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Hotstove: Who Will Win The Rocket Richard?

September 18, 2014, 11:34 AM ET [36 Comments]
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Welcome to another edition of the Hockeybuzz hotstove.

Over the last couple weeks this space has been used to preview the upcoming season, and once again that will be the case.

In this edition of the hotstove we'll be predicting the Rocket Richard winner for 2014-15.

Todd Cordell: Corey Perry

I'm going to go against the grain a little bit and go with Corey Perry to win his second Rocket Richard trophy since 2010-11.

Stamkos and Ovechkin are the sexy picks, but for my money Perry has a better puck distributor to work with in Ryan Getzlaf. That should give him a bit of an advantage; especially when you look at the chemistry that duo has.

Perry has one of the best releases in hockey, scores more than his fair share of garbage goals, and will see no shortage of good looks, so I think he can upset the big two.

Matt Henderson: Steven Stamkos

My two early Rocket Richard favourites are kind of boring because they aren’t unexpected. I have it going down to the wire between Stamkos and Ovechkin, but I’m leaning Stamkos. After that injury plagued season Stamkos is going to want to come back better than ever and I think he can do it. The Bolts really improved their Defense and added a couple of really good puck movers to the group they already had. Better defense leads to better offensive opportunities. The loss of Marty St Louis is a painful one for overall team scoring but the addition of Drouin should offset that a little. Stamkos is my pick.

In many ways the same logic can apply to Ovechkin’s Capitals but I think the addition of Trotz as the Head Coach will change the way the team plays. That might be presumptuous because Trotz’ previous teams were never as offensively talented as the Washington Capitals are, but I think it’s more likely we see Ovechkin sacrifice a little scoring for team success than we see him maintain the same scoring rates.

Michael Stuart: Alex Ovechkin

The easy answer for me would obviously be Steven Stamkos. His leg is reportedly feeling much better now than it did at the end of last season. That alone probably puts him in the conversation for the Rocket Richard Trophy.

Even so, I’m going to go in another direction. Alex Ovechkin is my pick to win the award.

Nobody came close to matching his 51 goal total from last year, though Stamkos likely would have been up there had he been healthy. But what’s especially impressive to me is the fact that he did it without relying on a particularly high 5v5 shooting percentage. While only 20 of his 51 goals were scored at 5v5, it looks to me like there’s a basis there for continued success. Even his 5v4 shooting percentage was middle of the pack among Washington Capitals.

What does all this tell me? Alex Ovechkin shoots a lot. I don’t think that will change under Barry Trotz. There might be a little bit more emphasis on defense, but Alex Ovechkin will still be Alex Ovechkin. Even if he doesn’t fire the puck as much, I’d expect his even strength shooting percentage to tick up towards his career average.

There won’t be any shortage of goals coming from the “Great Eight’s” stick this year.

Ryan Wilson: Steven Stamkos

For me the Rocket Richard Trophy comes down to two candidates, both obvious. Steven Stamkos or Alex Ovechkin. These guys are goal scoring machines and prove it every year. Why Stamkos over Ovechkin? I believe Stamkos is in a better situation on a better team. Capitals have a new coach in Barry Trotz who isn’t exactly known for offense. Jon Cooper will be entering his second season with the Lightning and Stamkos was putting up offense under him last year. Last year Stamkos was scoring goals at a .68 goals per game rate while Ovechkin was right there at .65. I expect Stamkos to stay healthy and edge out Ovechkin for total goals next season.

Recent posts

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Predicting the Hart winner

Predicting the Vezina winner

Predicting the Norris winner

Predicting Conference winners

Predicting a couple disappointment teams for 2014-15

Predicting a couple surprise teams for 2014-15

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