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Meltzer's Musings: Locker Cleanout Day, Schenn, Chief, Prospects and More |
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MONDAY QUICK HITS: LOCKER CLEANOUT DAY
* The 2014-15 edition of the Philadelphia Flyers will gather together one final time on Monday to clean out their lockers at the Skate Zone in Voorhees. General manager Ron Hextall will conduct exit interviews with the players throughout the afternoon, and Flyers head coach Craig Berube will also participate. Individual players will be available to the media at various junctures during the day. Hextall is not expected to conduct his end-of-year press conference until Wednesday.
* Several weeks ago, Dave Isaac (Flyers beat writer for the Camden Courier Post) and I talked after a practice with Flyers goaltender Steve Mason about the subject of shot-blocking. Different goalies have differing views on the topic, although everyone knows that today's game places a heavy emphasis on shot blocking by the skaters in front of the goaltender.
Mason takes a utilitarian view on shot blocking. He appreciates clutch blocks as much as the next goalie -- especially when it prevents a potential goal on an open shot from inside the dots-- but he doesn't want teammates indiscriminately throwing their bodies and sticks in the path of the puck.
The goalie, who is not shy about being vocal, told his teammates this year that he wanted them to make sure that they blocked shots completely if at all possible. He did not want partial blocks (because it is unpredictable where, and to whom, the puck will bounce) or, even worse, accidental deflections on net that change the angle. Mason said that, when in doubt, he'd rather let a shot from distance get through to him and for the players in front to focus on boxing out and not unwittingly providing a screen.
Over the second half of the season, the Flyers actually did a pretty good job in this regard when Mason was in goal. The goaltender himself deserves the biggest share of credit for his .928 overall save percentage and .940 save percentage at even strength this season. However, it would not have possible without having communications in synch with the skaters on when to go for blocks and when to let the pucks get through for the goaltender.
In terms of raw numbers, the 2013-14 Flyers yielded an average 30.6 shots on goal per game and blocked an average of 14.6 attempts per game. This season, the Flyers gave up an average 30.3 shots per game and blocked an average 15.2 attempts per game.
Anecdotally, however, it at least visually seemed as if the Flyers of 2014-15 were more selective in which shots they attempted to block than last year's squad.
On a teamwide-basis, the Flyers yielded 157 goals against at 5-on-5 (ranking 21st in the league) and three goals at four-on-four during the 2013-14 season. This year, the Flyers actually ranked in top one-third of the NHL (ninth overall) for fewest 5-on-5 goals against, yielding 137.
While this was an significant area of progress for which Mason deserves major credit and the team in front of him also showed improvement, the Flyers as a team really didn't reap many benefits from cutting five-on-five goals against by 20 from a year ago.
For one thing, the Flyers' penalty killing success ratio nosedived from 84.8 percent (7th in the NHL) in 2013-14 to 77.7 percent (27th in the NHL) this season. The team also yielded six more goals at four-on-four than it did last season.
Just as important: the Flyers did not score goals as well in 2014-15 as they did (after a very slow start through 15 games) in 2013-14. This season, Philly scored a total of 215 goals while yielding 234 across all manpower situations. A year ago, the team scored 236 goals while giving up 235.
The goal-scoring drop this season was attributable to even-strength play. The Flyers power play remained quite potent. This year, however, the team scored just 138 goals at five-on-five (tied for 24th) and added four more at four-on-four, for a total of 142 goals at even strength. Last year, the Flyers scored 151 goals at five-on-five (15th in the league) plus six goals at four-on-four for a total of 157 goals at even strength; a net drop of 15 from the previous year.
* It does not sound as if the Flyers are going to rush into a decision about whether Craig Berube will be brought back next season. While this is not certain because general manager Ron Hextall always keeps his cards close to his chest -- for all anyone knows, a change could be made later this week -- there is a belief among Flyers sources and many hockey people not affiliated with the team -- that Berube did well enough with the team he was given to merit another year.
Hextall may opt to sit tight for awhile to see which head coaches come onto the job market this off-season. If a candidate such as Todd McLellan (San Jose), Dave Tippett (Arizona) or Claude Julien (Boston) becomes available, the Flyers might make a change.
However, it is unfair to Berube to leave him twisting in the wind for a long period of time and the choice of a coach -- and the system he employs -- affects roster planning in the off-season. As such, I do not expected too protracted of an "evaluation process" on whether the organization moves in a different direction behind the bench.
When all is said and done, I still think the Flyers will have a new coach for the 2015-16 season because there may be candidates out there who can build on the process that Berube started. All coaches, just like players, have their strengths and weaknesses.
