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Alexander Semin and the Penguins

March 1, 2015, 11:20 AM ET [291 Comments]
Ryan Wilson
Pittsburgh Penguins Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
A lot of NHL GM's like to deal within their comfort level. That means keeping around players they are familiar with and perhaps acquiring those players when they are employed at their new stops.

This idea is outside of the box and not one I am necessarily against




This is a classic case of narratives vs numbers. You are either going to drum up the "He's a lazy Russian" stereo type or you will try to dig deeper and figure out the actual pros and cons of the player.

The always excellent Travis Yost wrote an in-depth piece on Alexander Semin in January. You can find that here

One of the biggest takeaways from Mr. Yost's piece was Semin's on-ice save percentage. It has taken a nose dive recently.

On-ice save percentages are swamped by random variance, and there is virtually no evidence that a forward can control the rate at which saves are made on a year-to-year basis. That is to say: it is extremely unlikely high on-ice save percentage is a skill, and low on-ice save percentage a deficit in a player’s game.


The low on-ice save percentage no doubt has played negatively in the perception of Semin as a player.

Here is Semin's HERO chart:



Everything looks pretty good there.

Despite being consistently labeled as lazy he always seems to find himself above average in possession on the teams he is on. Being above average on some of those high flying Washington teams is very impressive



Alexander Semin makes 7M per season and will do so for the next three years. Is he worht 7M per year? He is definitely not. However, if Carolina really is willing to eat a "significant" portion of salary and that number drops to 3.5M per year. I think that is something definitely worth exploring.

Here are some other details about retaining salary in trades from the great Mike Colligan

There are a few key limitations:
• ‘Salary’ refers to remaining base player salary and bonuses, including signing bonuses.
• The percentage retained cannot be more than 50 percent of the salary and cap hit.
• The same percentage must be retained for both salary and cap hit. This cannot be altered from year to year.
• Teams are limited to three retained salary contracts each season.
• Teams cannot retain more than an aggregate amount of 15 percent of the salary cap upper limit. In 2014-15 that number is $10.35 million.
• A player’s contract can only be traded twice in a retained salary transaction.


Aqcuiring Alexander Semin would give Evgeni Malkin new right winger at a respectable cap hit and Chris Kunitz would become a movable asset before his real decline hits.

Considering Jim Rutherford is the General Manager who gave Alexander Semin his contract at full value it would make sense if he wanted it at half the value.

You can buy into narratives or numbers in an idea like this, but one of the two carries a lot more bias than the other.

This is something that should be at least discussed in the Penguins front office. It is always nice to take advantage of other team's financial shortcomings IE: Clarkson to Columbus.

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Penguins GM Jim Rutherford did most of his shopping early in the season.

Rutherford traded the Penguins 2015 1st round pick and Rob Klinkhammer to the Edmonton Oilers for David Perron. Perron has done a nice job in Pittsburgh and still has one year left remaining on his contract.

When you compare that deal to the one Chicago made for Antoine Vermette it makes it look that much better. Vermette was acquired for Chicago's 2015 1st round pick and defense prospect Klas Dahlbeck.

Vermette is a rental and his reputation precedes his actual on ice production these days.

Rutherford's other trade made well in advance of the deadline was moving Marcel Goc to St. Louis in return for Maxim Lapierre. Goc is a vanilla positionally sound player and Lapierre is supposed to bring more 'snarl' to the lineup.

How has this panned out?



Both players only have one assist since being traded. Lapierre is a much worse possession player. This was a low level deal but it didn't make the Penguins any better.

Daniel Winnik will play his first game with the Penguins this evening. The Penguins gave up a 2016 2nd round pick as well as a 2015 4th round pick. Winnik is a very good bottom six forward and should make the Penguins better.

Tough to say if the Penguins are done or not on the trade front but be sure to keep up to date on all the rumors with Hockeybuzz's rumor tracker the next two days.

Thanks for reading!

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