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Frolik Deal Leaves Many Questions & No Answers

July 29, 2014, 12:29 PM ET [25 Comments]
Peter Tessier
Winnipeg Jets Blogger •Winnipeg Jets Writer • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Today the Winnipeg Jets announced that they had come to terms with restricted free agent Michael Frolik on a 1 year, $3.3 million deal. The ensuing social media uproar was as to be expected.

In fact the launched grenades of contempt towards the deal, and Frolik’s agent Alan Walsh, were almost being deflected as if you were Matt Leiblof TSN 1290, almost. Here is the problem that many Jets fans are struggling with; they don’t take the words of Frolik’s agent Walsh as honest and true. In a statement through Gary Lawless, that was read on TSN 1290 today, Walsh said Frolik was committed to Winnipeg and the team and wants to find a solution to play here long term. The spin was that the two sides ‘ran out of time’ and did not want to get into the arbitration hearing.

They have had time since the middle of April. That’s three months.

Take the analysis of those comments a bit further and you will see that Frolik’s side said nothing about the joy of playing with childhood friend Ondrej Pavelec. A key aspect of any apologist’s defense of the contract and Frolik’s apparent desire to play in Winnipeg is his relationship with Pavelec, yet not a whisper of it from Walsh. This is from the same guy who was a DA in Los Angeles and an expert at preparing witnesses and making statements on behalf of clients. Walsh is the agent for both players and he said NOTHING about this oh so very important friendship. Is that not curious?

Then there is the aspect of Frolik’s now impending free agency as of July, 1, 2015.

If the Jets are once again fodder for the Central Division and the rest of the Western Conference does Frolik even want to stay beyond this season?

This simply may be a warning shot across the bow of the Jets ship steered by captain Chevy. ‘Get this team in order or I’m taking my services elsewhere’. Can you blame him? Frolik has tasted Stanley Cup success with Chicago and he knows what championship teams contain, as should Andrew Ladd and Dustin Byfuglien in case you don’t remember.

Does he believe that exists in Winnipeg or will in the near future? A one year deal can suggest he is cautious.

There is also the argument about ‘knowing what Frolik is’ before signing him long term, as suggest by Liebl. He’s played 430 games in the NHL- what more did they need to see to decide if he’s worth the risk of longer term? Why was that concept of sample size not brought up when Pavelec signed his deal of five years with only 187 games and a save percentage average of .902 in those 187 games! Bogosian had only played 297 games before a seven-year commitment by the Jets. The sample size argument simply does not wash as the Jets have been all over the map on what they have used as evaluation periods for players and team. Brian Little got five years and Blake Wheeler got six all while playing less than Frolik before the long term deals were signed, but I digress...

The problem Jets fans are debating right now is simply this: what exactly is the plan here? Is Frolik not seen as valued member of the team? If he is should he not be paid like one?

That thought leads to another apologist’s defense of the deal. ‘The Jets don’t want to pay him for term if he is nothing more than a 3rd line winger’. Well, he played almost half the season on the first line. After Mark Scheifele, Frolik played with Little and Ladd the most. He also carried Scheifele as when the rookie centre was away from Frolik his possession dropped by 5%- surely that has some value. If you look at that link(please do) there is only one player who had a better possession rate when apart from Frolik- Grant Clitsome. (min 100 mins played together). In fact Frolik makes his teammates better at puck possession.

It’s not Frolik’s fault he played on the first line. That is on the coach for usage and GM for depth of a roster that requires a third-line acquisition to get first-line minutes and succeed with them. Just like it was not Stuart’s fault he was a bottom pairing defenseman playing top-four minutes this past season. (By the way, he received a four-year deal with a 48% increase at age 30.)

Speaking of age, Frolik is 26 and while he may have just past his peak in terms of production he still makes others better at what they do. One of the aspects about the concept of RFA is you have some leverage and that is now gone with Frolik being a UFA at the end of this deal- so was Chevy betting on a decrease in production? If so what does that say about the team he is building if one of his best acquisitions is set to decrease production after one season? Regardless, next year the UFA market will value Frolik higher at age 27 so why wasn’t Chevy prepared to pay for those years? Perhaps, Walsh but… age and sample size didn’t stop him with Wheeler, Little or Bogosian.

If production is a concern then look at THIS list and scroll to number 67. That is where Frolik sits on points per 60 minutes played last season. Ahead of Eric Staal, Anze Kopitar, Pavel Datsyuk, Marty St, Louis, Ryan O’Reilly and Jordan Eberle to name a few. Here’s the same search with players who played a minimum of 2000 minutes or more the past 3 seasons and Frolik still stands up well. He may have hit his peak but is he going to drop off the face of the earth? I’m not of that belief, especially if the team is improving.

Right now that’s a big ‘if’ with the Jets and their lack of influx of new talent versus retaining what is known. I wonder if Chevy feels he made the Jets better because ‘if’ he’s betting on a decline in Frolik’s production and play I think that speaks more to the team he has put together than the player. In that case, I’d take a one year deal and get our of Winnipeg too.
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