Like most people, I'm interested in seeing how Kyle Turris performs with Jason Spezza gone. There's a lot of reasons to be concerned about the current roster, but Turris and his group (presumably Clarke MacArthur and Bobby Ryan) should again be one of the league's better first-lines.
Now, it's hard to not notice that all three enjoyed perhaps an unreasonably positive
on-ice save percentage last year, which really spiked their Goal% as a unit. That said, I think there's something in possible deployment that could somewhat mitigate a potential regression there.
Namely, seeing the Erik Karlsson pairing get a bit larger portion of their minutes with the Turris group. This is something that didn't even exist in 2012-2013 during Turris' first year as the team's 1LC (through Jason Spezza's injury), because Erik Karlsson was shelved for the most of the year with an achilles tear. Last year, the two saw a decent number of minutes together.
Here's the two-year with/without data. You can start to see where Turris helps Karlsson, and vice versa.
Now, a lot of this makes intuitive sense. Corsi% is always going to be better to look at here than Goal%, and everyone's now more than aware of Karlsson's (and Doughty, and Subban) ability to spike the shot-share needle regardless of who he's playing with. Even a great line like Turris' benefits from Karlsson's appearance on the back-end.
What's maybe more noticeable is how Karlsson saw such a weak percentage of the goals (despite a great percentage of the shots) away from Turris. I'd say part of that is the fact that the 'other' players on Ottawa really drag him down to an extent, but I'd also say that part of it is that the Turris group is so responsible defensively, they insulate Karlsson and allow him to play that more wild-style kind of game, where he's at his best. Him playing that game with guys like Milan Michalek -- it's probably not ideal. And Karlsson, of course, deserves a cut of the total blame when that occurs.
Karlsson's low Goal% away from Turris really isn't concerning in and of itself -- it's a thousand minutes, most of which were played in the brutal 2013-2014 season where it all went wrong. That said, I think there's a sensible argument to be made that pairing Turris up with Karlsson is a good trade-off for both parties. The Turris group enjoys more offensive zone time and a larger portion of the shot-share; Karlsson gets help defensively, can roam a bit more, etc. etc. etc.
And, it goes without saying, but you'd like the Corsi% and Goal% to mirror each other. Disparities between the two suggest something's up, and that's sort of what you have in the away splits.
I'd expect the two to play closer to 50% of their EVTOI together, and I think they'll be just fine. It's most everyone else that worries me.
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Ottawa Senators Blogger • 
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