In the Spring of 2010 Tanner Pearson was gearing up mentally to be a potential selection in the upcoming draft in Los Angeles.
The then 17-year old Pearson had just become draft eligible and was coming off a monster year in a league you've probably never heard of unless you are from the Greater Ontario area. That's right, he was playing for the Waterloo Siskins in the GOJHL (Great Ontario Junior Hockey League). While it is now considered probably the best Junior B league in North America, it isn't common you see players drafted straight out of the GOJHL.
Despite being one of the best players in the league in 2010 he was, without surprise, passed over in the 2010 NHL Entry draft. However, his good season with Waterloo instilled confidence in the team that drafted him in the 2008 CHL entry draft in the 14th round, the Barrie Colts.
Pearson went on to play with Barrie for the 2010-11 registering 42 points and 15 goals in 66 games while being a minus-12 rating. Not spectacular numbers by any stretch, but good enough to get him some recognition and a potential selection in the upcoming 2011 NHL Entry draft in Minnesota. Again, nope, didn't happen. Despite not being an upper echelon talent at the time, the Kings, with their penchant for OHL scouting, still had an eye on Pearson. In fact,
the team nearly selected him with their 7th round pick in 2011 but opted instead to go with the big Swedish left winger Michael Schumacher of the Frolunda Jr. squad. He returned to Barrie for 2011-12 unclaimed by an NHL team and as an overage player.
Who knew that a year later Pearson would jump almost a full 200 spots in draft rankings and scouting reports and be a 1st round selection? From just outside the 7th round to just inside the 1st round. What a difference a year makes.
Pearson had a gigantic 2011-12 as a 20-year old with Barrie, scoring 91 points and 35 goals in just 60 games. He took steps in every statistical category and even earned himself a selection on Canada's U-20 World Junior Championship squad. After the 2011-12 season he had it was no surprise to hear his name called so soon in 2012 Entry Draft, and now, here he is just two years later bursting onto the NHL scene with a tremendous 2013-14 playoff run and a torrid start to 2014-15.
So how did he get passed over twice? Why were we not aware of his potential ceiling?
Well first off, let's step back a bit on Tanner Pearson currently. He is in the top 5 in goals, behind Rick Nash and Corey Perry, and tied in goals with Sidney Crosby and Tyler Seguin. This is not likely to be something that continues. Especially when you consider his extremely high shooting percentage of 36.8%. While it's an amazing start, both he and Brock Nelson are going to be poster children for regression to the mean. Don't be surprised if they slow down, and don't be saying things like "Bust" when they eventually hit a rough patch.
But back to the question at hand, where did Pearson come from? Why was he passed over?
The Kitchener, Ontario native was a curious player in his earlier junior days. He had all the makings of a good solid, all-around forward. His hockey sense and playmaking have always been talked highly of. However, there wasn't really anything else that made him pop. He was a above-average goal scorer, a good defensive player, a good passer, an average to below-average skater. Just good and average. Not great. And when you are selecting players in late rounds you aren't looking for just good. That's the time of the draft when you are going bang or bust player, or at least that's been the methodology of the Kings in late rounds.
2014 draft selection Spencer Watson is a good example of this, as was 2012 Mr. Irrelevant, Nick Ebert. The Kings have had a habit of drafting players with extreme amounts of talent on one end of the spectrum, with some definite work needed on the other.
Ebert was very highly regarded by scouts for his natural offensive and skating ability. However his defensive game was of great concern to scouts. So much of a concern that he slipped to the 7th round. The Kings were willing to take that risk in the 7th and are now being rewarded for it as Ebert looks to be a tremendous up and coming blueliner.
Watson has some of the slickest puck skills, vision, and offensive make up you could find in the draft, but his defensive game and physical make-up (5'9") were too big a risk to take earlier.
Also factor in the limited junior exposure of Pearson. He had just a season and a half of OHL play under his belt, and he didn't exactly look other worldly in his first year. With such limited play against other potential NHL talents it was hard for scouts to get a good read on him. Was his success attributed to him being much older than the competition? Was 2011-12 with Barrie an anomaly?
