|
Upgrading the Bottom-Six Forwards the Goal By the Trade Deadline |
|
|
|
|
|
The Rangers head into the break having won three in a row and 16 of 19. Many of the concerns and problems from earlier this season look to have been re mediated, but that doesn't mean there still isn't work to be done or gaps to fill. The strong play of the Metro means that despite the fine run, a playoff spot is nowhere near locked up or even on steady ground with 37 games to go. In addition, depth up front is a concern, especially with those games coming basically every-other-night.
Clearly the two areas that could be upgraded are the bottom six in general, but specifically, either a center or power forward as well as a sixth d-man. The top-six seems to now be settled in, bolstered by the recent hit play of Chris Kreider. CK20's speed and power give that top-six a second element along those lines to go with Rick Nash, and if you look at style of play between the two, one could argue that Kreider is more of a prototypical power forward than Nash, who relies more on skill than his size and power. When you place them on opposing lines and add in the skill players of Derek Stepan and Derick Brassard down the middle with Mats Zuccarello, who gives as good as he gets, and Martin St. Louis, who is able to create, the top-six appears to have everything a team would need.
Despite the above said about Nash, what is clear is that he going to the net more this year than last. Chris Boyle's' great article (http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/where-rick-nashs-rangers-goals-are-coming-from/) visually and graphically displayed just that fact. Nash is finally healthy and over the pair of concussions he suffered the first two years in New York. The back to the net and hope to get a shot on goal and staying on the perimeter have gone the route of the dinosaurs, as they are each extinct. Nash now goes hard to the net and using his size and speed to create space.
The bottom-six is an area of concern. While some of the pieces have remained together, they have yet to fully connect. Larry Brooks spelled that out Thursday (http://nypost.com/2015/01/22/why-its-so-vital-the-rangers-give-j-t-miller-more-ice-time/), noting that Carl Hagelin and Kevin Hayes have played together a lot but the production has not been there. Tuesday night, coach Alain Vigneualt moved Dominic Moore and J.T. Miller up to play alongside Hagelin, dropping Hayes and Lee Stempniak down to play with Jesper Fast. For a few periods at least, the trip seemed to mesh. Brooks indicated that Miller is the one who needs to show what he has over the next few weeks heading into the trade deadline, so that AV and Glen Sather can best determine what to add.
To me, Miller has clearly shown he is a winger not a center. In addition, despite playing ,angels on the fourth line, Miller is better suited to playing the third line, where his offensive talent and grit can shine through. Hagelin is someone who is what he is. Basically, he is a solid penalty killer, who uses his speed and positionally to excel there, while his offensive talent - much so ability to finish - is a major question. Hags likely won't have a major breakthrough but his owed creates space so a placement on the third line is fine, though arguments could easily be made that he sits better on the fourth, especially when AV rolls all four trios. However, his lack of size is a detriment since if he is on the bottom trio, despite his willingness to get his nose dirty, he will get pushed around a bit.
Moore is really more of a fourth than third liner. He has shown the ability to step and move up when needed, but he fits better on that bottom trio. Moore's defensive capabilities and prowess in the face off circle make him to me a perfect fourth line center. If the view is that Kevin Hayes is not really ready to be a third line pivot man or he is better suited to wing, then the gap at third line center has to be filled. Hayes has the size and skill to man the spot but AV has now shown the willingness to move him down a line and we all know his struggles in the dots.
Stempniak is a nice depth player to have, who can fit in on the fourth line but is really a third line. Fast also has meshed in nicely since his promotion. The call ups of Miller and Fast have settled and steadied the bottom six, which was in a major state of flux earlier in the season. In addition, their inexpensive salaries are huge against the cap, where the Rangers are close to because of the big dollars rightfully awarded to the big names. Even though that steadiness has righted the ship it doesn't mean that improvements can't be made.
As I noted above there are several who could be replaced, and that doesn't even go into Tanner Glass, who have bashed since his signing. We may want him gone, but it would not be shocking if he gets into several games down the stretch and plays a role in the playoffs, when the Rangers get there. His salary is prohibitive, because even if he is sent down, $545k remains on the cap, which impacts your ability to replace him either internally or externally.
