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NHL 2007 Entry Draft: Could Lars Eller be the Steal of the Draft? |
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I'm in the process of developing an article for NHL.com about the seven prospects playing in the Frölunda system in Sweden who are likely to be drafted in 2007 and 2008. Frölunda's top-level junior team won Sweden's Under-20 championship this year and features the deepest crop of draft prospects currently boasted by any team in the world.
In 2007, expect to see center Lars Eller (#3 European skater in Central Scouting's final rankings), left wing Simon Hjalmarsson (#6 European skater), center Joakim Andersson (#5 European skater), defenseman Jens Hellgren (#17 European skater) and goaltender Joel Gistedt (#1 European goaltender) selected in the top half of the draft.
For next year, winger Mikkel Bödker and defenseman Philip Larsen currently project as high-end picks, with Bödker a potential first round selection. Of course, the 2008 draft is so far away that a lot could change between now and then.
Among the 2007 draft prospects, Eller is arguably the most intriguing. The Dane has shot up the rankings to the point that he's become a fashionable "sleeper" first round candidate whom many say has the upside to someday outshine many of the top ten picks.
Over the last few weeks, I've talked to as many people as possible to get a sense of how far Eller has risen. Two scouts were kind enough to respond so far. In the upcoming weeks, I have arranged to speak with Eller's Frölunda head coach Jens Gustavsson and, hopefully, to several other NHL scouts to whom I've reached out. I've also poured over as many English and Swedish scouting reports on him that I've been able to find.
I have yet to see Eller play first-hand, so I can't offer any personal observations. Because Eller is Danish, he plays at the Division I level at the World Championships. And because he's been playing at the Swedish junior level for Frölunda, rather than Elitserien, no clips from his games are readily available.
However, veteran hockey people who know a lot more than I do have been raving about Eller. I thought I'd share their commentary and excerpts from the scouting reports.
I've divided this blog into a stats/rankings section, a scouts' commentary section and a scouting report excerpt section. The more I hear and read on Eller, the more I'm anxious to see him play.
I hope you enjoy.
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Lars Eller Vital Stats
Height: 6-0 (184 cm)
Weight: 198 (90 kg)
DOB: July 12, 1989
Position: Center (can also play wing)
Shoots: Left
Nation: Denmark
Career Stats
2004-05 Rödovre (Den)J19 28 GP, 21 G, 26 A, 47 PTS, 20 PIM
2005-06 Frölunda J18 8 GP, 2 G, 4 A, 6 PTS, 10 PIM
2005-06 Frölunda J20 36 GP, 7 G, 7 A, 14 PTS, 6 PIM, +7
2006-07 Frölunda J20 39 GP, 18 G, 37 A, 55 PTS, 58 PIM, +22
2006-07 Div 1 U20 WJC 5 GP, 2 G, 5 A, 7 PTS, 6 PIM, +6
2006-07 Div 1 U18 WJC 5 GP, 3 G, 7 A, 10 PTS, 16 PIM, +5
Note: Eller's father, Olaf Eller, is a former player and a longtime coach for, among other Troja/Ljungby.
Rankings
Central Scouting
Preliminary, #1 Denmark
Mid-term, #5 European skater
Final, #3 European skater
International Scouting Services
Novemeber 2006 to April 2007: Not in top 30 overall
May 2007 (final rankings): #18 overall
McKeen's
Feb. 2007: #18 Draft-eligible center
Feb. 2007: #47 prospect overall
Mar 2007: #37 prospect overall
Apr 2007: #16 prospect overall
Red Line Report
Oct 2006: Listed as #6 rising prospect
Feb 2007: Listed as #4 rising prospect
Mar 2007: Listed as #1 rising prospect
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Personal interviews (April, May 2007)
Eastern Conference NHL amateur scout (via e-mail):
"Eller has come on as much as any player in this draft. Last year you could see the skill level but he was undersized even for a junior player. This year he's grown and added strength. In terms of skill, he is a plus skater and shooter and an excellent playmaker. He's a kid with a lot of upside."
Independent scout (via telephone):
Would you say Eller is the best kept secret in the draft?
"No, because Eller isn't a secret anymore. He's on a lot of team's radar screen."
Do you see him going in the first round?
"I don't see why he shouldn't. There's kind of a cat-and-mouse game that I think could go on with him, where teams are going to try to feel out how long they can wait and maybe grab another player or two they like before they take him. But more and more I think someone's going to blink pretty early on him and take him."
Could it be a situation-- like Forsberg in 1991 -- where he goes in the top 10 even though he's projected by Central Scouting and others anywhere from mid-to-late first round or the second?
"Well, you never want to put that kind of expection on a kid. Top 10? That might be a little high, but not much. If some team has the [guts] to do something like that, though, this might be the year."
How would you rate his skill level?
"He has no real weaknesses to his game. Skating- top notch. Stickhandling-top notch. Passing-- top notch. Plus he's a mature, two-way player. He's filling out his frame, so size isn't really a concern any more. He isn't afraid to get hit. If there's a flaw, it's that he's sometimes a little too unselfish and passes up open shots."
I've heard some people compare him to Henrik Zetterberg when Zetterberg was a teenager. Is that a fair comparison player, in terms of raw skill level?
