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Analysis of a BLOCKBUSTER- JETS & SABRES

February 11, 2015, 1:31 PM ET [70 Comments]
Peter Tessier
Winnipeg Jets Blogger •Winnipeg Jets Writer • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Analysis of a Blockbuster

For some it may be shocking that Zach Bogosian, he of the 7-year deal (the longest of the RFA group that summer) was included in the deal between the Jets and Sabres today. It shouldn’t be as although the hulking defenseman was often out with injury and not always finding his game on the ice it was off the ice that seemed to dog him.

Bogo isn’t a bad guy but like Evander Kane he is a young guy making a huge amount of money and trying to figure out how he fits in a small pond. While not as outwardly excessive in his expressions via social media as Kane, there were rumours, stories and in some cases photos that presented a rather unflattering picture of Bogosian. Believe what you want to believe but I would suggest that once Buffalo decided they could part with Myers Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff saw his chance to deal with 2 potential problems.

For Myers and Bogo it’s a simple of ‘change of scenery could do both players some good’ scenario. While Bogosian has five years left on is deal at 5.14 million per year Myers has four years at 5.4 million. It’s not a huge salary advantage.

The Kane part of the deal is a bit more interesting.

Kane was going to be a goner after last week and everyone knew it. However did anyone really understand that it could happen so quickly and to a team not even close to the playoffs? Some made the argument the non-playoff teams made more sense than going to the summer but how many in the league could match a prospect, roster player and a first round pick without hurting themselves? The answer is ‘not many’.

Buffalo had amassed an armada of draft picks with three in the first round for 2015. They had prospects and they had roster players to move, namely Drew Stafford and Chris Stewart. But what is the likelihood of the pick and prospects, in this case the Islanders or Blues 2015 first (Buffalo's choice), Joel Armia and Brendan Lemieux being what Evander Kane is?

That’s the interesting point. I had not considered this until Robert Cleave tweeted out it was like trading Kane for three lottery picks.

He’s not wrong.

What is the likelihood that Kane stays in Buffalo after his deal is done? Of all the NHL cities with bad images Edmonton Winnipeg and Buffalo are your rotating top 3. Do any of those seem like Kane’s kind of town?

Aside from the city and impressions that are rightly or wrongly justified, what if Buffao can’t turn it around by the time Kane is in his final year? There’s risk for Buffalo in this equation and those two prospects plus the 1st round pick are a lottery ticket, one for each of Kane’s remaining years on the current deal.

Kane is an established NHL player with an impressive resume at age 23. By all accounts and metrics, new and old, he is a 2nd or 1st line winger on most teams, except in Winnipeg where he was a 3rd line winger. Aside from the off-ice stuff Kane’s play and game along with the Jets roster structure was not allowing the player or team to reap the rewards. What assurance is there that either of the prospects or picks will turn into the equivalent of Kane, separately or combined?

There isn’t any and that’s why it’s a risk, a gamble, and a lottery all in one move.

It could work out that the pieces develop into something meaningful either by development or through further moves but there is no guarantee, just like there is no guarantee Kane stays in Buffalo after 3 years.

The Jets know Kane. They know his agent and they know what he wants. In some regards they may have had the advantage over the Sabres because they have a better idea of the future Kane wants. Buffalo has elected to take on the risk based on what they see with Kane and their own team in terms of ‘where the future will be’.

While the Jets have a bit more to play for right now with a legitimate shot at the post season Buffalo is worrying about the draft and beyond. When looking at the Jets prospect pool they now have: Morrissey, De Leo, Petan, Ehlers, Helleybuck, Comrie, Lemieux, Armia and more. The Jets have always been about a sustainable future and building a team from within their organization. Buffalo is about to embark on a similar journey as the Jets. Now we get to see who has the better crystal ball and this deal, down the road, should say who had a better look at how the future would unfold.

Or like Cleave suggests who got the winning lottery ticket.
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