The Penguins and Brian Dumoulin avoided arbitration yesterday by agreeing to a long term contract extension before the hearing. Dumoulin remaining with the Penguins was never really in doubt. The team clearly values his services and believes he is a big part of the defense grouping the team has.
Conor Sheary is a different case. His results with Sidney Crosby this year were tremendous. The team is still apprehensive on if this was a lightning in a bottle situation or something that is sustainable. I do not believe the team is as comfortable giving Sheary both money and term like they did Dumoulin.
Sheary is 25 years old and only has about a season and a quarter of an NHL sample size. The sample is very good, but there is apparent risk. Recently, another player in a similar age bracket and NHL sample just got a contract extension. That player is Viktor Arvidsson of the Nashville Predators. Arvidsson signed a seven year contract worth 29.75M. His cap hit is 4.25M. While Arvidsson and Sheary are not direct comparables they do share some similarities.
They both haven't had a huge NHL sample. They are both very good on the possession front. They both put up very solid offensive numbers. They both have a really solid quality of teammate. Arvidsson's most common linemates during his NHL tenure have been Ryan Johansen and Filip Forsberg. Conor Sheary has had Sidney Crosby and Patric Hornqvist.
Here is a visual representation of the comparison between these two
The only thing that is going to keep Sheary's price point down is his small sample size. The sample is very good when you start looking around the league. Sidney Crosby or not, Sheary did lead the NHL in 5v5 points per 60 which is a great achievement. The only time another skater on the Penguins had a higher points per 60 than Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin was the 2010-11 season when Chris Kunitz led the team. The catch here is that Crosby and Malkin didn't play enough minutes that year to hit the 750 minimum I used. So yeah, Sidney Crosby is obviously responsible for a lot of Sheary's production, but no other winger alongside Sidney Crosby has been that successful in a single season with their point production rate at even-strength. That shouldn't just be thrown aside as totally meaningless.
In keeping with the Arvidsson comparison I wanted to look at some of the passing data.
This information cannot be used in an arbitration case, but it can certainly be used by a general manager outside of an arbitration setting. Sheary is in the blue, Arvidsson in the red. On top of Sheary's league leading offensive production he is also fares very well in helping others on the ice.
This isn't an easy negotiation for Rutherford because all the data points to a player that more than deserves to be paid in that ~4M range. When you look around players in his age bracket are getting paid. The 24 year old Mika Zibanejad was given a long term contract worth a 5.35M annual cap hit just this morning.
Arbitration is likely to look fondly on Sheary's offensive production and if they cared to look up his possession that looks good too. He had a great 2016-17 season. Sheary's hearing will be August 4th so there is still a good amount of time before the team has to make a decision on a contract. I think a four year offer at 3.25M for each season would be a gamble worth offering Sheary before the arbitration hearing. He doesn't need to lead the league in 5v5 point production to get value out of a contract like that. In fact, at that price point third line scoring production would be reasonable. You would be getting his 25-29 years which is also decent.
The small sample deserves to be questioned, but it is so good that any regression is more than likely still going to leave you with a very productive player even in a ~3.25M price point. Let's quickly discuss Sheary's abbreviated 2015-16 season which saw Sheary only play 44 games and 389 5v5 minutes, most of which away from Crosby.
He had a CF% of 57.8% which is great. His points per 60 was a lot lower at 1.54. It isn't as concerning as it looks on the surface. His most common linemates in the 2015-16 season were Kevin Porter and Scott Wilson. I think it is a safe bet that no matter what Sheary's role is in the future on Pittsburgh that his center will be better than Kevin Porter.
If you go back further than his NHL sample you'll find a successful AHL sample as well. Sheary registered 45 points in 60 career AHL games while Arvidsson had 55 in 70 games. Similar yet again.
There are a lot of factors to consider in Conor Sheary's next contract, but most evidence points towards a guy that will be worth his next deal.
Thanks for reading!
Pittsburgh Penguins Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»