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New Jersey Devils CHL Prospect Data

July 25, 2014, 10:40 AM ET [49 Comments]
Todd Cordell
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Training camps for CHL teams open in just a few weeks, so I figured now would be as good of a time as any to look back at how the Devils' prospects fared across the CHL last season.

I graphed some data earlier this summer on the subject, but in this post we'll be looking at some additional numbers, as well as how the Devils' recent draft picks played for their respective teams.

Below you'll find a variety of statistics used to help measure exactly how productive each prospect was last year.



Note: ETOI = estimated time on ice. AS = all strength. ES = even strength. QoC TOI = quality of competition based off estimated time on ice. For QoC, 27 is poor competition, 28 is good, 29 is very good and 30+ is generally elite. All numbers via ExtraSkater.com.


Now, there's a lot of data there so I'll highlight some notable items:

- One thing pretty easy to notice is that players from past draft classes generally fared much better than the players the Devils selected this year. There's two reasons for that; 1) generally older players are much more successful than younger, lesser developed - in terms of body and skill - players and; 2) the Devils didn't draft many offensive minded players in June. More so No. 1 than No. 2, but you get the idea.

- John Quenneville is clearly the cream of the crop from 2014. He faced good competition for a 17-year-old, and fared quite well. His goals for percentage of 51 is encouraging, especially given his team only potted 48.5% of the goals when he wasn't on the ice. His scoring rates were fairly good, too.

- Connor Chatham posted a -0.6 goals for% relative to his team despite playing tough minutes against opposing team's top players. I'm not sure how much offensive upside he has, but when a 17-year-old is trusted to play the opposition's best and doesn't get his teeth kicked in any more than the rest of his team playing lesser competition, it's pretty encouraging.

- As a 19-year-old, Brandon Baddock played limited minutes and didn't do overly well. His GF% was fairly high, but that's the product of playing on an elite team, as his GF% relative numbers suggest. Edmonton scored 6.8-10 goals when Baddock wasn't on the ice, and 5.6-10 when he was despite Baddock playing the softest competition possible. I continue to be puzzled by that selection. Maybe he'll be a 4th liner in the NHL, but that's his max potential. I like going for players with more upside, especially when the forward cupboards in the system are pretty bare.

- I admittedly have never seen Ryan Rehill play live, and when he compared his game to Douglas Murray after the draft my stomach turned. That said, when looking at the numbers it appears he may be more than a defenseman who likes to hit and takes a lot of penalties. Playing against average competition, Kamloops was able to score 4.5-10 goals when the scored just 3.5-10 without Rehill on the ice. He didn't set the world on fire, but his 20 points was a respectable total for a 17-year-old blue liner. I wouldn't expect too much, but he's worth keeping an eye on next year.

- The last guy I'm going to touch on for now is Damon Severson, only because the Devils expect him to compete for an NHL roster spot this year. I'm in the belief he doesn't have anything left to accomplish in the WHL - he's dominated for years - and his numbers back it up. Kelowna scored almost 7-10 goals when he was on the ice last season, despite him playing tough competition. Considering the sample size was significant - he played over 40% of every game - that's exceptional, especially given he averaged over a point per game including the playoffs. This guy is going to be good.

Devils posts

On Travis Zajac and Mike Cammalleri

Pete Harrold is a more than adequate No. 7

Data suggests Schneider will be top-tier goaltender over next few seasons

How much is Eric Gelinas worth?

Jackets posts

On Ryan Murray and James Wisniewski

Contract talks between Blue Jackets, Johansen progressing

Data suggests Sergei Bobrovsky will be among NHL's elite

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