I will say of Berube that I like the structural groundwork he's put down and I think a team can win with his center-lock system. However, could he have used certain personnel better and not stayed as long with certain things that weren't working? Maybe. There were times where it seemed clear he was pushing the wrong buttons but persisted in pushing them anyway.
Ultimately, though, I don't coaching is this team's biggest need. They need more speed, another scoring line and a top-end defenseman (or two) to allow everyone else to slot down into a more ideal role.
* A large segment of Flyers fans have a perception of Berube as strictly an "old-school" coach. In reality, he does recognize and respond to trends around the league (such as rolling four lines on a regular basis with players such as Pierre-Edouard Bellemare and Chris VandeVelde on the line rather than loading up mainly on toughness). He also willingly incorporates to a certain degree, although perhaps not to the level than some would like to see.
For example, in his small-group media availability prior to the recent game against the Islanders, Berube initiated a discussion about how the team tracks zone denials and said there had been progress over the course of the season both for the team (his main concern) and for certain individuals.
A followup question was asked about to what he attributes Nicklas Grossmann having the weakest even-strength shot-attempt differentials of all defensemen on the team but also the best traditional plus-minus (plus-eight) at even strength.
Berube explained that, in his view, a team still has to be able to defend. While puck possession is a big focus in today's game, there is still a need for defensive specialists. The coach said that he thinks Grossmann is player for whom analytics are not an especially accurate measure.
Specificially, the coach said that he expects Grossmann to use his size effectively in front of the net and in pinning opponents to the boards and giving teammates a chance to go retrieve the puck. The player usually did those things well, according to Berube, and that's why he remained a fixture in the lineup when healthy.
By the way, although the coach himself did not bring it up, it should also be noted that Grossmann's ice time was reduced this season from an average 19:06 in 2013-14 17:39 in 2014-15. He was deployed more as a fifth or sixth defenseman as the year progressed.
On the overall subject of analytics, Berube said that he does see certain benefit in keeping up with a variety of standard and internally-kept analytics, deadpanning, "it gives you something to look at."
Ultimately, both Hextall and Berube seem to be on the same page with a view that analytics are a piece of the puzzle in building a process for favorable long-term results but are not the puzzle itself. If Berube is not back next season, it is still likely that Hextall would opt for a coach with the same basic view.
* Have the Flyers stumbled onto something with Brayden Schenn playing wing on a line with Sean Couturier? Schenn's most productive stretches of the season -- as a left wing with Couturier and Matt Read from late October to mid-November and then with Schenn and Read switching sides late in the season -- came with Couturier's unit and not with the Claude Giroux line.
Over a nine-game stretch (Oct. 25 to Nov. 15), Schenn mostly played on the Couturier line and produced 10 points. That included five goals (two game-winners) and five assists. Schenn was moved up to the Giroux line after Michael Raffl went down with a foot injury and an attempt to have Wayne Simmonds adjust to playing his off-wing did not got as well as hoped.
Late in the season, after the Flyers lost Simmonds to a leg injury, Schenn returned to the Couturier line as the right wing. He found that he saw the ice better on that side. Schenn and Couturier both closed out the season on hot streaks. Schenn posted eight points (four goals, four assists) over the final six games. Couturier had at least one point in each of the final six games (two goals, five assists, seven points).
Many coaches nowadays prefer forward "pairings" with rotating third members of the line. Assuming that neither Couturier nor Schenn are traded this summer and regardless of who coaching next season, the team may want to consider making Couturier and Schenn a tandem as part of the lineup planning for next season. Until now, Couturier and Read had been the near-constant pairing.
It's worth a look in any case. All we've seen thus far is a pair of small sample size stretches, but the results seemed encouraging. With Schenn floundering in other spots in the lineup and having shuttled between center and left wing for much of his previous career, it is worthwhile to at least see if the chemistry he's shown on Couturier's wing can burgeon with regular use together next season.
* Flyers 2014 first-round draft pick Travis Sanheim scored a goal and an assist in a losing cause for the Calgary Hitmen in their 3-2 overtime loss to Medicine Hat on Sunday evening. The series is now tied at one game apiece. Flyers 2014 sixth-round pick Radel Fazleev assisted on Sanheim's goal in Game Two.
* Assuming they do not win the NHL Draft lottery on April 18 and draft Connor McDavid, the Flyers will pick either seventh or eighth in the first round of the 2015 NHL Draft. The selection spot of their lower first round pick, acquired from Tampa Bay in the Braydon Coburn deal, will be determined based on how far Tampa goes on the playoffs. Based on the regular season, the pick currently stands as the 26th pick but it could move up or down (30th if the Bolts win the Stanley Cup) based on how deep Tampa goes in the postseason.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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