Over the last few weeks, I’ve noticed that a bunch of lineup predictions have been strewn across the comments section. It’s that time of year. You’ve all looked at the roster, and now you’re piecing together your perfect lineup. It’s my turn now. Today begins a multi-part series that will culminate with me revealing my ideal Lightning lineup for 2014-15.
One of the first things I tried to do when figuring out where to put players was look at who worked well with whom over the last year or two.
I’m working with the assumption that Steven Stamkos, Valtteri Filppula, Tyler Johnson, and Brian Boyle will be the team’s four pivots. While you could certainly make the argument that Johnson fits well with Stamkos, I don’t think you can disagree with the notion that the lineup is more balanced with Johnson as the third-line center.
Let’s start with the first line. The Stamkos line.
The toughest thing to work with here is the potential addition of Jonathan Drouin. The ultra-talented winger is set to make his NHL debut this year, and many believe that he’ll be riding shotgun with the best Canadian goal scorer in the game.
We don’t have any evidence to suggest that the two work well together. We don’t have any past performance to gauge. All we have to work with is ‘feel’ for potential. Given everything we know about Drouin, and everything we’ve seen from Stamkos since he was drafted back in 2008, it’s hard not to believe that the two will fit nicely alongside each other. Even without any numbers to back me up, I’m going to slot Drouin in on Stamkos’s left side.
That leaves one spot open on the top line.
Among forwards with whom Stamkos has spent more than 100 minutes of time at even strength over the last two years, only two remain with the Lightning. Tyler Johnson and Alex Killorn are part of a small club that once included Marty St. Louis, Teddy Purcell, Ryan Malone, and Cory Conacher. Seeing as I’ve already penciled Johnson in as the number three center, Killorn is the only one left to analyze.
The numbers don’t lie. Stamkos and Killorn work well together. Stamkos’s 5v5 Corsi percentage away from Killorn is 49.3%, compared to 56.0% when lined up next to him. Naturally, you’d think that I would put these two together. I’m not going to.
Rather than Killorn, who is naturally a leftwing or center, it will be Ryan Callahan who will suit up next to Stamkos and Drouin. It took some convincing, but certain commenters here finally brought me around to the idea of having Callahan on the top line. It gives Stamkos and Drouin, two finesse/skill players, a linemate who will battle in the corners and do the dirty work. It allows Cooper to give Drouin two veteran linemates. It creates more balance on the rest of the roster.
The other options to put on that right side are Nikita Kucherov and Brett Connolly. While I’ve long been in favor of seeing Connolly on a line with Stamkos, I do agree that putting Connolly there with Stamkos and Drouin is just asking for trouble. There’s too much youth, too much inexperience, and too much that could go wrong.
I still plan on getting Connolly into my lineup. You’ll just have to wait and see where he fits.
Mike’s First Line: Drouin-Stamkos-Callahan
Next up I'll be building a second line. Let me know who you have penciled in on your first line in the comments section. As always, thanks for reading.
Michael Stuart has been the Tampa Bay Lightning writer for HockeyBuzz since 2012. Visit his archive to read more or follow him on Twitter. 
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