"That's a real high standard to meet-- that's setting the bar really high, I think. You know that Detroit was able to draft Zetterberg in the seventh round (210th overall in 1999). There were size questions about Zetterberg back then and he didn't really come into the limelight until after he was drafted. I don't think it's fair to expect Eller to do what Zetterberg did. What I will say is he has the skill level to a be a special player if he continues improving at the same rate."
So if Eller clearly has that kind of upside, why is he still not a top 10 prospect-- or even a top 30 according to some sources? In a year where there are question marks about pretty much everyone, why isn't he in the mix?
"I'd say it's two things. He's from Denmark, so even though he plays in a very good junior program in Sweden, scouts couldn't get to look at him in the (elite level) of the WJC and Under-18s. The highest competition he's faced was in the Swedish junior playoffs."
Okay, but Kyle Turris was pretty much in the same boat. And that hasn't really held him back.
"No, it hasn't. You're right. But Turris has shown he can play for [Team] Canada and he's been accepted to a proven college hockey program at Wisconsin. But there are guys who don't feel comfortable pushing the Danish kid up until they actually see him at a higher level on a regular basis. There isn't the track record to go on."
What was the second reason why he's down a little bit in the rankings from what his skill level is supposed to be?
"In some ways it helps him and in some ways maybe it hurts him a little that he's surrounded by so many skilled players [on Frölunda]. It helps him because there's been scouts at a lot of his games. But it hurts him because maybe he wouldn't be as effective when other teams focus on stopping him. There's guess-work in projecting that, because the quality of defense and goaltending below the Elite league-- and same thing for the Division I tournament -- isn't always the best.
"Next year, Denmark will be in the WJC and he should be there. He should also be a rookie in the Swedish Elites by that point. He'll already be drafted by then, but we'll get to see how far he's come along. "
What's a best-case and worst-case scenario for him at the NHL level? Could he potentially not make it at all?
Unless it's a [Sidney] Crosby or [Alexander] Ovechkin level player, anyone could fall a little short. He could get hurt. He could stop developing. He could have trouble adjusting to the next level. But I think he doesn't have any real weaknesses to hold him back. I think he'll be an NHL player and could be a very good one."
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Scouting report excerpts
HockeyMagasinet.com (by Anders Ostberg) Dec 8, 2006:
"Frölunda has been very skilled at recruiting Danish players to its junior team. ...Last year, it was time for Frölunda to bring in 1989-birthyear Danes Lars Eller and Mikkel Bödker. ... It was Mikkel who was Frölunda's number one priority for the club from Gothenburg, because he was seen as Denmark's most talented 1989-born player. ...During Eller and Bödker's first season, there was no reason to question whether Bödker was the better of the two of them. He got more ice time on Frölunda's J20 team and was certainly the more successful due to his supreme skating.
This year, there's been a change, when Lars took a huge step in his development. He is probably the player who is closest to being ready for the Elitserien club out of Frölunda's J20 players and he's dominating game after game.
Last year, Eller gave the impression that he was a weak pup, but he's matured physically and his body has grown. Certainly there's room for him to grow further, but you can easily him adding additional size.
He's fundamentally a very skilled player and has a tremendous upside. He's a good skater, fantastic stickhandler, has soft hands, is unpredictable (to defenses) and has amazing ice vision. He often gains the offensive blueline with ease and displays fine stickhandling and top-notch dekes. At the same time, he can turn on a dime and fire incredibly beautiful passes laterally or diagonally.
Eller is good both at directing a powerplay as a playmaker or playing as a finisher. He can make slick passes and has a very hard slapshot. He's actually blessed with both a sharp, accurate wrist shot and a hard slapper and is a very effective finisher when he's near the net.
Defensively, he's very reliable and consistent. Eller can be called a two-way center, although he's not quite the equal of teammate Joakim Andersson. Eller kills penalties well, works hard and is becoming an accomplished faceoff man. His greatest attribute is his ice vision. Combined with his other skills, he has sky-high potential. Often, he leaves you saying "Wow" after you watch some of the things he can do on the ice.
Eller is still working on adding muscle. He could also be more physical. ...This will help him further his development as a two-way player.
...He has a very good chance to be Denmark's best player ever and the possibilities are endless. Ultimately, he could become as good as he wants to be."
McKeen's (quoting Swedish scout):
"He's a fluid skater and nifty stick handler at times with good vision and intelligence. His physical game is a question mark, just as how he handles himself against elite competition."
EliteProspects.com (Johan Nilsson):
"Eller is very solid all around and a skilled forward. Eller has quick feet, soft hands and a good work ethic. He is a skilled playmaker, but also a decent scorer. Wors hard and is valuable in shorthanded situations. Quite [a] spectacular player with few weaknesses."
Kyle Woodlief's Red Line Report (USAToday.com) :
Oct. 2006: "Skilled Danish winger has a good sized frame to fill out and plays with a lot of jump. Has fabulous speed and moves and has scored some of the best highlight reel goals of the season."
Feb. 2007: "The Great Dane has really taken off in the second half. Filled out his frame nicely, scoring a lot and is a terrific skater."
March 2007: "Came up huge for Frölunda in Championship of Swedish Junior playoffs, then has a goal and three assists for Denmark to open the World U-18 B pool championships. Great combination of the three S's: size, skating ability and stickhandling."
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