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Setting Realistic Expectations for Tomas Hertl

July 13, 2014, 4:58 PM ET [21 Comments]
Franklin Steele
San Jose Sharks Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
If the Calder Trophy was awarded to the most outstanding rookie through the first two months of the season, Tomas Hertl would have ran away with the trophy without much of an issue last year. He entered the NHL with minimal expectations last season but ended up clicking on a top line that included Joe Thornton and Brent Burns.

The trio was unstoppable for a time. Hertl scored 11 points in his first 13 games, including a dazzling four-goal performance against the New York Rangers on October 8 that just about any Sharks fan will remember clearly. In case you need a refresher:

Hertl didn't cool off in November either, continuing to produce points at a rapid pace. He added another five goals and five assists through 13 games played, bringing his total to 13 goals in just 26 contests played. Not bad for a rookie.

The former 17th-overall draft selection staggered a bit in December, and then had his marvelous first year cut short by a nasty knee-on-knee check from everyone's favorite L.A. King.

The youngster eventually returned from that collision on December 19, but not until April. Hertl appeared in nine contests before the end of the regular season, tallying two goals and three helpers. Not a bad bounce back, but not quite as electric either.

On the whole, Sharks fans would be wise the temper their expectations for the sophomore, as forwards tend to struggle during their second year of competition anyway.


There are a few other factors that could prevent Hertl from notching 25-30 goals—a total that would have been reachable through a full 82-game campaign for the Praha, Czech Republic native had Dustin Brown not swooped in.

For starters, teams start developing "the book" on players after they've been around the NHL for a year or two. There's plenty of video tape floating around after one season, and squads will be able to notice and then capitalize on any bad tendencies in Hertl's game. Last October, he had the element of surprise. In a game like hockey, unfamiliarity can lead to extravagant results. That's not to say that Hertl's goals were flukes or that he doesn't have the talent to score like that. He clearly does.

It's just that video coaches live for this stuff, and they'll have a game plan that includes breaking down Tomas Hertl's tendencies in 2014-15. At that juncture, it's up to the player to respond and find new areas on the ice to get to. It doesn't sound tough, but many a promising player has been flattened by not being able to move away from evolving pressures out on the ice.

There's also a lot of off-ice stuff going on in San Jose. Hertl seems like a pretty unassuming kid, kind of happy-go-lucky and filled with joy to be in the NHL—as he should be. Will the situations with Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau distract the 20-year-old? Asking savvy veterans to ignore explosive scenarios like this is one thing. Hertl is a vet of all of 37 games, and could potentially be caught off guard by a trade or the rumors themselves.

The Sharks don't have psychotic media coverage, but tough questions will still be asked through training camp and the early stages of the season. We're speaking in hypotheticals here, but would anyone be surprised if Hertl struggled a bit in 2014-15? He set up some pretty lofty expectations by scoring at a hasty pace before getting knocked out for a majority of the 2013-14 campaign.

It's a weird kind of storm that could have some fans and pundits believing that Hertl is primed for a 60-point season. While he definitely has that kind of talent and should realize those kinds of numbers eventually, expecting him to do so this season will only lead to disappointment.

Keep in mind that this isn't a prediction. If Hertl comes out and scores 15 times in the first two months of 2014-15, good for him and great for the Sharks. This is just a call to maintain realistic expectations for Hertl as the campaign progresses. Everyone loved the kid when he was scoring at a torrid pace. Keep treating him like that and we'll surely see a confident top-six player evolve out of the ashes of a rookie season that was cut short.
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