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G7 Oilers vs Capitals: Problems With Ice-Time

October 22, 2014, 1:13 PM ET [888 Comments]
Matt Henderson
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
FORWARDS

If a team is going to run all 4 lines there will be casualties when it comes to ice time. You cant play everybody all the time, however, it will be up to the coach to still make sure the team puts the players on the ice who will give the team the best chance to win. For the Oilers, that means Taylor Hall and his line will get the minutes. For others, not so much.

The Edmonton Oilers have not yet found “balance” in their distribution of ice time amongst the forward group. The top line of Hall, RNH, and Eberle are getting lots of ice. Naturally this makes a lot of sense. Taylor Hall is unquestionably the Oilers’ best player. Of all the high picks he is the oldest (not counting Pouliot) and most mature in his game. If the game was in question, who would you choose to put on the ice? For most it would be Taylor Hall.

The problem is that the Oilers need more than the 1st line going and they haven’t been getting much from the 2nd and 3rd lines, or at least as much as they could. The issue it seems is that the lack of Center depth has forced the team to rely very heavily on Boyd Gordon’s line. The good news is that the line has played remarkably well given their assignments and talent level. Jesse Joensuu has completely turned his game around, Hendricks is still a mean SOB and Gordon just keeps on Gordoning. However, the more they play the less Draisaitl, Yak, and the Perron line plays.

In games with lots of penalties against the youngest two Oilers lottery picks ride the pine. In games where the score is tight they ride the pine. In the 3rd period, you guessed it, they ride the pine. Nail Yakupov is tied for 2nd in team scoring and he averages 12:46 a night. In last game’s win he played roughly 2 minutes in the 1st Period, 6 minutes in 2nd Period, and 2 minutes again in the 3rd Period for the least amount of ice-time played by any play on either side (10:47). He finished the night a plus player, was principally responsible for the Schultz goal, played a physical game, and was once again one of the most dynamic Oilers on the ice. His early season has been fantastic but there’s no ice for him.

But it isn’t just Yakupov or the overwhelmed Draisaitl. David Perron co-lead the Oilers in goal scoring last year and his ice-time has taken a big hit too. Perron is playing roughly 15.5 minutes a night and last year he was at 19. It is difficult to produce when prime ice-time is taken away. This all seems directly related to the availability of Centers that the coach trusts. He has 2.5 in RNH, Gordon, and Arcobello. With Draisaitl not yet playing to his potential, and possibly soon en route to Prince Albert, his linemates are going to miss a lot of shifts.

It all comes back to MacT failing to find a suitable replacement for Gagner. The imbalance down the middle early on this season is an obstacle the club has yet to find a graceful way to overcome.

DEFENSE

Unlike the forward group, the ice-time for the Defense is lopsided not because of a flaw with the roster but because of coaching preference. The Oilers went all-in on Justin Schultz again this year and the results were demonstrably terrible. It’s clear that the organization WANTS him to be a big minute defender who can control the game and provide significant offense, but it just hasn’t translated well. Additionally the coach WANTS Andrew Ference to be a better defender than he is right now, perhaps because he believes all that fitness should count for something (but it doesn’t).

I’m going to lay out the average ice-time per game for all 8 Oiler defensemen who have played this year and you tell me if you spot the issue.

Justin Schultz 23:30
Nikita Nikitin 21:42
Brad Hunt 20:29
Andrew Ference 18:54
Jeff Petry 18:19
Darnell Nurse 16:59
Martin Marincin 16:56
Mark Fayne 16:41

Just raise your hand when you spot the problem.

For reasons beyond the understanding of almost everyone, the Oilers ran with Schultz and pumped Ference full of minutes. If you were looking at problems outside of the goaltending to pin losses on, there’s your culprit. The problem with tinkering around with the Defense is that the Oilers don’t have a Rock-Steady player to keep things calm while the experiment is going on. Justin Schultz is not yet and may never be a “true” top pairing player. At any rate, he shouldn’t be logging huge minutes at this point in his career based on his effectiveness.

Justin Schultz is an offensive Defenseman who is 47th in shots by a defenseman in the NHL. He simply doesn’t create much out there despite the big minutes. Then, if we factor in his defensive lapses, his overall effectiveness as a Defenseman in general becomes even more suspect. Combined with the fact that Petry is dragging Ference along by his heels all over the ice we get a picture of very flawed deployment by the Oilers.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Oilers first win came in a game where the ice–time was distributed among the defense like this:

Jeff Petry 22:31
Andrew Ference 19:51
Justin Schultz 19:48
Nikita Nikitin 19:14
Martin Marincin 18:07
Mark Fayne 17:33

It was a significantly more even distribution and the first time all year Schultz was below the 20 minute mark. The further we see Ference slide the better I think the team will be for it too. I also think Schultz at 19 minutes a night will be a significant upgrade over Schultz at 23+ minutes a night. The Oilers have Fayne, Marincin, and Petry who can eat more minutes than they’ve been used to date. They need to keep the minutes for the others down if they want to keep winning and playing better D.

LINEUP

The Oilers shouldn’t be tinkering with the lines at all given the win in the last game. We should also expect to see RNH get a chance to match up against the Ovechkin line given his success against the Stamkos line. If he falters then the Gordon line will get the chance to play. Draisaitl is under a lot of pressure with just 3 games left on his 9 game stint. He almost scored on Bishop but the big goalie robbed him blind.

Hall RNH Eberle
Purcell Draisaitl Perron
Pouliot Arco Yakupov
Hendricks Gordon Joensuu

Marincin Fayne
Nikitin Schultz
Ference Petry

Scrivens

OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME

1) Shutting Down Ovechkin. This is the same assignment that was given for Stamkos in the last game and the club proved they could do a decent job of it. Ovechkin, like Stamkos, is a goal-scorer supreme. He has 6 points in 5 games and 5 of those are Goals. On the PP he sets up to the Goalie’s right side and his one-timer is lethal. In fact, all but 1 of his goals this season have come from the right half of the ice. 5v5 he has a knack for showing up where the defense least expects him and in an instant the puck is behind the netminder. Incredible.

2) Free Yak. 10 minutes in the last game is not enough. He has played very well this season and I think deserves more ice. The Oilers need more depth in their scoring to sustain winning hockey. Counting on the top line to carry the team every night is too much. If it isn’t Yak then it needs to be Perron or others, but stapling the young Russian to the bench is drawing a lot of unwanted attention to the player.

3) Less Is More. With Justin Schultz and Andrew Ference less is more. The staff needs to limit their minutes so they can be more effective. As mentioned above, the team needs to find Marincin, Petry, and Fayne more minutes. The Defensive core of the team is not lopsided in terms of talent. There’s no Pronger or Doughty to play 30 minutes a night here. Keeping them all close to the 20 minute mark is fine by me and the results spoke for themselves in the last game.

Puck drops tonight at 7:38PM Mountain Time on Sportsnet 360 or Sportsnet 1. Game On!

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