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Carolina Hurricanes 2014 Free Agency Blog Part 1: The needs

June 30, 2014, 9:29 PM ET [4 Comments]
Matt Karash
Carolina Hurricanes Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
I have posted some of this as parts of other blogs, but let me use this 1st blog to spell out more directly my thoughts on the Canes current roster needs.

Goalie:
First and most simply, the Canes are set in net. After all of the drama and suspense over the weekend, Cam Ward is still a Cane, and per comments by Ron Francis, he is likely to still be so come September. He said it more subtly, cryptically but my interpretation of his recent comments suggest that I had it pretty much right HERE. Put bluntly, no one else wants his contract either. With 2 starters in tow, Justin Peters will test the free agent waters looking for a 1-way deal. Good for him. I hope he gets it. As much as I would like to have him back as a #3 on a 2-way deal, I appreciate what he did last year and his attitude, effort and perseverance that got him to this chance.

==> If Peters cannot land a 1-way deal, I think there is a decent chance that the Canes would be willing to be highest bidder (most guaranteed AHL money) on a 2-way deal to keep proven depth and fill out the AHL roster. Otherwise, the Canes should be able to position themselves as a top destination amongst the veterans that have to settle for 2-way deals (think Dan Ellis 2 years ago).

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Forward:

With news today that Loktionov and Bowman were not qualified, the Canes forward situation looks like this:
--Potential top 9 LW-Skinner, Tlusty, Gerbe.
--Potential top 9 C-EStaal, JStaal.
--Potential top 9 RW: Semin, Lindholm
--4th-line+depth: Nash, Dwyer.

First, the thing that jumps out at me is how incredibly thin this group is. It is the same problem as last year except maybe worse. As of this moment in time, I have no idea how the Canes will fill out a playoff-worthy top 9 especially 3rd line. The Canes have only 7 top 9 forwards and unless 1 of the aging prospects (Terry, Boychuk) or new kids on the block (Rask, McGinn) rises up, the system has little in the way of answers. What is even more concerning is that even getting to 7 counts Lindholm as NHL ready as an every night top 9. He had enough moments to show that potential, and he did look more comfortable toward the end of the season, but put directly, he just was not an NHL top 9 anything but fleeting moments in 2013-14. Also, there is the same is as to whether dynamic and proven great scorer Jeff Skinner can finally mature defensively to become a great player. Until this happens, I still see him as a great pieces of a scoring-first 2B line whose ice time is driven by matchups not an every shift battle against another team's 1st or 2nd line. On a team with more offensive depth, this narrower role for Skinner could be workable, but on a Canes team without enough depth, I do not see how GM Ron Francis will be able to assemble enough scoring talent to use my 2A (defense first built around JStaal) and 2B (offense first built around Skinner) approach. Instead, Skinner is likely to be thrust back into the top 6. If in this role, he tracks toward a minus 25 or 30 at even strength (regardless of goal totals) as in the past, it could be a key component to another long season for the Canes.

==>So when I net it out, I think the Canes could stand to add 2 top 9 forwards and a specific skill 4th-liner:
--Big, mobile RW with enough offensive ability to plan on a scoring line with either Skinner or EStaal.
--A playmaking C who could play with Skinner on a 2B scoring line or even possibly with EStaal on the 1st line.
--A veteran 4th-liner (probably a center) who is decent in the faceoff circle and could pair with Patrick Dwyer or Riley Nash to form 1 of the 2 penalty kill units.

With these additions, I think the Canes lineup looks something like this:
Tlusty/EStaal/New
Gerbe/JStaal/Semin
Skinner/New/Lindholm
Dwyer/New/Nash
Depth from Charlotte

(Cue the people who are going to restart the "How can you put Skinner on the 3rd line?" cry. I have been incredibly consistently since before Jordan Staal even wore a Canes uniform. Regardless of the Skinner debate, the Canes are 3 deep at LW, so you can shuffle however you prefer without changing the necessary additions.)

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Defense:
I think this is probably the area where I am likely to differ most from Ron Francis' plan. Part of that is out of financial necessity, budget limitations and prioritization of needs. Right now the Canes have:

Faulk/Sekera
Hainsey/Liles
Harrison/Murphy
Depth from Charlotte also with the possibility that Bellemore still returns after testing the free agent waters.

If Liles gets more comfortable in a Canes uniform (remember when he joined, he was taking on a new system and teammates mid-season at the same time he was trying to shake off rust from being on the shelf mostly), I think there is a chance this could work. But this is the same kind of could work that lost a season to rushing Jamie McBain into a top 4 slot after a decent short stint the season before and also the same kind of could work that saw the team seek and never find historical magic with retreads like Aaron Ward and Joe Corvo. Defense, especially the top 4, is not something to chance. A mistake here can be enough to sink an entire team and season. So getting back to the point, I think the Canes need another defenseman NOT of the depth variety but of the top 4 variety or at least top 4 potential (with experience) variety. I think the reverberations of not having this could be felt throughout the entire lineup. Player by player:
--Sekera. When he missed even a couple games the Canes were way short on defense.
--Faulk. As much as he is ahead of schedule, he struggled mightily at times during the 2nd half of the season. Because of lack of depth below him, there was no way to dial back his minutes or bump him down a notch on the depth chart when he needed it. Instead, he was tossed to the sharks.
--Hainsey. He had a good 2013-14 campaign, and the Canes are better with him back, but he leans defense and safety 1st. That works great with more of a puck-moving partner but with a stay-home non puck carrier in Bellemore next to him most of the season, the Canes too a step down in terms of ability to generate offense off the rush. He could benefit from a complementary partner with a little more puck-moving ability.
--Liles. Especially if he can build up a bit from last season, I like him as a veteran offensive defenseman. There is even a chance he could return to a top 4 level. But that is basically rolling the dice not something the team should count on.
--Harrison/Murphy. Especially if 1 of them gets pushed to the #7 slot, I am fine with this group in terms of depth. It gets even better if Bellemore returns meaning that Murphy either plays his way into ice time in Raleigh or otherwise gets in Charlotte ready to return only if needed.

==>Everything that I read seems to suggest that Francis is focused on the holes at forward and thinks that adding a depth (think 3rd pairing) defenseman will be enough for the blue line. I still think the Canes need to add another top 4 with trade being more likely than free agency, and I still like my pre-draft comment that Braydon Coburn would be my most likely trade to happen.

I will separately put up a list of 10-12 names to fill the holes.

Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63

Go Canes!
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