If you want the intro and context, I worked through the details of the Canes current roster situation and needs that I posted
HERE earlier today. If you hate build up and just want to get to the goods, then read on below.
I identified 4 Canes needs. I think 3 of these (top 9 C, top 9 RW, 4th-liner) match up with GM Ron Francis' shopping list. I am not so sure the last (top 4 D) does. Everything that I read seems to suggest that Francis thinks another depth addition is enough on defense. My hope is that this will prove to be the 1st of many instances in which Ron Francis proves to be a bit more wiley than his predecessor knowing that the trade market is his most likely source of help on defense (free agent list is thin even with Ehrhoff and Del Zotto added), so he chose not to tip his cap and hurt his bargaining power. Much better to play the "I will take that big contract from you but only for next to nothing in return as a favor" versus "I must add a top 4 D and you have 1 of my limited options at your disposal."
At a basic level, I think Ron Francis might be served well to talk to a ton of players early to keep options open, to move quickly on adding 1 forward so he is not woefully short if the market moves against him, but also being patient for a 2nd addition. My hunch is that the lighter salary cap and a decent volume of UFA forwards will see some players not find a seat in the initial game of musical chairs and have to take lower offers similar to what happened to Ron Hainsey last year. On defense, I think it is tougher. Michael Del Zotto and Christian Ehrhoff's recent additions to the pool increase the options, but even with them added I think it will be a tough market to add top 4 defensemen.
So with that, here are some names (in order by position not ranking):
Top 9-capable right wings:
For both this slot and the center position, I think the key is to be opportunistic and catch a decent bargain or 2 once the bidding wars, pushes up to the salary cap and games of musical chairs stops. Unlike at D where I think there is a shortage of true top-tier (or even good 2nd tier) options, I think there are actually enough decent, even if imperfect forwards to go around.
1-Ales Hemsky. If teams value him like he played with Ottawa, then I do not think I would pay up. If, however, everyone reverts back to considering him untouchable like when he was an every event (draft, trade deadline, summer free agency) trade rumor in Edmonton and his price falls, I actually like him for a short-term deal (2 years?) for a discounted price. The guy oozes offense and of the playmaking variety. I could see him being a playmaking RW on an Eric Staal line (think Stillman or Whitney) freeing up Semin to play with JStaal, or I could see him being a complementary playmaker on a 3rd line built around Skinner that preys on any weak matchups they see.
2-Nikolai Kulemin. He fits the bill of big (6-1 225 lbs) and with some offensive ability and brings versatility in his ability to play either wing. The negative is that his scoring has plummeted over the past couple years making him look more like a checking line plug, but some advanced stats people will tell you that at least part (if not more) of that is usage/role. He brings needed size, decent 2-way play and in theory scoring upside probably for a reasonable price.
Top 9 centers:
3-Brad Richards. I commented on Twitter after his buyout that he reminded me a bit of the 2005 Ray Whitney. He is a good player who just had a bad contract. If Richards wants to play for a contender for a discount, the Canes have no chance. If he wants the maximum contract he can get in terms of $ and years, the Canes also have very little chance. But is there a chance that he might just be happy to get out of the bright lights and media spotlight after a rougher run lately in New York. He is not the player he was 6-7 years ago, but he is still a decent playmaking center who can also run the point on the power play.
4-Mathieu Perreault. Wild card. He would be a wild card for sure, but should also be very cheap. I think you could almost equate him to Andrei Loktionov as a young offensively skilled center who is a little undersized and has not completely carved out a long-term place in the NHL. He was due to make only a little more than $1M but Anaheim passed. He is not so much a complete player, but what does he does have are wheels and offensive playmaking ability. IF Peters sees it my way with Skinner leading a scoring-opportunistic 3rd line, decent complements would be a playmaking center who can play at Skinner's tempo and a big RW who can skate and play a solid 2-way game. Could that be something like Skinner/Perreault/Kulemin which might also still leave room for 1 more higher-end player for either EStaal's line or the blue line?
4th-liners capable of PK duty:
5-Jay McClement (4th line). It seems that Malhotra is leaving in search of a 2-year deal. If he does not find that, I guess there is a chance he would come back. McClement might be a better fit anyway. I think he has a bit more left in the tank through an 82-game season and can fill the same role of taking key defensive zone draws and filling the faceoff slot of a penalty-killing forward set.
6-Vernon Fiddler. He is nothing incredibly exciting, but for the right price, he fits the definition of a reliable, safe veteran 4th-line center like McClement.
Top 4 D:
I am on record as liking Ehrhoff and even his strange previous contract. There is nothing long with Niskanen either. But alas, I do not see the Canes winning a bidding war against seemingly better competitive options for the few top defensemen available. I think if the Canes are to get a top 4 D, it is more likely to come via taking someone less than perfect and maybe a bit overpriced via trade (like the Garrison deal).
A couple options:
7-Braydon Coburn. I said it before the draft, and I am sticking to it. He is either the most likely player to join the Canes via trade. The Flyers are up against it cap-wise. Once they realize that no one is taking Lecavalier's contract, Coburn is part of the 2nd tier especially if their shopping list includes any defensemen. Like any top 4 defenseman available via trade for less than a king's ransom, he is far from perfect, but he is a fairly well-rounded, veteran but not old player with legitimate top 4 experience and decent all-around skills.
8-Kyle Quincey. I honestly do not know details on Quincey, but he fits the general job description as a decent size, mobile puck-moving defenseman. The biggest wild card here is that he played under Peters who ran the defense in Detroit. Peters can scout him and assess fit for the Canes and his system better than anyone. If he likes him, we will know when ink goes to paper.
9-Michael Del Zotto. Wild card. He is arguably the highest risk/reward option on the market for what should be a reasonable price. He had a rough 2013-14 season that saw the Rangers more or less quit on him and then the Predators decide not pony up a modest sum to qualify him. There is the risk - in spades. But the upside is that he is a skilled defenseman of the offensive variety that COULD fit next to Hainsey (even though he is a left shot). He still a very young 24 years old already with 317 games of NHL experience. And if you project out the lockout-shortened season he has 3 seasons in the neighborhood of 40 points (41, 37 and 21 in lockout season). This is clearly the kind of move that usually looks either brilliant or stupid and nothing in between. Who is in for a white knuckler?
I feel like I could make a huge list of forwards who could work depending on price. Given the Canes combination of volume of needs and limited budget, I think Ron Francis is going to need to take a page out of Rutherford's book and find a couple inexpensive gems in the leftover pile once the big market teams battle it out and spend to their caps.
I say give me Coburn via trade, 1 high-end offensive player on the cheap (Hemsky ...?) and 1 other decent top 9 with some size (Kulemin), and I am willing to take our chances the core of the roster can be much better.
What say you? What does your target list look like? Are you okay with just adding a depth defenseman as Ron Francis seems to be suggesting? Do you also think we need a top 4? Do you think that Francis actually agrees and is playing it quiet? Do you think there is any chance that the Canes land a bigger name, or am I right that they will mostly be shopping for value in the 2nd tier?
Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63
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