Wanna blog? Start your own hockey blog with My HockeyBuzz. Register for free today!
 

Game Day: Sens Host Blues; Turris' Progression As #1 Centre

November 22, 2014, 6:56 AM ET [45 Comments]
Jared Crozier
Ottawa Senators Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Coming off a tight and nail-biting 3-2 win over the Nashville Predators Thursday night, the Ottawa Senators complete this mini 2-game home stand when they face another Central Division powerhouse, the St. Louis Blues.

The Blues are coming in on a rare 2 game losing streak after suffering a 4-1 defeat at the hands of the Montreal Canadiens. The Blues bring one of the hottest lines in the league to town as the trio of Jaden Schwartz, Jori Lehtera and Vladimir Tarasenko have taken the league by storm, accounting for 25 of the Blues’ 48 goals so far this season.

The big off-season acquisition for St. Louis, Paul Stastny, has had trouble getting going, and has just 1 goal (and no assists) in his last 9 games. He missed some time with injury early on, but has played 7 since returning and is a -8 in that stretch.

Alex Steen has also seemed to have disappeared off the face of the earth as the 33 goal scorer from a year ago is on pace for about 12, sitting at 3 right now (but does have 11 points). Ditto for T.J. Oshie, who has just 3 points in 12 games.

While Ottawa has scored more goals than the Blues, the combination of Brian Elliott and Jake Allen has been dynamite in the St. Louis goal, and they have the league’s best GAA at 2.00 and have given up just 25 goals at even strength through 19 games. This is helped by the fact the Blues allow the second fewest shots on goal in the league, at just a shade over 26 per game.

If there was any part of the Blues game that is ripe for the picking, it is the penalty kill, where they are less than 80%.

The Blues are almost unbeatable when they score first (.818 W%), while this season the Senators have actually been more likely to win when they fall behind. (.455 WP when scoring first, .571 W% when opponent scores first).

This is the first afternoon game for the Sens, with a 3:00 pm start. By a quick count, the Senators were 3-8-2 in games that started before 5:00 pm EST in 2013-14, a big reason the Senators tried to limited the number of afternoon games they would play this season (there will be 7).

Robin Lehner will get his second straight start in goal, blowing apart my theory of yesterday that the Sens would return to a rotation in goal.

Paul MacLean didn't anticipate making any lineup changes, and with the afternoon game there will not be a morning skate available for Curtis Lazar to show he is ready to get back in to return Colin Greening to the press box.


Turris #1?

With the Jason Spezza signing in Dallas for $7.5M/yr over 4 years, it made me think of the hole he has left in the Senators’ organization. While a large faction of the Anti-Spezza clan bid good riddance, is the team really better off, in the present, without him?

The biggest factor at to how much Spezza would be missed was whether or not Kyle Turris was ready to step into a #1 centre role. So, almost 20 games into his rather permanent spot at the top of the Sens depth chart in the all-important pivot position, how has he performed?

It really depends on your expectation of where his game would go. If you expected him to instantly become a point per game player as well as a dominant two way player, you are forever the optimist and likely very disappointed.

In terms of offensive production, his point totals are down from .71 PPG to .61 PPG, while playing against a slightly better Competition% (29.52% this vs 29.24% last season) and despite not playing with Bobby Ryan for part of this season, his strength of teammate percentage is actually higher this season than it was last (probably due to playing more with Erik Karlsson behind him, which can be both a good and bad thing).



(it is my first crack at throwing these types of graphics in, so bear with me)

The Corsi% at 5 on 5 for all three of the current Senators’ “big guns” (Turris, MacArthur & Ryan) have gone down from last season to this, and Turris’ remained closest to what it was last year. His game hasn't really changed from this year to last, and that is where your individual expectations from him will judge how you think he has performed this season.



As for pure goals for and against, at 5 on 5 Turris was phenomenal last season, with a 17.93% margin while Spezza was -8.46%. Turris' margin is down significantly this season (now dead even), even with much better goaltending he there is as much chance that he will get scored on as his team will score with him on the ice.



The difference lies in the supporting cast. As you can see from the graphics, Turris has remained pretty steady, with a minor downgrade so far this season, but Zibanejad as his #2 has been pretty dreadful (and I know there is a #2 joke in there, but I choose to be classier than that, at least in this case).

Spezza’s biggest contribution was on the power play, since his play at even strength was so maligned. Well, with Spezza gone the power play is clicking at a slightly greater percentage so far this season (18.8%) than it did last year (18.4%).

I will be honest, I started this process with the intention of showing how much the Senators indeed missed Jason Spezza, and that he left a gaping hole that Turris couldn't fill. There are obviously other variables at play (goaltending, teammate %) , but Turris has maintained pretty well while moving up in the depth chart, and that his performance would be even better if he has someone playing behind him to force other teams to take some of the heat off him, because Zibanejad hasn’t done that thus far.

It remains to be seen if Turris, who is tall but not really physically strong when compared to his competitors, can play an entire 82 game season in the role without wearing down, and if he can maintain his level of play. But one thing is for sure, the Senators need to get more from their other centremen (Legwand, Zibanejad in particular) to take some of the heat off Turris, or give Lazar more responsibility.

For what it's worth, heading into this season I thought Turris would struggle with the extra load and tougher competition, and he has dipped slightly. It remains to be seen if he can keep it up, but I am not disappointed with the way he has performed so far. Would I like to see him play better and put up more points? Sure, but for his first stretch as the go-to guy (not counting times where Spezza was injured), I would call his play adequate, solid but not spectacular. There is still room for growth and improvement, but he hasn't yet reached his prime years.


(all graphics created by waronice.com)


The game is on TSN5 at 3:00.

Predictions?


Join the Discussion: » 45 Comments » Post New Comment
More from Jared Crozier
» Goodbye, and good luck!
» Can Colin White fill the #2C role as early as next year?
» Boucher staying put, at least for now
» Boucher Day
» Sens fall to #4 in draft lottery