It dawns on me that I really didn't put my own thoughts on the MacArthur signing into yesterday's post, but I'll reiterate what most people have already said: it's a pretty good, maybe great deal. I think I ruminated here a month or so ago that I would've been most comfortable with a 4x5 sort of deal, carrying MacArthur into his age thirty-three season. Buying one year on the back-end for a few more years of solid production now seems like reasonable compromise to me, though.
As for MacArthur: he's a top-six forward, has been for quite some time, and last season's
explosion in production was not particularly surprising. His counting numbers have always been respectable -- he's now scored twenty or more goals in three of the last four seasons, yet his contract still feels a tiny bit devalued thanks to Randy Carlyle induced deflation in the lockout season.
Which, of course, worked out extremely well for Ottawa on the first deal, and still seems to have a bit of an effect on this deal. Does anyone sense MacArthur signs at $4.65MM AAV x 5 if he's scored twenty in four consecutive years? I think there's a raise in there, for sure.
Anyways, you may or may not be convinced by the raw counting numbers that he's a very good player. Here's another angle to consider. I went ahead and compiled the list of forwards over the last three years who have: (a) played 40+GP in each season; (b) posted > +5.0% RelativeCorsi% in each season. These parameters should very quickly isolate on players who consistently drive play, and suspicions should also be that this group of players, on average, are your league's most talented bunch.
You'll notice MacArthur in that group, along with a bunch of elite first-line forwards. Now, MacArthur will never be mistaken for a winger like Perry. But, this is an excellent group to be in -- and I think it speaks volumes about a few other guys who also strike me as excellent, perhaps undervalued talents like Jake Voracek and Andrew Ladd.
So, what does the future hold for Clarke MacArthur? Probably double-digit shooting percentage (though I suspect his EVSH% is going to come down a touch from last year), ~ 50-point production per season, and a generous percentage of the shot-share, which should translate to savory on-ice goal rates.
It's a good deal.
Ottawa Senators Blogger • 
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