In my 20+ offseason questions, this was number 15. Should the Rangers look to extend Carl Hagelin now rather than waiting? Which was the real Hagelin, the one who struggled at times during the year or one who excelled in the playoffs?
This is wrote I wrote in June 2013, when Hagelin first became a restricted free agent. You could almost replace the date with today's and much of what I said then would be true now. New York inked Hagelin, who had no arbitration rights, to a two-year contract worth $4.5 million, $2.1 in year one and $2.4 in year two. We now head into year two, meaning Hagelin, if unsigned, with be a RFA but this time with arb rights.
Hagelin - the key question, and one that has yet to be answered, is what type of player Hagelin is. Is he a top-six player or one that best fits on the third line to provide energy and some scoring? The first few years he has fallen into both groups, with no clear answer as to where he really stands. When paired with Stepan and Rick Nash, he showed bursts of that talent, but the question as to his hands and finishing ability, which have existed since he was drafted, remain. I hate using this context again, but Hagelin's production could rise with the new offensive system to be put in place. His speed creates chances, and the new system maximizes the use of speed to lead to more scoring opportunities. As Hagelin is coming off his ELC, a bridge type deal until he proves for sure as to what he is - top-six or third liner - makes sense. If a true believer, then go the extra year, but I would think two years and around $3 million makes a lot sense, but as said, I could see going higher
When Hagelin signed that two-year bridge deal, he was coming off his ELC, which had a cap hit of $875k. He played much of the 2012-13 with a torn labrum in his shoulder, for which he underwent successful surgery that June and sidelined him 10 games to start the 2013-14 campaign. Once Hagelin returned from that injury, he was a stalwart in the lineup, playing all 72 regular season and 25 playoff games.
Hagelin had an okay regular, notching 17 goals and 16 assists in 72 games. He likely would have hit the 20-goal mark, if not for the season-opening injury and year-end slump, where he had just one goal and four assists the last 13 games, adjusting to new linemates. Hagelin flipped the switch on the late-season slump, scoring seven goals - second to Martin St. Louis - along with five assists in the Rangers run to the Cup Finals.
To me, it seemed like every time New York needed or wanted something to happen, Hagelin kickstarted them. His speed kept the opponents on their heels with his speed, while also showing the grit many of us were unsure he had in winning battles along the boards. Hagelin was one of the team's main penalty-killers, playing solid positional hockey, then using that blazing speed to create short-handed opportunities. His ability to shift up-and-down the lineup is a positive and a negative for him. The positive for him is that coach Alain Vigneault can just plug him in and he knows Hagelin can handle the change. The downside is that Hagelin can get lost in the shuffle and then pigeonholed on a line that doesn't maximize his talent.
Hagelin, who won a Silver Medal with Sweden, is a homegrown product, who played at the University of Michigan. He was never used on the power play by former coach John Tortorella, a pattern that continued under AV. With the Hagelin the question is the same that it has always been: if he has the hands to go along with his premium speed to be a scorer? I don't think Hagelin, especially given the role he is in, will ever be a 30-goal scorer. But what he showed last year, at times during the regular season and especially in the playoffs, where he finished third in shots behind Rick Nash and Brad Richards, is that 20-25 markers should be easily within reach.
The dilemma now for New York is what to do with him? Do you try and sign him now and hope you get him cheap before his breakout? Was what was on display during the playoffs and aberration and he will settle in to the 15-18 range? If you think the latter, do they try and capitalize on what he did in the playoffs and deal him to potentially fill other gaps and/or open spots for others in the system?
My view is that his penalty killing skills can't be overlooked or weighted too high, especially with Brian Boyle gone. AV can put Hagelin with Dominic Moore or Derek Stepan or Nash or St. Louis or Matthew Lombardi and know that he has a solid unit; one that can turn D into O and score shorthanded. In addition, I believe Hagelin started realizing how good he could be in the playoffs. I think the light went on for him and we should see a spike in his scoring, not to 30 goals, but if paired with the right linemates, 25 could be within reach, but playing on the third line may make that a stretch.
The questions then are what type of dollars should be in a deal and for how long should Hagelin be signed? He is finishing off a two-year contract worth $4.5 million, $2.1 in year one and $2.4 in year two; so the AAV is $2.25.The Rangers have to offer him a deal worth at least 80% of that amount but that is pretty much a foregone conclusion. In arbitration, if Hagelin breaks the 20-goal mark and has his usual fine play on the penalty kill, a substantial raise would be what he asks for and likely receives. New York has Anthony Duclair, Pavel Buchnevich, Adam Tambellini, Danny Kristo and Ryan Haggerty in the pipeline, not to mention Kevin Hayes and JT Miller, each of whom could open the season in New York with the parent club. Due to those possible options, GM Glen Sather and asst. GM, Jeff Gorton have to factor in their potential arrival in any contract for Hagelin. While I believe several of those names will play on Broadway, others currently there will be gone, so that "pipeline" should not preclude a deal with Hagelin. Plus, Hags ability to play up-and-down the lineup, means he could play on the third or fourth line and still be an effective member of the squad.
To avoid future arbitration and lock up someone I think will have that breakthrough campaign many of us believe he can have, I would give Hagelin a two-to-three year deal with an AVV of around $3.5 mil. I would offer him $3 mil, then $3.5 mil and $4 mil for the three years. If that isn't enough, I could see raising it slightly but not much more, given the other names about to come on-board, plus raise needed for Stepan and Mats Zuccarello along with deciding what to do with Marc Staal. If the view is he solely is a third-liner, then go short-term in the deal, but if that is the prevailing thought, a trade can't be ruled out if his salary demands down the road exceed his role on the squad.
As a reminder, please let me know if any topic you want me to cover in a blog. The two I have received to date and will cover are:
MDW7413: Curious to know who you think will have a good year, average year, and who might have a down year.
RANGFERDANGER94: Would be cool to see your own personal top 10 prospects list
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