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Preparing for the draft: Research and Preparation |
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One of my favourite months of the year has arrived, September. On Thursday September 18th training camps open, which is not all that exhilarating, but it’s the first step towards puck drop. After getting physicals and having a few days of bag skates to knock the rust off, the players hit the ice on Sunday September 21st for their first preseason games.
Looking ahead to your upcoming fantasy drafts, it’s important to get yourself prepared as best as possible. It’s surely worth putting in the additional amount of preparation and effort so that you feel confident making every pick, even the depth players and sleepers in the later rounds of the draft. Having a print out of the top 275 projected point players from nhl.com is a great way to get started. Personally, I like to print out one copy for each of my pools – plus one extra. For example I am in three pools; therefore I print 4 copies of the top 275 players.
Grab a couple highlighters, one colour for forwards and one colour for defenseman. You will only use the highlighters on one of the print outs, which will be your master sheet that you want to keep for all of your fantasy pool drafts, as you will highlight all of your researched/preferred player selections. For the blank print outs, you will need these for your draft day(s). Get a pen or a black marker and as players get picked during the draft, cross them off so you know they are not available. Keep in mind, not all fantasy drafts are able to be set up online, so this method works for all types of fantasy drafts.
When analyzing players it is very important to consider factors beyond the traditional fantasy scoring categories. You must keep in mind it’s not always the best player points wise that will produce the most for you fantasy wise. Looking at potential line mates the player will be playing with is very important and should not be overlooked. When selecting mid to late round players it is wise to select players that will be playing with high end talent and will likely see their stats improve because of it. For example, a guy like Dustin “pancakes” Penner last year started the season on a line with Getzlaf and Perry. He wasn’t exactly on fire, but this is the type of player you can draft in the late rounds who is going to do well for you. Penner had 32 points in 49 games and is now a free agent. This shows a mediocre/average player who can’t even get a contract the next year thrived playing on a line with two all-stars. Now be sure to keep an eye on who will be playing with these two elite players this season and I promise you they won’t disappoint. Will Devante Smith-Pelly thrive in this role, or will Dany “the heater” Heatley thrive on this high ranked Anaheim number one line? Some other examples of average players playing with top line talent include:
How about Tyler Bozak between Phil Kessel and James van Riemsdyk? Bozak is a great example of a player who is playing on a high end production line with a lower value than your average first line center.
Will Brad Richards end up between Patrick Kane and Brandon Saad, or will Andrew Shaw? I am thinking Brad Richards has a huge season and you can grab him in the middle to late rounds.
Dustin Brown is coming off another Stanley Cup win, however his point total was pretty weak last season. (27p in 79 games), but he will likely be playing all season with Kopitar and Gaborik. Brown had 14 points in 26 playoff games and is a valuable two way player, will he garnish more than 50 points this season? I have a feeling Brown is going to have a 55-60 point season and will be a great mid round pick.
In addition to line mates, the team the player is on is a huge factor to consider as well. For example, if you have two guys you feel are similar in skill/output, and one of them is on the defending Stanley Cup Champions team, and the other is on a lottery team…odds are from a Fantasy perspective you are going to want go with the player on the better team. The better teams will likely have a higher Goals For/ Goals Against ratio, which will in turn result in more opportunities for points and should also help out in the plus/minus category.
There are of course many other things to consider when conducting a deeper analysis of potential fantasy picks. Assessing which players are going to get first line power play time, and which are going to be out there killing penalties is equally important for PPP and SHP categories. Some of the best players to go for in the draft are the ones who are able to produce in every type of category. Jonathan Toews to me is one of the best overall fantasy players you can draft. He does it all, power play, shorthanded points, always a high plus minus and most importantly leads the Blackhawks team to victory. He should have no problem putting up 70+ points this season, and this exactly why he should be considered in your top 10.
Now of course a top 10 player is easier to assess than someone in the sixth or seventh round of the draft. This is exactly why you want to be prepared to draft a variety of players from top of the draft order, right to the bottom. The key is to be as prepared as possible to draft the right player when it comes to your turn, as you have no idea what players will be taken before it gets to your turn. This is exactly why highlighting forwards in one colour and defense in another colour all the way down the top 275 helps a lot when drafting so that you are not going to be fumbling for a pick when it’s your turn. So to get yourself prepared for your upcoming drafts, this is the route that I suggest taking…
Thanks for reading; I will have a number of players to discuss in my next blog.
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@lucasneilson84
Blogger •Fantasy Hockey Expert • 
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