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While shooting percentage can vary from year-to-year depending on who certain players are playing with and the volume of shots they take, it's generally a pretty telling stat if used properly.
For example, if a player shoots 8% on average, then one year jumped up to 15% while taking a similar amount of shots, generally it's a safe bet to assume they'll regress back to around 8%. On the flip side, if a career 8% shooter scores on 2% of his shots one year, you can expect a bounce back season the following year.
We saw an example of that last year with Ryane Clowe. In 2011-12 he shot 7%, then dipped down to 2% during the lockout shortened season before rising to over 5% last year.
With that in mind, here are some notes on Henrique, shooting percentages and more:
- Adam Henrique looked to have taken a big step forward offensively last season while potting a career high 25 goals, but there's reason to be skeptical of him repeating that success. After shooting 10% and 9% during 5 vs 5 play in his first two NHL seasons, Henrique jumped up to over 15% last year. Unless his shot averages go up, he probably won't be able to duplicate his full strength success in terms of goal totals. Given he's averaged 5.3-5.7 shots/60 minutes throughout his career, I'm skeptical his shot volume will increase enough to make a difference. Again, more shots, power play ice, etc. could help him score a similar total, but don't expect him to shoot 15% again. I'd say 20 goals is a reasonable expectation, but 25-30 is likely too much.
- I was looking through Dainius Zubrus' numbers, and that guy is a weird character. He's shot at least 10% during 5 vs 5 play in six consecutive seasons, and topped out at 13% in that span. Every full season he's s scored 10 full strength goals or more, so he's likely a safe bet for that kind of production again in 2014-15.
- Kind of funny that the Devils sent a camp invite to a puck distributing center in Scott Gomez, who they hope can still be a top-9 guy, when they traded one last year and he's still available for nothing. That guy is Andrei Loktionov, if you didn't catch on. He suffered a shoulder injury at the Worlds, which likely is part of the reason he remains unsigned, but I'm real interested to see where he ends up. He's quite skilled and his underlying numbers suggest he can be a top-9 forward at the NHL level, so I hope he gets a chance somewhere.
- Lastly, you have to wonder if Ryan Carter will soon resort to accepting a camp invite or signing on with a team elsewhere. I'm in the belief the Devils want him back but he was waiting for the team to clear out a forward or two to make room for him, and they still haven't done so. He wants to return to the team, but if he can land a contract elsewhere he may have to take it. He can't stay in limbo forever.
Devils posts
On Tomas Kaberle
On Scott Gomez
Waiting on Eric Gelinas
A look at the NHL's best F/D duos
A look at the NHL's best forward duos
Jackets posts
On Johansen, Horton and shooting percentages
Sonny Milano, Blue Jackets haven't talked contract
Are things about to get ugly between Blue Jackets, Johansen?
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