The questions then becomes who do you bring in, can their salaries fit in and who gets replaced? The answers to each and every one will determine how New York proceeds. If the $ are too high, then there is no room for that player. If he is minimally better than what's there, then see the first two questions for your answers on how the Ranges are likely to proceed.
There are several possible options out there. Antoine Vermette, whose salary isn't that high at $3.75 mil and whose deal expires after this season, has been the name most prominently mentioned. Of course, he will and is drawing a lot of interest, which will escalate his price and Don Maloney has shown no indication of any sort of discount to be given, preferring to his asset as long as possible to drive up the price. I have seen some believe that New York could maybe move Miller and a pick possibly more to get Vermette. While that would shore up the middle, that would hurt the depth and also further adversely impact their cap down the road, as whoever the Rangers replace Miller with next year likely is to cost more. Plus, the incremental gain over replacing Miller is not as much as replacing Stempniak or Glass or maybe even Fast. I hear the argument that Anthony Duclair could replace Miller, and while that's true, I prefer he replaces Stempniak. In addition, while Pavel Buchnevich maybe over next year, I am not sure he is day for prime time, nor is Oscar Lindberg or Ryan Bourque. That said, Brooks today advocated for Lindberg, but if using, he profiles more as a third liner rather than fourth liner.
Another name recently mentioned that I covered previously is Tyler Bozak. His salary and length of time left on his deal, make adding a $4.2 million, third line center not the wisest use of funds. That is especially so seeing that Stepan has to be re-signed with decisions to be made on MSL, Zucc, Hagelin etc., and no, I am not dealing Zucc for Bozak. Mike Santorelli is the second Toronto center mentioned in trade rumors. I would be an advocate of those because he can play center and wing. In addition, while his face-off wins are down, he did win 52% of his draws and would be a major upgrade in the circles. Getting him for a pick or lower level prospect and pick to me would be a wise move, shoring up center and proving bottom-six depth.
The other big candidate mentioned as a possibility is Chris Stewart. I will admit I used to be a huge Stewart fan. That word 'used' to is the key as his status as player and my interest level in him has plummeted. What looked to be a promising career as a power forward has gone almost completely off the rails. He has shown some signs of life lately, but adding him is likely to be very expensive, mainly in terms of players, but his cap hit may be tough to fit in as well.
Of course, Twitter is raft with rumors and proposals. Ideas such as trading for Taylor Hall or reuniting two Staals by getting either Eric or Jordan have been bandied about. They are fun to speculate on but are most probably fairly unrealistic to occur for a variety of reasons, including cost to acquire and in terms of cap hit, so the prevailing view should be incremental gains not big splashes. I would love some of those names, but while New York made a major move last year on the Callahan-MSL swap, similar this year would surprise me. Maybe Zucc goes for someone, but selfishly, I hope he sticks and his grittiness and playmaking on the top line will prove even more valuable as the season moves along.
On D, Matt Hunwick has been pretty solid. Because of that, if anyone is moved, especially for a blueliner, I could see John Moore traded. Moore has shown snippets of breaking through but has to date failed to crack that ceiling. He always seems to leave you wanting or expecting more. But it is that potential and relatively low salary that makes him interesting to teams rebuilding. I could possibly see New York looking at Ron Hainsey, who is a pretty good defensive third liners but two more years after this one at $2.833 mil per might minimize the interest level If not, another Carolina blue liner, Andrej Sekera, who has been prominently mentioned as a trade target, could be the main target, though like Vermette, he should have a lot of suitors. In addition, if Marc Methot can be re-signed by Ottawam he would be a solid addition on the third pairing. The main key will be to add someone, like Kevin Klein, who can play the third line but move up if needed and whose salary is not so huge that it would draconian for the salary cap. Easier said than done, but because this has the potential to be another special season, Sather can't leave any stone unturned in looking to improve the team.
Six weeks till trade deadline. While I don't expect it to have the drama of last season, the potential UFAs and RFAs could result in moves that none expect or maybe will like. Settle in, it should be a crazy ride
New York Rangers Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»