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Lightning-Devils: Prediction

April 11, 2018, 10:05 AM ET [34 Comments]
Sam Hitchcock
Tampa Bay Lightning Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
I think Devils goaltender Keith Kinkaid will outplay Andrei Vasilevskiy in this series. But it won’t be entirely Vasilevskiy’s fault. The Lightning have been apathetic to boxing out of late, and their defensive coverage and breakouts have been mediocre. The penalty kill is a glaring weakness, and the Lightning will surely accrue several penalties a game. There will be the dumb Braydon Coburn trip because he is too slow and commits a nauseating turnover. Or the Yanni Gourde undisciplined foul. Against a hungry Devils team, I don’t see any reason why the failure to keep the crease clean over the last 20+ games and clear obstructions of Vasilevskiy’s sightline would change in the postseason.

I think the Devils will force a lot of turnovers from Steven Stamkos when he tries to gain separation or create offense in space, resulting in problematic counterattacks. He may deposit a goal or two, but that will likely be a consequence of Nikita Kucherov and J.T. Miller playing on his line. Brayden Point will be inconsistent, and his habit of holding onto the puck an extra beat to tweak the angle on his shot will cause his scoring attempts to be blocked or stolen a little too often.

Ryan McDonagh and Anton Stralman, who from my vantage point have been wildly underwhelming as a pairing – and I haven’t been all that impressed with when they are apart either – will be gashed by Taylor Hall and Nico Hischier. The Lightning will deploy Victor Hedman to try to shut down that line, although I think coach Jon Cooper may veer toward keeping him away if he can because Hedman is an offensive catalyst.

I think the Lightning will trail at some point in this series, likely losing Game 1 or Game 3 to go down 1-0 or 2-1. Unheralded but fast and chippy, I see Devils forwards Miles Wood and Blake Coleman causing a lot of trouble for Tampa Bay’s defensemen. I see Dan Girardi and Coburn presenting significant problems for the Lightning, as the Devils forwards speed throughout their lineup continually exploits those two.

Mikhail Sergachev may be the most intriguing player in this series. He is easily the Lightning’s most talented defenseman after Hedman, and he can use his reach and stride to accelerate past opponents whether it is on the rush or from a standstill at the point. Potentially, that could open up seams for Lightning forwards in the slot and off-slot or rebound opportunities after he uncorks his piercing shot. In the worst-case scenario, Taylor Hall or a Devils compatriot pilfers the puck and leads an odd-man rush the other way. If Sergachev is an unalloyed good, I could see the series wrapping up in less than seven. His potential is that enormous. If he has a meltdown, I think the Devils could win. I’ll bet on a wash, where he matches moments of brilliance with game-altering turnovers.

Ultimately, it may play out similarly to last season’s Washington Capitals-Toronto Maple Leafs’s first-round series, when the Capitals may not have played like the better squad, but they escaped by the skin of their teeth. In the playoffs, survival (and sustained health) are all that matter. I see Kucherov and Miller scoring just enough at even-strength and on the power play to push the Lightning past a Devils team that is a little too inexperienced for the moment. While this article is an exercise in prognostication, one thing that is a certainty is that we will know by the series’ conclusion whether the Lightning indeed have an on-off switch.

Lightning in seven
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