look for a younger and less expensive option to recast Filppula's role, I think they'd be correspondingly more inclined to ride out the final year of Lehterä's contract with him as a fourth-line center or left wing. That's just a guess. If there's one guy who gets bought out by the Flyers, it will be Lehterä. If so, it won't be for cap space so much as a desire to reshape a little more of the roster.
In other wods, I do not think the Flyers are trying to maximize cap space to go all out in an effort to land John Tavares. In the past, that probably would have been Plan A. Likewise, unless the team trades Shayne Gostisbehere --- which seems highly unlikely, unless they could somehow tie it to moving to the very top of the Draft and select Rasmus Dahlin -- I don't think the Flyers get in any bidding wars for John Carlson if he doesn't extend with Washington.
A caveat to that: Part of running any sports team, especially in a market like Philadelphia, is to recognize the insatiable desire for instant gratification. The Flyers are still in playoff bubble team stature and the young players whom the plan is to eventually form the "eventual new core" are either not fully matured as NHL player or not yet even viewed as NHL-ready. So, from a sheer marquee value standpoint, going all in on a marquee unrestricted free agent might buy some extended patience even though it probably won't buy the Stanley Cup and may, in fact, cost needed cap space when it comes time to pay the eventual nucleus.
Thus, I'll leave off with where I started: I suspect that Ron Hextall's inclination will be to remain every bit as deliberate and gradual long-term focused in his vision, even though it is sure to bring about criticism if he does not try to speed things up. It would require a significant shift in philosophy to try to go all-in for the immediate future in an effort to bump the Flyers over the 100-point mark and to increase the chances of winning a playoff round or two (but probably not three, and not the Stanley Cup) in 2018-19.
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