Let’s compare the offense and defense and see who deserves more blame. The Sharks goals are down so, naturally the offense is worse, right? Not necessarily.
It’s true that the Sharks goals are down but it isn’t a problem that needs to be drastically addressed with a reactionary trade. It’s a problem that needs to be addressed by the coach, with the current players.
The short and sweet version is that the Sharks simply don’t shoot enough this season. The Sharks are, generally, a poor shooting team in comparison with the rest of the league as far as percentage goes. They make up for it by hitting the oppositions goal with more rubber.
Here are some charts – because I know you all love them – showing some Sharks stats over the last five seasons.
Despite having a lower goals for per game total this year the Sharks are actually shooting at a higher percentage. The problem isn’t the talent in the forward group – it’s the amount of shots they take. This offensive group isn’t nearly as poor 5v5 as people would have you believe. They are, by systematic design, flawed but a few extra shots would make them look a whole heap better.
This year the Sharks have their lowest shots for per 60 in the last five years. Often cited for less goals is the fact Brent Burns went back to defence. That is a biased fabrication. It’s the less shots that’s killing the Sharks goal scoring – we’ve already established the highest shooting percentage for a Sharks team in the five year sample.
Not only are the shots in general down, the scoring chances are down as well. San Jose isn’t taking enough time – or putting in enough effort – to get to a better percentage shooting area. This is a factor in the Sharks below-average (relative to the league) shooting percentage.
If the Sharks don’t address their biggest issue – the defensive group – they are going to continue to struggle.
The blunders of Scott Hannan are well documented. The lack of defensive talent in Matt Irwin is noted and settling for Matt Tennyson is a stretch. I’m not completely convinced Justin Braun is as good as everyone makes him out to be – I think a lot of his extensive credit has more to do with the lack of quality D than his actual abilities. He has also successfully ridden Vlasic for the past few years - but more on that in a future post. Forced to choose between Braun and Dillon, I’d choose Brenden Dillon.
This defensive group is the worst Sharks group of defenders in the five year sample. Now, some of you might use that to defend Niemi – go ahead, be his hero – but don’t let this cloud the fact that Niemi is well below average for an NHL starter. Niemi is a problem that will be gone after this season and while the goaltending situation most likely won’t be rectified without a trade this year a better defense can’t fix his rebound control, puck tracking or inability to make routine saves.
Back to the defense. Here are the scoring chances against per 60 and shots against per 60 for the last five seasons.
This season is the worst for both categories. The Sharks absolutely need another top-four defender – and they need it long before they go and waste time picking up a depth forward.
With next year’s top six, potentially, looking like this: Pavelski, Thornton, Couture, Marleau, Goldobin, X(Nieto/Hertl/Karlsson) – there’s no reason to even focus on building the forward group via trade or free agency this year when there are bigger issues. With Marleau and Thornton most likely never waiving their NMC everyone better just get used to that top six for another two seasons.
Shoot more, add a top-four defender. That’s as good of a solution as it gets with how the Sharks – and their contracts – are structured. There is no rebuild coming – there are additions in key areas in the next two years that will set this franchise up for the goodbye’s with Marleau and Thornton without sending team teal directly to the basement.
The Sharks are at home to face the high-flying Capitals tonight and they're going to need a much better performance than they've put forth lately if they want to escape with two points.
Thanks for reading.
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