HEXTALL ON THE POTENTIAL AND LIMITATIONS OF ANALYTICS
On the day he was announced as the Flyers new general manager, Ron Hextall explained his philosophy on the proper place for using analytics in today's NHL. In a nutshell, Hextall said that he felt data can be mined to determine areas where the team can hone in on specific areas of strength and weakness. He also cautioned that he did not believe in over-emphasizing analytics.
Said Hextall, " You still need eyes on hockey players. You need that. I don’t think that will ever change, but the analytics – I wouldn’t say it’s a huge part – but it’s going to get bigger and bigger."
At the recent Flyers
Season Ticket Holder Meeting, Hextall was asked to get a little more specific about his views on the uses and limitations of analytics. He was quite candid in his explanation of what the organization will and won't do with advanced stats.
On one hand, the general manager said there was "not a chance" that he would make or rule out a trade or roster acquisition based specifically on the data from commonly cited analytics such as Corsi or Fenwick. On the other hand, Hextall said that he believes strongly that forms of analytics, including proprietary analytics culled within the organization, could be mined to help the coaches identify areas of needed adjustment and to communicate them to the players.
Hextall cited the specific example of offensive zone entries. The Flyers general manager noted that top teams in the NHL enter the attack zone an average of about 93 times per game. The Flyers, conversely, averaged just 73 offensive zone entries per game. This is an area the team needs to significantly improve in 2014-15, especially if it is to improve its even strength goal differential.
Earlier this offseason, the GM said that stronger puck possession is a goal the team will impress upon players from day one of training camp and goes hand in hand with the heavy emphasis on skating, conditioning and discipline. Along with maintaining attention to detail within Craig Berube's center-lock system, these things have a cumulative effect on spending less time defending and more time attacking.
At the season ticket holder meeting, Hextall opined that zone entry data is something that can be used in communications with players to give them a very clear sense of how the team is doing and where it needs to get better.
Said Hextall, "When you actually start showing players this type of data, there’s a reason why we entered the zone 73 times. We’ve got to make it a goal this year to get into the offensive zone -- [perhaps to an average] 83 times -- and that’s data. It doesn’t lie, it’s a fact. Rather than coaches saying, ‘We gotta get the puck, we gotta create more turnovers, get the puck up ice and get going.' .... All of a sudden you say, 'A top team does it 92 times and we’re doing it 73, we gotta get better,' it’s data, it’s fact."
In other words, rather than communicating with hockey platitudes such as the "need to "work harder," Hextall wants to identify these same old-fashioned objectives in ways that can be tracked, measured and communicated.
This end-user focused method of using analytics is something that Flyers players ought to embrace (actually, they'd better embrace it if they want to remain here because the new GM is clearly serious about it). It's actually easier for a group of players to wrap their head around what a coach wants of them when he says "We need to get the puck in the offensive zone tonight at least X number more times than we have in each of the last five games" than when the coach generically demands they work harder.
In further explaining how he sees the role of analytics, Hextall cautioned yet again that he does not believe advanced stats can be "used as your top job" in crafting a team. It also has be kept in mind that hockey is a fluid, fast-paced sport and not a static one like baseball.
A good example of the context of what Hextall is talking about here is something that I heard Rick Tocchet (then a Flyers broadcast studio analyst, now a Penguins assistant coach) discuss during the intermission of a game played last season. The studio segment showed a lengthy shift in which the opposing team had the Flyers hemmed in their own zone and generated several shot attempts.
"I know the fans get antsy but if I was coaching this team, this shift wouldn't bother me all that much," Tocchet said. "Look here, everything is kept on the perimeter. It's contained. Yes, there's a failed clear up the wall here and that needs to be cleaned up, but there's a quick recovery. They blocked a couple shots and the one that got through, Mason saw all the way. This was pretty good defense here, actually. No real good scoring chances. Mason froze the puck. They could get their line change."
Of course, no team wants to be forced into too many shifts like the aforementioned one, even if this particular one was handled well from a defensive standpoint.
Over the course of an average game and especially over the course of a playoff series, the more time a team spends in its own end of the ice, the more it gets fatigued and the more likely there are to be breakdowns. The more failed clears and turnovers in dangerous areas of the ice, the more a team is forced into containment mode. Likewise, even when penalties are killed successfully, an excessive number of penalties can wear a club down in subsequent five-on-five shifts.
Hextall has thrown down a gauntlet to the team to start doing a variety of little things better, in conjunction with the system and conditioning/skating regimen that Berube demands. Analytics are one piece of the puzzle. Individually, these things may not make much difference but they add up in combination.
WEDNESDAY QUICK HITS
* Speaking of the use of analytics in hockey, if you have not already read the
Sporting News article that HockeyBuzz's Travis Yost wrote on Dallas Stars' general manager Jim Nill, it is a must read.
* Yahoo's Sunaya Sapurji wrote an
interesting profile of new Toronto Maple Leafs assistant general manager Kyle Dubas. In the piece, Flyers prospect Brandon Alderson talks at some length about the role Dubas had in helping him improve his game when Dubas was general manager of the OHL's Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds. Alderson credits Dubas with instilling some of the traits that enabled the undrafted player to eventually sign with the Flyers as a free agent.
* On a somewhat related note, former NHL player and Team Sweden general manager Johan Garpenlöv started an interesting Twitter discussion about how today's game is changing as specifically relates to defensemen.
In a somewhat tongue-in-cheek post, Garpenlöv wrote in Swedish, "It must be nice to be a defensive defenseman. You don't have to be creative, just consume [space], eliminate your man on the side boards and play physical then you're good."
The Garpenlöv post -- which got re-Tweeted by Flyers prospect Robert Hägg, among many others -- started a dialogue about the skill baseline to play at the professional level.
Wrote current player agent and former pro player, coach, and team manager Gunnar Svensson in reply to Garpenlöv, "Yeah, but the market for that role is shrinking. Hockey is requiring ever-widening skills."
* Flyers Alumni birthdays: Defenseman Danny Markov turns 38. Goaltender Bruce Hoffort turns 48.
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