In 2010-11, Pearson just didn't have that one element of his game that made him a boom or bust pick. He was too safe of a player and too much of an all-around player to blow a late round pick on. In the 2011-12 season with Barrie, Pearson showed improvement in every aspect of his game, so much so that instead of being a dime a dozen "All-around" forward, he developed a realistic and translatable NHL skill-set that separated him from the pack. His tenacious style and aggressive play turned a lot of heads.
The Hockey Writers had this to say in March of 2012 regarding Pearson.
A player that can play up and down a lineup, Pearson is a complete forward. He has good size, skates well and competes hard every shift. He plays an effective two way game and has been lethal on Barrie’s powerplay this year.
At Hockey's Future we have had Tanner Pearson as a 6.0-7.0 for most of his junior career. If you are unfamiliar with the HF rankings, that would put him as anywhere from a 3rd to a 2nd liner.
Corey Pronman of Hockey Prospectus had this to say about Tanner Pearson
Pearson has been one of this draft season's surprise stories as the winger entering his third draft eligible season skyrocketed towards the top of the OHL scoring race and grabbed the attention of scouts everywhere. Pearson is a gritty forward who works hard on the forecheck, doesn't shy from throwing his body around, does good work in front of the net, and shows effort in his own end. While Pearson is 19 and turns 20 in August, his frame is somewhat filled and shows good strengths in his battles. He has a desirable offensive element to him, led by his high-end hockey sense. Pearson is a tremendous passer with eyes in the back of his head and can make tremendous feeds and consistently execute above-average ones. Pearson has average hands, maybe a tick above that, but does fine protecting the puck and getting his stick on pucks in front of the net. His main weakness is his skating, which is below-average and doesn't look great off the line, but his top speed is okay although it could certainly be better. Due to his inability to be very effective in the transition game, Pearson projects as a better PP scorer than an even-strength one but will be effective defensively 5-on-5.
Reading over some of the draft notes, who knew what Pearson was going to be? After all, very similar things were said of Trevor Lewis (aside from the skating), and he has turned into a 4th liner at best. I could probably find quotes of 10 other scouts that have Pearson displaying skills of a 4th liner or a 2nd liner. Drafting, as I've said before, is an extremely inexact science. You just have to know what you are looking for.
In the 2012 Entry draft when the Kings took Pearson with the 30th pick, they seemed to know just what they were looking for. I know, I know, you are probably saying "Oh man could you imagine if we took him with our 7th round pick they year before? Clearly, they just needed one more year of eyes on him in the OHL to know what they were getting. Even then, when he was selected with the 30th pick there were people who questioned it considering the talent left on the board. The Hockey Writers had Pearson ranked at 47, Central Scouting had him ranked at 26, Sportsnet did not have him in their top 30, and NHL.com had him at 25. He was all over the place really but within the range of a 1st round pick if you saw what you wanted. The Kings definitely did.
Of all the 2012 names in that first round, like Mikhail Grigorenko, Henrik Samuelsson, Scott Laughton, Tom Wilson, Hampus Lindholm, Slater Koekkoek, Malcolm Subban, Brendan Gaunce etc. etc. Tanner Pearson is kind of a forgotten face. Part of that is because of his unorthodox journey to the NHL and his style. Low flash, hard work...basically LA Kings style.
Selections like Pearson and his current linemate Tyler Toffoli make the Kings scouting staff look like geniuses. However, it's always a bit risky when it comes to selecting a player like Pearson, especially when it is with a first round choice. But here we are, nearly a month into the season and people are talking about him in their early season Calder polls.
Strange journey, right? From GOJHL all-star, passed over twice in the draft, to a household name amongst Kings fans and Hockey pundits. He has a cup ring to boot.
If you didn't know Tanner Pearson before, you do now.
He'll have his ups and downs, no doubt, but the young forward has come a long way and isn't showing too many signs of slowing down at this point.
I'm not going to make any projections about his season, I'm just going to enjoy watching the ride he is on and wherever it goes.
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